Will Finland Elect Europe’s First Openly Gay President in February Presidential Run-Off Election?

In a thrilling electoral showdown, former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb emerged victorious in the first round of Finland's presidential election, setting the stage for a gripping runoff against ex-Foreign Affairs Minister Pekka Haavisto. The last day for the election is Sunday February 11, 2024.

Before the first round of elections, the national conversation revolved around Finland's newfound role as a NATO frontline state thrust into the spotlight amidst simmering tensions with Russia and the precarious security landscape of Europe, spotlighted by Russia's actions in Ukraine.

It is almost impossible for any political party to win a presidential election in the first round in Finland because of its strong multiparty system. After the first round of elections with a voter turnout of about 75%, Stubb commanded the lead with 27.2% of the vote, closely trailed by Haavisto, who secured 25.8%. Speaker of Parliament Jussi Halla-aho trailed in third place with 19%, while Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn garnered 15.3%.

Central to the run-off election are crucial foreign and security policy issues, including Finland joining NATO, future relations with Russia, strengthening security cooperation with the US, and continued support for Ukraine. The incoming president faces a significantly changed security landscape in Europe, different from what former President Sauli Niinistö navigated in 2018. Finland's shift from military neutrality to NATO membership following Russia's actions in Ukraine has reshaped geopolitics, making Finland a frontline state in relation to Russia and this amplifies the key role of a new President of Finland.

Determining whether Alexander Stubb is a better candidate than Pekka Haavisto in the second round of Finland's presidential election involves considering various factors that could sway voters' preferences.

Alexander Stubb
Alexander Stubb, aligned with the conservative National Coalition Party, previously served as Prime Minister from 2014 to 2015 and Foreign Affairs Minister from 2008 to 2011. Stubb's tenure as a former Prime Minister may give voters confidence in his ability to lead the country effectively, especially given his experience in high-level government positions. Stubb may enjoy significant support from traditional centre-right voters or those aligned with his party (the Party of the current Prime Minister), providing him with a solid foundation of backing to build upon in the second round. Recognized by Finns as a cosmopolitan figure with pro-European leanings, the 55-year-old Stubb embodies a pro-European stance while also identifying as a moderate conservative. Stubb seems to have clear and inviting plans for immigrants in Finland, which makes him attractive to the majority of the immigrant community. Stubb has a tougher stance against Russia compared with Haavisto, who is known as a left-leaning liberal.

Notwithstanding, a major strike wave against the austerity measures of the current Finnish government, which started at the end of January, may also influence the outcome against Stubb. While domestic politics and labour relations fall outside the scope of presidential powers in Finland, these issues entered the race against the backdrop of unanimity on security and foreign policy

Pekka Haavisto
Pekka Haavisto, a former U.N. diplomat and member of the Green League, is vying for the presidency for the third time as an independent candidate. During his tenure as foreign minister, Haavisto was instrumental in Finland's historic accession to NATO, actively participating in the membership process alongside President Niinistö and former Prime Minister Sanna Marin. Known for his commitment to human rights and peace negotiations, Haavisto stands as a prominent advocate in these realms. As a former Foreign Minister, Haavisto likely possesses extensive experience in international relations and diplomacy, which could be seen as an asset in a president, especially in navigating Finland's foreign policy challenges and representing the country on the global stage. : Haavisto's reputation as a unifying figure, capable of bridging divides and bringing people together, may appeal to voters seeking a leader who can foster consensus and cooperation in a politically polarized landscape. Haavisto's charismatic personality and relatability to ordinary voters could make him more appealing and approachable, enhancing his ability to connect with a wide range of voters on a personal level.

The choice between Firsts
Haavisto’s potential election would mark a significant milestone as Finland's first openly gay president, highlighting his role as a trailblazer in diversity and representation. However, this may also affect his chances of winning, as conservative Finns and immigrants who are mostly anti-LGBTQ may vote against him. The big question is whether Finland wants to have an openly gay president. This same question affected the electoral fortunes of Haavisto in his first attempt twelve years ago.

Besides, both Stubb and Haavisto have spouses who are not originally from Finland. Whoever wins, Finland will have a president whose partner or wife is not Finnish by birth. The wife of Stubb, Suzanne Elizabeth Innes-Stubb, is a British-Finnish attorney, while Haavisto is in a registered partnership with Antonio Flores, an Ecuadorian man

Now, nearly half of the people who voted in the first round will have to make another choice between Stubb and Haavisto. The razor-thin margin between the runoff contenders marks a historical rarity not seen since 1994, underscoring the gripping suspense of the impending showdown. Despite the slender gap, historical precedent suggests that the winner of the initial round typically secures victory in the subsequent runoff, a trend embedded in Finland's electoral fabric. It is expected that Stubb will win the election with about 59% of votes.