Liberia: Why Joseph Boakai Won; Analysis Of Results Of The Runoff Election

The Liberian National Elections Commission (NEC) has declared Ambassador Joseph Boakai the November 14, 2023, runoff election winner. He defeated the sitting president, George Weah. This is Liberia's fourth presidential election since the country's civil war ended.

In the first round of the election on October 10, Weah led slimly over seven thousand votes. He won overwhelmingly the Southeast region and led in Grand Bassa, Rivercess, and Bong Counties. Meanwhile, Boakai dominated votes in Nimba and Lofa and narrowly won Bomi, Garpolu, Margibi, Grand Cape Mount, and Montserrado Counties.

In the runoff, though Weah increased his votes in the Southeast, Rivercess, Grand Bassa, and Bong and improved votes in Lofa and Nimba Counties, he failed to increase votes in Montserrado, a county in which he once served as a senior senator. That inability primarily caused his defeat. Nationally, Boakai won 814481 votes, constituting 50.6% over Weah's 799,391, amounting to 49.3%. Overall, Weah lost by 20,000 votes, a minimal margin. Before NEC declared Boakai winner, Weah gracefully and honorably conceded defeat. The local and international communities praised him for the move, an exceptional exercise uncommon in African presidential history. Indeed, with the closeness of the votes and as president, Weah could have used his influence to turn the number in his favor. But he did not for fairness and peace's sake. Observers rated the election as being fair, peaceful, and transparent. Boakai deserves tremendous credit. With negative criticisms and propaganda against him, he was undisturbed and came victorious.

WHY BOAKAI WON

Many factors contributed to Boakai's victory, chief of which are the following four:

1. Prince Johnson's support
2. Weah's failure in Montserrado
3. The failure of Weah's trusted officials
4. Civil service workers's resentment

Senator Johnson influenced Boakai's selection of Senator Jeremiah Koung as Boakai's running mate. This move enabled Boakia to win Nimba, the second-largest county in Liberia. Indeed, Johnson has been Nimba's senior senator for 18 years. Nimbians considered him their Godfather. Koung is also a senator from Nimba.

Johnson was instrumental in former President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf's 2011 re-election and Weah's 2017 election. Moreover, Nimba had the second-largest number of registered voters for the 2023 election. As an earlier article indicates, a candidate with substantial votes in Montserrado, Nimba, and Bong Counties stands an excellent chance of victory. The numerical strength of these counties from NEC's voter registered data resulted in this statement. Boakai won 74% of the Nimba votes, though Weah improved his votes in the county in the runoff compared to the first round.

Weah let his guard down in Montserrado County. He should have concentrated on Montserrado during the runoff. Know that the county had 36% of the election registered voters. That was the highest percentage. The overlook in the runoff was likely due to complacency. My last article discusses this point thus:

"There is less enthusiasm in the runoff compared to the first round. The parties have reduced campaign activities. This could be a factor of complacency or finance. In 2005, after George Weah won the first round, he campaigned less, relaxing and thinking that he had already won the election. Sirleaf came from behind to win the runoff."

Weah's campaign should have known that Boakai led in Montserrado in the first round. Weah needed to focus and canvass harder in the districts Boakia had won in round one. This failure and the Nimba votes cemented Boakai's win.

Many observers noted that some of Weah's officials were untruthful to him regarding their loyalty to his re-election. Some of his supporters complained that campaign money given to some officials for field workers was converted to personal use. Further, some officials paid lip service to the campaign.

The opposition misinformed and negatively propagandized the civil service workers concerning the administration harmonization policy. The Sirleaf government paid some government officials up to US$ 30,000 monthly, while some workers made less than US$125. This led to an acute income disparity. The Weah harmonization program cut the high income, creating a relatively balanced payment structure that enabled the employment of additional workers. However, a side effect was the temporary delay of some salary payments. The opposition branded the policy to be unfair to civil servants. This resulted in the anger of many civil service workers toward the government and reduced their votes for Weah.

Another factor, though silent, was the administration's blatant violation of the Constitution by enacting the dual citizenship bill. In the 2020 Midterm election, the Liberian people massively rejected dual citizenship as one of the many government-sponsored referendums. Despite the refusal, the administration influenced the legislature to pass a bill amending the Alien and Naturalization Laws granting dual citizenship to Liberians who willingly chose foreign naturalized citizenship. Weah, an advocate of dual citizenship, signed the bill into law.

Opponents argued that supporters wanted the bill for self-interest, for some advocates have children or family members who are naturalized citizens abroad. The violation caused voters anger. Consequently, most of the lawmakers who backed the bill lost re-election. Indeed, the bill sponsor, Representative Acarous Gray, and Senators Vanneh Sherman and Cummini Wesseh lost.

Another element is that some analysts see Weah as a victim of what can be called an "Elitist Perception," a view of entitlement. It maintains that a particular class of Liberians should rule the country. The prescribed rulers should be the products of leading learning institutions. One of them is CWA, an established secondary school that has historically produced the country's leaders. Therefore, an individual not of this class who by chance becomes a ruler should be rejected in any way possible.

These analysts look at Samuel Doe's and George Weah's presidencies and indicate that the establishment battled against them because it felt that they did not belong to the class and viewed them as uneducated and unsophisticated. Doe, with a poor native background, joined the army and became head of state due to the coup in 1980. That takeover removed the settler elites that had long ruled Liberia from power. Likewise, Weah, with a similar background, became a football player and eventually president under the banner of a grass-roots party. Though they acquired an education and made infrastructural contributions to Liberia, the elites considered them incompetent. Doe's opponents removed him by bringing the civil war. They killed him. Weah did not resist removal but peacefully relinquished power for now. Indeed, many of the principal participants of the war alleged cheating and threatened civil crisis if Boakai lost.

Other analysts question this narrative, indicating that the Liberian society gives leadership opportunities to all without prejudice.

GOVERNANCE AND CHALLENGES

Now the election is over, the incoming Boakai administration must deal with governance and the challenges ahead. First, the new government must realize that the votes indicate a divided country; about half of the electorates voted for either party. Boakai must bring the nation together and reconcile the people. Additionally, the Unity Party (UP) lacks presidential and legislative mandates. It holds a third place in the legislature, while CDC holds first and the independents second place. For instance, the CDC has 27 seats in the House. It needs 10 independent representatives to form a controlling block for the speakership. But the new administration will try all means to have the position. The office holds the gavel and appoints heads of committees. In 2007 UP took the speakership, even though it lacked the number. Through President Sirleaf, the party removed the previous speaker, Edwin Snowe. Despite winning the Supreme Court ruling, he did not fight. The party selected Alex Tyler as the speaker. Snowe, who was elected as an independent, joined UP. The party later removed Tyler. He is now senator-elect for Bomi County. Snowe is also a Bomi independent senator.

Prince Johnson will endeavor to influence the administration for his role in Boakai's election. Meanwhile, Boakai's inner circle will attempt to resist Johnson. Some will see him as an obstacle whose association with the administration would embarrass the regime regarding US-Liberia relations. America has placed sanctions on the senator, including other officials. He was a former rebel leader who killed Doe and accusingly murdered many, including the American nurses.

Johnson has stated on tape that Boakia is sick and would be unable to function as president, giving power to VP-elect Jeremiah Koung. Hence, Johnson will control the presidency independently. Further, according to Henry Costa, Boakai intends, upon inauguration, to travel abroad for medical treatment for a while. But this is Costa's revelation.

The incoming administration must deal with the bread-and-butter issues of the Liberian people. If the Sirleaf government did well and the Weah did better, Boakai must be the best. The tasks will be challenging. Under the Sirleaf-Boakai regime, inflation was in double digits. The administration admittedly failed to fight corruption and unite the people. According to Boakai, the regime squandered opportunities. Boakai must be his own man. He will have no excuses.

How do people think about Boakai? Those who know him well see him as an easygoing guy. He will not hurt you but will not help. His CWA schoolmate, the late Willie Knuckles, willed his social skills to Boakai in the school yearbook. At the boys' hostel or dormitory, Boakai mainly associated with his Kissi tribe men. In later life, others viewed him to be tribalistic and vindictive. But others give him high marks for being uncorrupted and honest.

Upon NEC's declaration of him as winner, Boakai stated that under his government, Liberians "will be prosperous and receive everything that they have been yielding for." But he also said that he will review why things are hard, such as the cost of rice and other foodstuffs. In the first 100 days, he intends to have no cars block major roads.

Boakai plans to implement his campaign promises to audit the Weah administration and fight corruption. The Liberian people look forward to the new administration. Some observers have advised that the government must manage expectations, for high expectations could lead to disappointments. The coming ruling party, UP, will face criticisms from the people and opposition groups, particularly CDC. The opposition will keep the government's feet to the fire just as UP did as an opponent.

However, Boakai has received many congratulatory statements from world leaders, including President Joseph Biden and Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The international community and others have congratulated Liberians for conducting a peaceful election. Boakai has called all Liberians to join him in making the country a better place for all.