China's carbon emissions set to drop on back of clean energy boom

China's carbon emissions are set to fall in 2024 thanks to record growth in the installation of clean energy sources, a report published Monday said.

Analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), based in Helsinki, found that China's rate of low-carbon energy expansion was now sufficient to exceed its average yearly increase in demand for electricity.

“If coal interests fail to stall the expansion of China's wind and solar capacity, then low-carbon energy growth would be sufficient to cover rising electricity demand beyond 2024,” Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA lead analyst and author of the report, said.

“This would push fossil fuel use – and emissions – into an extended period of structural decline.”

Surge in low-carbon tech

Based on official figures and commercial data, CREA estimated that new low-carbon energy capacity this year alone would generate a 423 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity per year.

That's almost equal to China's projected electricity demand growth of more than 400TWh in 2023.

The report, carried out for the science and climate website Carbon Brief, also noted China's surge of investment in manufacturing – particularly for low-carbon technologies, including solar, electric vehicles and batteries.

The country is expected to add 210 gigawatts (GW) of solar, 70GW of wind, 7GW of hydro and 3GW of nuclear power generation capacity in 2023, nearly doubling the 152GW of renewable energy capacity it added in 2022.

China's projected drop in emissions for next year comes despite the fact emissions have continued to rise this year as a result of the country ending its strict zero-Covid policies in January.

Carbon Brief said the installation of clean energy sources in China was creating an increasingly important interest group that could alter Beijng's approach to climate politics both at home and globally.