The Economy Need “cedi” Risk Management Not Expenditure Promises

[1.0] For the past one and half years, I have raised a case-study on the impact of forex in our daily life as well as the economic welfare of the people in Ghana, to the extent of postulating that “The one who control your wallet is the one who control your everything”. I have engaged in public lectures as well as closed symposiums of certain societies both in and out of the country.

However the exposition of this knowledge through my lectures, presented to my door, new experiences of how people react when they come in contact to an established fact and realities. I realized some of my participant and student after acquiring the knowledge chose to position themselves in a new operational dimension within a high risk economic environment like Africa to be productive. While the second set got irritated of the strategic economic imperialism of the Eurocentric agencies against Africa and finally the third set analyzed the situation to be beyond the realm and the mortal capacity of Africans and chose to resort to a faith derived from an unknown God, to take in charge of the situation at hand, believing that such God, will be the only force that could present a reliable antidote to the volume of problem exposed.

These are three main approaches I have come to know as methods use by modern Ghanaians to respond to any risk presenting itself on the negotiating table.

[1.1] In most of my lectures, I have argued on the grounds of assessing a country Ghana as part of the continent of Africa which play a cardinal role in global economic operations as well as within the frame work of Anglo-American Civilization coding.

[1.2] Research studies indicate that, the population of Ghanaians, who practically understand the significant effect of the Bank of Ghana cedies issued for domestic utilization, is only 1.7% out of estimated 26million population in Ghana, with about 70.6% attributing their state of economic failures in life to be spiritual factors, and the remaining 27.7% attributing their economic woes to the cause of the Politicians. That was an interesting revelation, when a population sample frame work was pegged at 30% out of the estimated 26 million population in Ghana within the 10 regions that comes together to form the republic state of Ghana.

[1.3] I quiet remember early 2015, I debunked the assertion of a Yale University Professor on TV3 media Platform, on the exponential depreciation of the cedi, since its inception as an adopted currency, recommending that Ghana should adopt the US-dollar as it medium of exchange. Even though I disagreed with him but in reality the question had not been solved, which has to do with the risk impact of the cedi on our daily economic activities. This define the ultimate reason behind this essay, seeking to conduct an evaluation as well as analytical test on the cedi through historical inferences for easier understanding of both developmental economist and non-economic student alike.

[1.4] To respond to the central theme of this paper accurately, two critical questions are raised which affect two major component of economic players in the market, who are

1. The Family
2. The Enterprise

Q1. How has devaluation of the cedi affected Enterprises?
Q2. How has the depreciation of the cedi affected families?

DEVALUATION OF CEDI
Before I will analyze the effect of this kind of Cedi symptom, will initially want to correct a technical reporting error caused by many media agencies in Ghana, not being able to distinguish between the uses of the economic word “devaluation” and “depreciation”. Although both terminologies used here attack a one character of the cedi, that is, the “Value” but they vary in effect and economic impact.

When a cedi loose it value against another currency of its kind, then it could easily be deduced that, the cedi is attacked by devaluation symptom. The effect of such kind of attack causes Enterprises which create jobs and transform the economic wellbeing of families, begins to shrink through the lost of profit and operational capitals. Per our basic economic science, when Industries and commerce are shrinking or unproductive, the economic market enters into the stage of stagnancy or begins to retrogress (recession), resulting in the escalation of poverty in the life of citizens.

Since the cedi was pegged to the US-dollar as at 1971, it will be appropriate to question the root cause that has led the cedi that use to be Ghc1 = $1, now turn out to be $ 1= Ghc.3.94 as at 2016. The history behind the various stages of cedi devaluation against the convertible currency is well captured by an article title “The Genesis of the Ghanaian Cedi (E. Lloyd, 2007). Establishing a deeper understanding in the content of the article, should reveal to you, all the hidden economic history untold up to date, on how every devaluation stage of the cedies had affected companies, resulted in the collapse of many enterprises as well as creating high volume of unemployment and poverty within such period.

DEPRECIATION OF CEDIES
Depreciation of the cedies is another symptom that also attacks the “value” as it has been briefly explained above. In the case of depreciation, the cedi loose it measuring “Value” per it purchasing capacity. You earn your X- salary, knowing what such money is capable to buy at that moment, only to visit the market in the next month to realize your X-salary Value could no more buy what you knew it had the capacity to purchase. In that current moment your money has reduced to Y-Value and could only buy half of what you thought your X-salary has capacity to buy.

This has direct impact on individuals, placed in this context as families instead of Enterprise. The implication is that, it does not matter the number of works you do to better your economic welfare, such kind of economic environment will cause a stagnancy or retrogression to your expected standard of economic living because the price of the market will remain constant despite the cedi depreciation, hence the standard of living will depreciate with the currency in utilization.

This is also ignored in our economic history as a country, how our fathers, mothers and some of us who have worked very hard to be able to make our life and family better but today has nothing to show off and wonder why? The only hope of some of us is to depend on SSNIT pension scheme which are not even reliable as expected, while others have chosen to sympathize their emotion with school of faith under religion. I authoritatively indicate to you on the ground of empiricism; the risk associated to the cedi is the root cause of their perceived failure today.

Finally the other two factors which I will not classify it as major but rather minor economic factors, which only come into existence when there is irresponsible policy programmes in display through political expediency, are “Inflation” and “Interest Rate”. They play around the major economic variables as “devaluation” and “depreciation” respectively. The effect of the Inflation throughout the history of Ghana currency issued by the central bank is captured by (Wikipedia; July 2016). Details of this effect could further be read from the link provided at my reference section.

[1.5] The economic history that has chosen to deny the story of hard working class of our fore fathers and mothers, who have nothing to show off as an evidence of their sweat through their labour effort, has it root cause associated with the risk of the cedi utilization. When a critical etymology study were conducted on the other few class who had made their wealth despite the exposition of the cedi risk, the findings indicated that most of the people that form the minor class generated their wealth through cronyism, plundering and very dishonest strategies.

Such has been some of the reasons that kill the real patriotism of most of our indigenous people, examining how the past has played in their life; will never want to further sacrifice any more or make wealth in a honest manner through their new generation, because it create a future with an impression that, being honest with positive intention to sacrifice never pay fruitfully.

The paramount of this whole risk associated to the utilization of the cedi domestically has empirically been proven to be derived from ambitious spending on the ground of political expediency, deficit budgeting and over spending of government with no clear investment return or productive outcome.

This kind of exercise and experimentation began from the 1^st Republic and continued down the line, with an exponential increase in government deficit expenditure having the aim of addressing infrastructural deficit and wage bills in the hope of solving the economic welfare problem of the people but end up being the worst economic package offered from one leader to another who assume the government office. Since 1957 up to date such kind of political expenditure experiment has never proved helpful but rather raise the level of poverty of the class of masses that are less skilled and educated to think through in difficult times like this. The only opportunity this kind of experimentation offer is to allow the few who have control over the currency by politico-economic means, to be powerfully rich from nowhere.

[1.6] It very sad and scary that the same promises of expenditure patterns has started with all the campaign exercise across board, without a single proposal of how the cedi risk will be managed by any political party, which has the true answer to the economic welfare of our people. In fact we want to see manifestos, campaign, economic lectures that seek to stabilize the value of the cedies despite government deficit spending.

Our people are very hard working, not lazy to be spoon-fed, all what they call to their elected leaders is to create enabling environment, for them to create their own prosperity, build their family and sustain it. And that answer is found in the “Value” of the cedi issued by the Central Bank. Hope this is not too difficult or much request from the leader we seek to elect from the next coming election season.

I shall Return………

REFERENCE
1. The Genesis Of The Ghanaian Cedi
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghanaian_cedi
3. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ghana/interest-rate

E. Tweneboah Senzu, Ph.D., DBA. CBE
Executive Director & Head of Research Bastiat Institute Ghana
Head of the African Institute of Forex & Commodity Trading
www.bastiatghana.org
[email protected]/ [email protected]
Office: 3rd Floor CCT-Fisherman House, Odorkor-Kaneshie Motorway
Institute Campus at Akwetema Road Lapaz, No. B128/27 West Ngoo-Bu