What does the future hold for the NPP in Dome Kwabenya when Hon. Adwoa Safo decides to run as an Independent candidate?

Hon. Sarah Adwoa Safo's name has become a household staple in Dome Kwabenya, earning the trust of her constituents and commanding one of the largest constituencies within the NPP fraternity.

Following her defeat by Prof. Mike Oquaye (former speaker of parliament) in the 2007 primaries, she didn't relent and contested in 2011 with the son of the very retired Hon. Oquaye she had lost to in 2007. In this primary, Adwoa Safo secured victory, earning the NPP ticket for the general election in 2012. Despite the challenges, Hon. Safo clinched the seat, garnering 63,373 votes (63.75% of the total valid votes cast).

Moving forward to 2016, she emerged victorious in her parliamentary primaries, 'beating' her main competitor, Mike Oquaye Jr. In the subsequent general election, she secured 63,488 votes, constituting 67.99% of the total valid votes cast. Notably, she increased her vote tally by 115 in numerical terms and 4.24 percentage points.

However, the 2019 parliamentary primaries proved to be a more demanding battle against her chief rival, Hon. Mike Quaye Jr. This time, it was a head-to-head contest between the son of the speaker of parliament—who also served as an MP in the same constituency—and the daughter of Apostle Dr. Kwadwo Safo, an influential and respected clergyman.

Furthermore, the then-Hon. Deputy Majority Leader retained her parliamentary seat by securing 496 votes compared to Mike Oquaye's 488. With a slim margin of 8 votes, this outcome underscored her continued popularity and the desire of Dome Kwabenya for her leadership. In the general election, despite tensions between her camp and Hon. Quaye Jr.'s, she won, accruing 75,041 votes (58.4%). Although, in nominal terms, she increased her votes compared to previous elections, it didn't reflect percentage-wise due to population growth.

2023 Primaries:
Based on the aforementioned analysis, the embattled Member of Parliament—who had faced criticism—managed to establish trust and a solid rapport with her constituents, even amid challenges. Nevertheless, given all indications, the distinguished former procurement and gender minister stands a promising chance of securing victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections. This raises an important question: Will the NPP delegates grant her a fourth opportunity to serve her constituents? This question has significance and demands answers from analysts.

Then the question arises: What lies ahead for the NPP in Dome Kwabenya if Adwoa Safo loses the primaries and decides to run as an Independent candidate? As indicated by Global Info Analytics, if the Hon. MP manages to win in the primaries—no easy feat—securing the parliamentary seat will prove more challenging due to disunity. Despite being an NPP stronghold, this disunity could play an important role.

This analysis further suggests that should she lose the primaries and choose to run as an independent candidate, she could pose significant opposition to Hon. Mike Oquaye Jr., potentially leading to a runoff. If a bye-election occurs between the NDC candidate, Elikplim Akurugu, and Mike Oquaye Jr., the probability of Hon. Akurugu's winning is notably high, according to Global Info Analytics.

Although the odds might favor Hon. Oquaye Jr., winning the seat without the support of Hon. Adwoa Safo could prove exceptionally challenging.

Interesting days lie ahead in Dome Kwabenya, as Adwoa Safo has hinted that she is vying for the seat once again.

- Adjei Boakye, Junior Analyst at DefSec Analytics Africa Limited.