The security situation in the horn of africa

As post-election chaos escalate in Kenya , reports indicate that regional countries might be sucked into the violence that has claimed more than 600 lives and affected economies of landlocked states that depend on Kenyan sea ports. Oil prices have skyrocketed in Uganda , Rwanda , Burundi and eastern Congo which depend on the Mombasa port, a Kenyan facility, for oil and trade supplies.

But a more worrying development is the incursion into Kenya by Ugandan troops being deployed to help stem the poll-election crisis that has put Kenya on the brink of civil strife. After decades trying to destabilise Kenya , Uganda 's President Yoweri Museveni has got a major window with the disputed December 27 poll result. Museveni's budding role in Kenya was betrayed by his hurried congratulation for Kibaki following flawed elections that have been universally condemned by local and foreign observers. The message was tagged on by immediate deployment of Uganda Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF) troops along the Kenya/Uganda border and their subsequent incursions into Kenya in the first week of the post-election period.

While the government has dismissed claims of UPDF presence in Kenya, the arrest of UPDF staffer Rashid Mawa in western Kenya on Wednesday has validated them; with it is a new dynamic in the Eastern African regional security complex whose evolution Museveni has shaped immensely or even championed in recent decades. While this violence has indicted Kenya 's fabled stability to the core, Uganda 's role has shaken the policy of passive equidistance that traditionally informed Kenya 's relations with her neighbours. With Ugandan troops in Kenya helping quell civil unrest, Uganda has now sucked itself sufficiently into Kenya 's politics.

For Museveni, bungled elections and Kibaki's desperation in the face of a deteriorating security situation have brought a window to intervene, a feat that eluded him for several years as he interfered in Rwanda , the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi , Sudan and even Angola . As with many policy decisions in his first term Kibaki might depreciate the effect of Museveni's help beyond immediate fears over the opposition ODM's mass rebellion.

Over the past week the party has petitioned Kibaki to withdraw UPDF troops from Kenya and instead engage it in constructive talks to settle the political crisis. ODM MPs claim as many as 3,000 UPDF staffers now operate in Kenya , with some engaged in the capital Nairobi .

Last week, ODM leader Raila Odinga confirmed telephone talks with Mueveni over UPDF presence in Kenya . Museveni reportedly assured him of Uganda 's neutrality in the Kenyan dispute, an assurance now undermined by Mr Mawa's arrest and other evidence of UPDF deployment on multiple points along shores of Lake Victoria, a water mass shared by the two countries and Tanzania .

So will Museveni succeed in Kenya this time? Only time will tell, and it will depend a lot on the extent to which Kibaki embraces the man. Possibly Kenya 's leaders believe Museveni's interest ends with supporting Kibaki. This is revealed in the reaction by Kenyan police that has prevaricated on the report of UPDF landings. Western Kenya provincial police commander Peter Kavila's handling of Mr Mawa's case reveals that ineptitude. On confirming the arrest, Mr Kavila casually suggested that Mr Mawa was arrested by Ugandan police (in Kenya ) who mounted a search after the officer deserted duty. Accordingly, Ugandan police handed the suspect to them and preferred charges of incitement (of all things) for which they lacked evidence. This charge was most likely thought out to connect the suspect with the tension and violence in western Kenya so the police could please their bosses in Nairobi who obviously are complicit in UPDF presence. It is little wonder Mr Mawa will not face any charges (even being in Kenya illegally) as he's due for repatriation.

A week earlier Kenya's police chief in the border Busia district Paul Kariuki claimed in response to reporters that three suspects they arrested on suspicions of being Ugandan soldiers were actually “Kenyan criminals who had posed as soldiers.” The arrest came at a time the ODM articulated grave concerns over increased militarisation of politics in Kenya in a week security forces gunned down dozens of Opposition protesters. “We express our concern over the presence of Ugandan troops and other paramilitary forces in our region. These troops have been seen landing by boat along the shores of Lake Victoria at various points from Sori to Port Victoria.

“They have made crossings at Malaba and Busia border posts or simply violated the international boundaries by constantly crossing into Kenya ,” said 10 ODM legislators on Monday. The police casually brushed off the claims even as the MPs gave registration numbers of the vehicles that brought the Ugandans and detailed their movements. “In Nyatike, Rangwe, Mbita, Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, Bondo, and Kisumu Districts the Ugandan troops have gone into villages and markets harassing people and causing mayhem. They have caused deaths in Nyatike, Mbita, Gem, Bondo and Ugenya,” the legislators said. Characteristically, the claims were not addressed beyond press denials, even by Museveni who is equally besieged by similar queries in his country.

But even as UPDF staffers are in Kenya on mutual terms, Kenya's police bosses in western areas are lost as to how many there are and their actual mandate. Questions remain concerning Mr Mawa's arrest itself. What was he doing at the time of arrest? How long was he here? What armaments did he have? Under whose command was he operating and how many more UPDF troops are actually out there, in which specific areas?

Obviously these are questions Kenya 's police bosses will not answer due to their sensitive nature and the possibility that Kenyan officials may not fully appreciate Museveni's plots. A known exporter of anarchy and a ruthless dictator in his own country, Museveni has craved for opportunity to influence Kenya 's politics since the early 1990's when he funded failed insurgencies in Western Kenya .

Then, Kenya 's policy of passive equidistance, democratic consolidation and former President Moi's kosher engagement in regional issues robbed him of the necessary fatigue in the Kenyan military, militarised politics or faultlines to exploit in his schemes. All that seems to have changed with the disputed election and the fact that Museveni is Kibaki's only ally now. Yet, with problems in Uganda escalating as Museveni becomes more dictatorial it is unlikely that Eastern Ugandans with kin in western Kenya will support his experiments. Significantly they accosted Museveni during a recent campaign tour there, demanding explanation on Uganda 's role in Kenya and their president's association with discredited Kibaki.

But with UPDF in Kenya , the post-election crisis in East Africa 's largest economy is taking a regional dimension. In Arusha, the Tanzanian headquarters of East Africa Community, secretary general Juma Mwapachu has expressed surprise at the revelations because EAC countries have a pact on defence matters that do not allow combat exchange, according to reports published in The Citizen newspaper.
But with Kibaki sitting tight against evidence of flawed victory and increased opposition pressure he will most welcome the Ugandans who will certainly kill innocent Kenyans. The international community should help reduce military build up along the Kenya/Ugandan border and tell Kibaki firmly that security operations in western Kenya should not be militarised.

The writer is a Kenyan journalist based in Nairobi . [email protected], +254-734-916745