Why I think that Nigeria will not intervene in Niger [Expanded]

First, Nigeria hasn’t gotten the money to squander on stupid military misadventures. It is virtually a bankrupt nation, ran aground by the insatiable greed of its otiose political elites. Long-suffering Nigerian workers have tried to ameliorate their depressing economic situations by calling for numerous strikes.

Nigerians cannot remember the last time their economic outlook had look gloomier!

The question for the “analysts” who argued that Nigeria as the “Giant of Africa” should project power is: In which parallel universe do these miseducated buffoons inhabit? Anyone who is not cocooned behind an academic wall, and has traveled around the ECOWAS subregion will not know that Nigeria is considered a Failed Lilliputian.

The delusions of grandeur, while true in the 1970s, are long gone. No thanks to the sad parade of insatiably greedy and corrupt leaders that misruled the country!

Even if Tinubu were to magically conjure up the money, how will he sell his intervention to very angry and restless Nigerians who find it difficult to put garri (one of Nigeria’s cheapest staple food) on the table? How will he justify expending humongous money to send troops to go and rescue a French puppet in Niamey?

Let’s also not forget that even the legitimacy of Tinubu’s presidency is yet to be determined by the tribunal. A leader whose election is being hotly contested is hardly one to give preachments on the sanctity of democracy!

Let’s also not forget that the alacrity with which Tinubu rallied to become the loudest Chihuahua of the West’s interests in Nigeria only lead credibility to the perception that the West had some heavy dirt on his past shenanigans which they might release to spoil his case at the Election Tribunal

Second, and more importantly, any stupid mistake to invade Niger will engulf the whole of West Africa in uncontrollable firestorms! Anyone who lives in West Africa will be aware that the region sits on a tinderbox!

Third, any intervention will not carry popular support; the politicians have hugely disappointed the people. No dividend has been redounded to the masses from their huge investment in democracy!

Honestly, the spectacle of ECOWAS leaders in their expensive Agbadas (flowing gowns) and their ultra-expensive foreign-made limousines calling emergency meetings not to discuss the economic plight of their sub-region, or the abysmal (almost sub-human) poverty of a good portion of their citizens is just unconscionable.

The question beggared is: Do these so-called leaders have no shame at all? Do they not see how ridiculous they look to the rest of the world, as they huff and puff over the termination of one of their members in the country that is widely considered the poorest in the West?

Fourth, Per International law, the only body which is authorized to sanction a military intervention in a sovereign country is the United Nations Security Council.

How will Tinubu and his fellow dreamers get a UNSC vote without Russia and China vetoing them to kingdom come? Or, will they allow themselves to be goaded by their curators in the West to compound their folly with more illegality?

Do these leaders forget that the ECOWAS was supposed to be an Economic Union of Sovereign Nations? Or, which provision of the ECOWAS Treaty gave them, or anybody, the power to intervene in the internal affairs of a member - militarily or otherwise?

Fifth, the very suggestion of military intervention in Niger has already shredded any notion of ECOWAS unity; it has split the organization, with Mali and Burkina Faso saying that they will consider any attack on Niger as a declaration of war. Both Algeria and Egypt (with powerful armies) also said that they will not countenance any intervention by ECOWAS - they, (unlike the ECOWAS leaders) probably remember the effects that the destruction of Libya had on their countries.

Today, Cape Verde publicly voiced its opposition to any attack on Niger. So, where does that leave Generalissimo Tinubu who wants to play Napoleon?

Another question: Will Tinubu risk an African World War so early in his presidency?

Sixth, The Ethnic Factor: Like in almost all of Africa, European cartographers who shredded the continent in 1884 paid no heed to the national/ethnic composition of the societies they arbitrarily carved into the colonial garrisons that they called countries. The result is that many tribes have more loyalty to their tribal groups than to these colonial inventions called countries. In the case of Nigeria, the Hausas formed large segments of the population of both countries. It is difficult to imagine the Hausa in Nigeria slaughtering their people in Niger on behalf of a French puppet.

The Senators from Northern Nigeria managed to persuade their colleagues to reject Tinubu’s warmongering stance. The governors of the Nigerian states that border Niger have come out to denounce any threat of war. Many tribal and religious leaders in the North have all come out against the war. Yesterday, the city of Kano witnessed a mammoth rally against war.

What type of democratic leader would Tinubu be were he to ignore his citizens' rejection of war and launch his war? The question an honest observer should ask is what democratic credentials does a man like Tinubu, whose secret police, the DSS, routinely ignore, courts' orders? Two examples are those of pro-Biafran leader, Nnamdi Kanu, who was illegally abducted in Kenya, and the former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele.

Perhaps, more importantly, the major question that Tinubu failed, so far, to articulate to Nigerians is: What dog does Nigeria have in Niger’s internal affairs?

Apart from a desire to satisfy his handlers/curators in the West, why exactly does Tinubu want to wage war on Niger?

ECOWAS Misleaders should not doubt that the words of the junta leader in Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traore: “A slave that does not rebel does not deserve pity. The AU must stop condemning Africans who decide to fight against their own puppet regimes of the West.” resonates greatly with the African masses.

Tinubu and his fellow leaders should come out and tell West Africans why we should continue to give away our national patrimony to foreign concerns at thieving prices. They should also inform us what their understanding of independence and sovereignty is if foreigners control our natural resources.

Lastly, it is simply beyond belief that ECOWAS appears to lack the intelligence to know that only foreign arms merchants will reap any benefit from any confrontation in Africa.