Liberia: The 2023 Presidential Election Analysis; Who Will Win?

On October 10, 2023, Liberians will go to the polls to elect a new president. There are 20 candidates, including current president George Manneh Weah. He was elected six years ago. Either the Liberian people will retain or replace him. Also among the candidates is Joseph Boakai, former vice president under President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who led Liberia for 12 years. Boakai unsuccessfully ran in 2017, but Weah defeated him in the second round. Boakai vows to win this time.

This article analyses the three leading candidates in their campaigns and indicates which one would win. First, some information on the candidates might be necessary to repeat. Weah entered politics in 2004 as the standard bearer of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC). He lost the 2005 election in the second round after winning the first. Weah ran again unsuccessfully in 2011 as vice standard bearer to Winston Tubman. After returning to school upon his first defeat, he ran as a senator for Montserrado County and won by a landslide. Weah won the presidency by defeating 20 other contestants. In the second round, he defeated Boakai overwhelmingly by capturing 14 of the 15 counties in Liberia. Before politics, Weah was a former soccer star, winning African, European, and World best. He holds a master's degree.

Joseph Nyema Boakai has been in government for over 40 years. He first worked as head of the Liberian Produce and Marketing Corporation under President William Tolbert. He served as the Minister of Agriculture in the Samuel Doe government and as managing director of the Liberian Petroleum Refinery Company under Amos Sawyer interim presidency. Boakai is a quiet and peaceful person. He has a bachelor's degree from the University of Liberia.

Alexander Cummings is a former Coca-Cola executive. He worked in the corporate sector for over 20 years. He entered politics in about 2015. He became the political leader of the Alternative National Congress (ANC) and the standard bearer for the party in the 2017 presidential election. Although he has not worked in government, he was appointed by President Sirleaf to the board of the Booker T. Washington Institute (BWI). Cummings lost in the 2017 election, but he took second place in the Montserrado County votes. Additionally, lacking government experience does not equate to the impossibility of winning a presidential election. As known, in the US, Donald Trump lacked government practice but won the election. ANC is now part of the Collaborating Political Parties with the Liberty Party. Cummings has a master's degree from Clark-Altanta University.

The CDC-led government has made many development tangibles, including building more roads and hospitals and improving education and the economy. It makes tuition to public colleges and universities free and constructed public housing and markets. However, corruption continues to be a major problem. For instance, the US government has sanctioned three Liberian officials for corruption. Further, Weah failed to personally and politically fight corruption. He failed his previous campaign promise to institute war and economic crime court in Liberia. However, the other candidates have problems. For example, some observers say Boakai has difficulties making decisions and cannot solve problems and reconcile. Under his watch, he could not resolve the breakaway issue and unite the CPP, indicating his leadership inability.

Moreover, others view him as unkind, not giving freely, and having health problem. UP appears to have financial difficulties. Unlike when it was in power, the party had been unable to pay its headquarters rent. In this election, it has few campaign billboards and other materials compared to the ruling party.

THE CAMPAIGN
Weah worked harder than the other candidates. Besides leaving the country to attend the UN assembly, he campaigned consistently. He visited many remote areas, such as traveling to the Southeast with bad road conditions. Boakai did not travel to that area. Additionally, the CDC had more resources at its disposal. This is seen by the many vehicles, campaign advertisements, and programs displaced. The party implemented more Jehovah's Witness campaigns from door to door. The party maintained its coalition with other political parties and had a regular radio program called The Voice of the Coalition. This exercise informed the public regarding the campaign and spread the party's message. More campaign songs were produced and sung over the country than by the other camps. Particularly in the campaign's last few days, the opposition made many inflammatory remarks that brought public condemnation.

However, the opposition has campaigned virtually. Many of its parties have published their platforms and debated the issues. They have kept the government's feet to the fire.

POLLS
While opinion polls are not 100% accurate, in most instances, they tell how a campaign is doing and how the public feels about a candidate. Most polls in Liberia are unscientific. Their sample sizes are smaller, and people call in to give opinions. Nevertheless, polls can provide an indication regarding public views. OK FM radio conducted a poll in Nimba before the campaign. The survey showed Weah leading in that county. Before the campaign, the station did another poll in Monrovia, pointing to Boakai winning. But during the campaign, its poll in Monrovia showed Weah leading Boakai and Cummings. A public survey by a credible international firm indicates Weah leading comfortably over Boakai and Cummings. Though a CPP official familiar with the poll questioned some of its elements, he agreed with the findings. However, he believed the survey confirmed Cummings was doing well.

Again, a campaign should not put all its eggs in polling. Survey results may be flawed. In the 2016 presidential election in the US, Hillary Clinton led Trump in most polls. But in the end, Trump won, stunning political pundits and election experts.

THE NUMBERS
Polls and crowds do not vote and are not final in determining an electoral victory. What matters is the number of votes cast. Based on NEC's statistics, Montserrado, Nimba, and Bong counties have the largest registered voters. They constitute about 57% of the total national registered voters, with Montserrado having 37%, Nimba 12, and Bong 8. In other words, a candidate who wins a substantial number of votes from these counties will have an excellent chance of victory. The rest of the 12 counties have fewer registered voters. Nimba and Bong will be battlegrounds. Their votes will split. Tewon Gongloe, Weah, and Boakai will divide Nimba's votes. Boakai is included because of the Jeremiah Koung factor. Koung is Boakai’s vice running-mate and is from Nimba. As stated in the last update, analysts predict that either Weah or Gongloe will take first place in the county's votes count. Weah could take first place in Bong, considering Jewel Taylor's and Jeremiah Slonteh's factors. Taylor is from Bong County and is Weah vice standard bearer. Boakai would take second, based on Senator Prince Moye's account. Montserrado is a Weah-CDC stronghold. Therefore, Weah should do very well, receiving about 60% of the votes. Weah would take the Southeast and significant votes from the Western region, including Bomi, Grand Bassa, and Rivercess.

Interestingly, Lofa is a battleground, though it is Boakai's birthplace. This is unlike in 2017 when Boakai's influence dominated the county politics. By culture, Lofains consider him an uncle or father. With the Thomas Fallah impact and the government development activities in Lofa, the county prefers development over culture. Consequently, Boakai is less influential than in 2017. The recent special senatorial election in Lofa attests to this analysis. Hence, Weah could do well in Lofa.

With the above, the development of tangibles, and the opposition disunity, Weah would do much better than the other candidates in this election. But pre-election analysis could be a mere intellectual exercise. Elections have a way of functioning differently from the human mind. We can predict and hope the projection will materialize.

The election could go to a second round. While the opposition would prefer a second round to unite, the goal could be problematic and challenging. Usually, some opposition members tend to support the winner of the first round, as happened in 2011 and 2017. Indeed, in 2011, Charles Bromskine of the Liberty Party, Togba-Nah Tipoteh of the Liberian People's Party, and other opposition leaders supported President Sirleaf. 2017, the primary opposition parties' vice standard bearers and key members backed Weah. Historically, in Liberia, since 1980, no ruling party has lost an election. Moreover, as Front Page Africa publisher Rodney Sieh stated, if the opposition can not unite before or during the campaign, it would be unlikely in the second round.

Yet, the above does not mean that records can not be broken. Liberians and the international community hope for a fair, free, peaceful, and transparent election. The election will start at 8AM to 6PM. Results should be coming in about 9 PM.