How Long The Russian Invasion In Ukraine Will Last? Analysis Of Its Consequence

MOGADISHU, SOMALIA: Russia's unprovoked and flagrant invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 has set alight one of the bloodiest and deadliest conflict in Europe since World || A former soviet Republic, Ukraine had a deep cultural, economic and political bond with Russia, but the war could irreparably harm their relations. Some security and political experts view the Russia-Ukraine war as a manifestation of renewed geopolitical rivalry between major world powers.

Ukraine has long played a significant, yet sometimes oversighted role in the global security order. Today the country is in quagmire and on the Frontlines of a renewed great power rivalry that many analysts say will dominate international relations in the decades ahead. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 24, 2022

marked a dramatic escalation of the countries eight-year-old conflict that had ignited when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and historic turning point for European security after ten months, many defense and foreign policy analysts cast the war as a major strategic blunder by long-serving Russian President Vladamir Putin and one that has put his long-time reign in jeopardy.

Many observers view little prospect for a diplomatic resolution in the months ahead and instead acknowledge the potential for a dangerous escalation, which could include Russia's use of Nuclear weapon, the war has hastened Ukraine's push to join Western political blocs, including the European Union (EU) and Nato Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Ukraine was a cornerstone of the Soviet Union, the archrival of the United States during the cold war, behind only Russia, it was the second most-populous and powerful of the fifteen Soviet Republics, Home to much of the Union's agricultural production, defense industries and the military including the Black sea fleet and the main Nuclear power plant in Europe. Ukraine was so vital to the Union that its decision to sever ties and secede from Russia in 1991 proved to be a coup De grace for the ailing and disintegrating Superpower.

BRIEF OVERVIEW OF UKRAINE

• AREA: 603,550 square kilometers (Largest country of Europe excluding Russia)
• POPULATION: 44 million to the latest census (2021).
• RELIGION: Orthodox, Christianity, Catholicism, Protestanism
• LANGUAGES :Ukrainian (official) Russia
• FORM OF GOVERNMENT: Sem-Presidential Republic.
• GDP: $200 billion (2021)
• GDP Per capita: $4,836 (2021)

Russian diaspora approximately eight million ethnic Russians were living in Ukraine in 2021, according to the census conducted that year, mostly in the South and East Moscow claimed as an obligation to protect these people as a pretext for its gruesome and unprovoked actions to invade and annex Crimea and Donbas in 2014 in the weeks leading up to its invasion in 2022, Russia made numerous major security prerequisites of the United States and NATO, the long litany of prerequisites include that they cease expanding the alliance, seek Russian consent for certain NATO deployment and remove US Nuclear weapons from Europe but the alliance leaders turned a blind eye for the Russian irrational preconditions and Russia soon initiated its full-scale invasion to Ukraine.

The article explores the current apocalyptic war between Russia and Ukraine, the ongoing brutal and bloody confrontations between the two sides and other involving parties playing the role of proxy, the genesis of the crisis stems from the ambiguous interpretation that each side takes to produce a valid point to the cause, The Russian leader, the longest-serving autocratic whose reign remains almost two decades firmly believes that Ukraine is an integral part and parcel of Russia,while Ukrainians view themselves as an independent sovereign nation which has the right to take a decision about the destiny and fate of their country.

The article also provides substance to the background of the issue and each sides logic and rationale regarding the crisis at hand as its geographical fate decided and the shifting political patterns of the world dictates, Ukraine becomes an apple of discord in the middle and vicious cycle of political storm enforced by the power of rival political forces which shapes and sets the world politics As a holistic statement departing from the logic of a stronger hegemon, Putin the Russian leader, strongly states that Ukraine is a part is a part of Russia, as a strong and formidable actor who cares little about democracy, international relations and good governance as well as international laws and human rights and he utterly disregard the reality that Ukraine is a sovereign state to which the international law recognizes it as an independent nation-state which has the legitimate right to govern its own affairs, Putin defies such real status of Ukraine and he is still attached to what the plight was before the fall of the evil wall of Berlin in 1989, the remarkable note was that Putin was in Berlin serving as Soviet Union spy master of KGB officer at the time and in charge of the Moscow vested interest in Berlin.

To the chagrin of Putin, the Berlin wall collapsed with his eyes fixed on it his option was to flee the dangerously shameful scene of ignominious humiliation to report the gruesome news to his masters in Moscow as to how the wall crumbled and the number of German citizens took away some stones from the sliding wall as they were overjoyed and extremely elated and could not hide expressing their euphoria following the implosion and the end of the Soviet domination in the area during the past decades.

Putin's autocratic soul learned much from the older guards of the former Soviet leaders as he saw many citizens security or civilians who were inculcated deeply and indoctrinated profoundly under the hegemonic sinister reign of the revered leaders Brezhnov, Andropov, Boris Yeltsin until he himself rose to the podium and assume the reign of Moscow

Ukraine's at least the older ones can express the tyrannical and repressive rule under which they languished in the dungeons constructed by the Soviet communist with the intention of torturing, dehumanizing, demonizing and punishing dissidents in dungeons of appalling and filthy conditions, However; the crumble of Soviet Union gave a good opportunity to Ukraine and other regions under the reign of Moscow, among these regions were central Asia and the Caucasus, Ukraine's independence did come following the fall of Soviet Republic, a window opportunity that offered to Putin himself at least to rise as the top man of Russian leadership.

Not only Ukraine, but Russia was grabbing other people's from the central Asia and Caucasus in order to build greater Russia or Soviet Union, However; it was central Asia subsequently colonized by Russia and incorporated to the Soviet Union which curtailed its ties to the rest of Muslim World.

After grabbing and conquering part of Ukraine, Crimea and other key portions in 2014, Putin launched his open, blatant and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine on February, 2022, this has made clear of Putin's purpose and objectives to put Ukraine under his feet like what he did to Chechen region before, But the Ukrainians resisted vehemently and received a huge support like weapons, financial assistance and security and intelligence information from the West. This generous but fateful assistance enabled for the Ukrainians to stand up, showcase solidarity and hold on their ground in the face of the aggressively and disproportional military incursion from Moscow. As we see later on, thus assistance could be interpreted as a kind temptation.

The way Putin tries to prove that Ukraine was part of Russia and how other authors get their reason of attesting that Ukraine was always a different nation with distinctive claims, the foreign affairs magazine, dated September and October 2022, writes He (Putin) authorized special military operations because he believes that it is Russia's divine right to rule Ukraine an essay by the magazine argues that Ukraine was independent in 1918, but the independence was short-lived. The magazine added like other young Republics established after the end of Russian Empire in 1917, it was decimated by the Bolsheviks and the lands were incorporated into the Soviet Union, the journal added when the Soviet came to an end in 1991 Ukraine again seized on the trident national symbol

Economically, Ukraine is rich country following the outbreak of the war, many parts of the world which used to get cheap grains suffered alot because the war has disrupted global food supply chains and led pervasive food shortages whose domino impact was palpable even in Africa whose grain price spiralled as the result of the raging war As the Magazine elucidates Ukraine used to export grains to the other parts of the world " Ancient Athenians were nourished by grains brought from the North coast of Black sea grown in the Black earth of what is now Southern Ukraine " rich and fertile land tremendously increases the importance of the countries since food production is very essential factor to the world economy and development, national and international levels, besides its strategic asset, Ukraine is in particular rich and strategically valuable country, Ukraine plays a very crucial role in the world food supply in the past and present.

During the German invasion of France and weak countries in 1940 and during the battle of Britian later that year, German vehicles were fueled by Soviet oil and German soldiers fed by Soviet grains, almost all of which were extracted from Ukraine, one of the four regions of Soviet Union, must put up with serious invasions from the major parts, Russia, the mother Empire infact, Putin is aware that Ukraine remained in the Soviet sphere after for decades was scheduled to imbibe the Soviet Russian culture from direct education to direct cultural assimilation and ideological transformations adopting the Soviet way of life during subsequent decades.

After World war || Soviet-Ukraine was nevertheless subjected to a slow process of Russification in which its culture was degraded inspite of the fact that Putin argues acrimoniously that Russia and Ukraine originated from same ethnic root, other analysts debate that the fact of the origin of Ukraine is distinct after receiving Christianity from Byzantium, the Greek speaking Eastern Roman Empire, Kiev's rulers established a secular law.

Putin However; sternly defends his botched version of legitimizing invasion of Ukraine and the basis of his judgement on Justifications he can testify, according to his rationale and logical perception, Putin's conception of the past may be very distinct from what is universally accepted, but his narrative are a potent political weapon and they underpin his legitimacy well before the full invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin has been making an intellectual forays into obscure period of the past and manipulating key events to set up the domestic and international Justifications for his war.(foreign affairs Magazine in September/October, 2022)

It is normal that autocratic under the drive of hubris, equip themselves with every possible narrative when they want to take a drastic action against a target they view it as a threat or a place they dream or see it as there is an interest behind it, but on many occasions their calculations are futile and counterproductive just like what Putin is doing now, Saddam Hussein launched his reckless invasion on Kuwait but the ramifications were far-reaching and immensely ominous and omnicide, Putin knows well that he will not act like that of Saddam Hussein a former Iraqi leader.

The article deeply investigates the trend and dimensions that the conflict took as it is unfolding after the break out of war in Ukraine, the author launched in-depth probe into the conflict and how other parts played their role in support of the Ukrainians as second hand, but very active one which nourishes Ukraine's ability to confront and pre-empt a harsh and well-equipped superpower, the article also demystifies the role of each player and how the war expands its wings and almost potentially ushers in various parties a cause that makes the conflict an international one. The interest and the strategic issues that draws each side to the conflict as we elaborate the perspective and gives practical examples and substances in support of the argument and it's trend and potentiality.

As the world plainly witnesses the war of Ukraine stoked up a critical international development, the fateful crisis brought about multilateral contention where many actors and players and drivers are coming face to face for various reasons and Justifications after exiting the Soviet Communist Eastern bloc, Ukraine opted to follow the political model of Western Europe and USA. Putin the incumbent leader sees no reason to appreciate with the behavior of Ukraine as his neighbor which can bring in new political influence, a political system that is not the real sense applied in Russian election and in public treatment. Putin obviously was not trained to practice the real sense of Western political model even though it is not possible to argue that he is somehow stepped out the closed political circle of the Communist in addition the biggest and flagrant provocation and the mortal irritation that knocked on the door of Putin's very private sleeping chamber was that Ukraine clearly made its official statement of its determination to accede the NATO Alliance.

An international security pact which safeguards the security and the interest of NATO and for its alliances, Putin's inking about the negative circumstances around him must have far-reaching repercussions which may spur his angst towards his opponents,in the core of his thinking as a political leader of a colossal and hegemonic country, Putin bite off more than what he can chew and now going through agonizing experience that his security international pact, WARSAW, counterpart to NATO has been disintegrated following the debacle of the Soviet Union and the subsequent disintegration of WARSAW pact without argument, the crumble of WARSAW was a rare advantage to NATO.

Witnessing the dismemberment of WARSAW without another force to take its place. The humiliation of his diminished superpower, a rival to the US can give Putin the desire to alleviate the degree of becoming lower in status in terms of of military power and slashed significantly the carte blanche and the role of Russia in the world of political game so his justification to invade Ukraine must be meant to shore up the image of Russia as a strong player in the world affairs that nobody can feel indifferent to it so Russia must be reckoned with As the stay goes in terms of Putin's stance Russia has the right to respond to imminent threats from contenders and rivals. Putin took strong actions against Ukraine and not only did to dominate it but to squeeze it under his feet like Saddam Hussein to Kuwait.

Nowadays, it happened many times that Superpowers grabbed up and annexed smaller states for any reason. US invasion to Grenada Great Britian's attack of Falkland in 1980, are examples, Putin may wander of why such invasions failed to cause widespread excoriation against the invaders, while his own decision to give a lesson to Ukraine provoked well organized attack, verbal and military in his case against the Western support to Ukraine and his invasion as a response. Putin is not isolated contender, he has alignments from China, Turkey, North Korea, a Nuclear power that West views as a rogue and the most strangely Saudi Arabia, a formally known staunch ally to USA, China and Russia.

This is the nature of any war and bloody confrontation which normally brings in different players into the battle scene, if Putin fails to decimate or incorporate Ukraine into his own dreamed greater Russia; then Russian leader must restart his project of building greater Russia Tomorrow or after Tomorrow or otherwise Putin must spend sleepless nights while the noises of Ukraine and her supporters' bells are audible close to his suffering soul and project sounds to be futile.

Apocalyptic ramifications, the conflict seems to have deeper consequences compared to the starting period when the supposition was that there is a conflict which draws in two sides but by now inevitable circumstances; some of the quite dominant transform the confrontation more perilous and metastasized in dimension the author delves further a motive which paints a larger picture of the conflict which may usher in, as many analysts fear World war ||| A matter that will lead and cause serious annihilation in the world as a whole as the conflict players may resort to wielding Nuclear war scale

As the narrative and fierce argument go on, any war is costly and it is more serious for a demographically weaker contender, densely populated states like China or India can afford to sacrifice millions of soldiers in the critical progress of the war while smaller states have less opportunity and capacity to the deployment of millions of fighting forces and then needed supplies to the battlefield compared to Ukraine one of the strategies that powerful states punish their contending counterparts may be degree of sanctions which may be released as series of portions, increasing at one level or decreasing it alternatively depending on the result and the conduct of the target. It is kind of soft power without firing a bullet.

Russia used to be the recipient and the victim of embargo, but now it is turn, Russia imposed gas sanction on Germany it is now winter season and it is the period that Germany and other Western states need for gas seriously as the cold seasons entails for more need for energy at a certain point of war, Putin threateningly posted a gruesome red message probably giving an answer to the level of the intensity of the war., that he would wield his Nuclear power. This was stunningly shock because the use of Nuclear weapon means expecting the end of the world and the annihilation of civilization as well as human being. Putin is not aware that the West would respond in kind and the outcome could prove mutual disaster, turning the world into rubble and ashes that will impact to everyone.

The long-term impact the author will assess the impact it may leave in Ukraine both in the near future and long-term, the physical and psychological impact of the war mainly befalls Ukraine as the result of small country trying to challenge and confront a superpower, a contender equipped with destructive arsenal and determined to punish its opponents, for sure Ukraine will sustain irreparable losses in terms of people and infrastructure it reminds me A Somali proverb which may interpret " Those who may not unpack the loaded camel should not packed it up for you " if the war drags for many years the Western world committed to offer permanent assistance to Ukraine for sure the war is exhaustive and consuming and it fuels its young men and cash to the battleground. The impact of the war on Ukraine should prove unbearable mission for a long time.

Putin is a Nuclear wielding autocrat and willing to apply regardless of its devastating consequences but no sensible analyst and pundit may conclude that the Russian leader will use his Nuclear power easily and the west under the hegemony of the United States may refrain from using Nuclear arsenal unless necessary response to well-proved imminent threats from the adversary. The US decision to rule out direct military involvement in Ukraine out of fear and reprisal that dispatching troops to Ukraine will add fuel to the conflagration and establishing no-fly zone or Air exclusion zone could lead to Nuclear world war ||| will be seen by China and others as evidence that possessing a substantial Nuclear arsenal can deter Washington or at least get it to act with greater restraint.

The United States narrowly avoided a great-power war with the Soviet Union but ended with cold war from (1947-1991) there were many times that the world came close to witnessing and viewing superpowers wielding Nuclear weapons could pull the trigger, but nothing happened. The fact is that self-restraints by the Nuclear possessers is one option that may deter reckless actions to be ventured by using Nuclear weapons.

Such danger loomed in 1962 what is being dubbed as a Cuban missile crisis after the Soviet Union established Nuclear station in Cuba, when John F, Kennedy. The fourth assassinated US president at that time come to know the Nuclear station at his door. He sent an ultimatum to the Soviet leaders to remove the dangerous station from Cuba but his message ended in vain. In fact, superpowers fight war in distinctive approaches that weaker states could not fight, These wars include war of containment, soft war, war of sanctions, war of sophisticated level of propaganda using the state machine or national broadcaster, war of proxy and multiple forms of other war since they know what they are doing, The Western leaders hardly shed blood of their soldiers for causes out of their strategic interest and fully aware that they accountable to their subjects which may or may not give favorable vote for the election season.

Western leaders should not underestimate or downplay or belittle the possible notorious reply from former KGB spy master who was groaning with excruciating agony from the collapse of Soviet Union and the WARSAW pact, in the core of the conundrum, the sources of the problems are; the fateful location of Ukraine and her permanent neighbor, Ukraine is in need of long-term remedy or panacea.

Analysis, perspective, narratives and arguments at the very outset, what are the opportunities and obstacles that Ukraine has to undergo to accomplish its role in this struggle? What are the roles and the vision that Putin has to play in the current debacle of Ukraine? Where does Ukraine moves from here? First and foremost, Ukraine cannot move from here geographically.

To express opinion and speak candidly, However; Putin is the major protagonist who is leading the direction of the current political drama in Ukraine, he is the mastermind of the incursion into Ukraine and he must have deliberate objective far from vagueness and unambiguous, but probably he has his psychological map and blueprint to deal with Ukraine like he did to Chechnya couple of years back,Besides, suppressing the dissidents, Putin succeeded in defeating Chechnya and forming there a puppet administration serving the vested interest of the Russian ruler this could be one goal and road map for Ukraine but Ukraine also succeeded to galvanize and generate allies to help defend its cause, what truly initiates Putin to the bones is that Ukraine struggles to cement better relations with the West in seeking membership of NATO and in applying Western democracy for Putin. These two issues are anathema, in addition the West will not declare war on Russia in defense of Ukraine then Ukraine will keep on holding the fang of the aggressive elephant But how long?

As a very plain fact, Ukraine will never be awarded for Noble prize in defeating Russia this is against all logic with the backing of the West, Ukraine will fall further and slowly into the widely open mouth of the bear and to rescue it active will be hard, because of their mutual interest regardless the consistent and verbal war, superpowers, rival teams commanding technology and modernity are always friends due to their common status and equal or comparable level in leading the world stage.

The psychological level of their diplomatic relationship is equal to the position of their technological level which is understandable to them only and how they collaborate like arms race and the reduction in their private enterprise while superpowers may continue talking about their own agenda, Ukraine will lie there as a wreck, victim and will hardly recover from the deep devastation of infrastructure and human loss, time will tell when and how the current internecine and war of attrition stops. The major question is who will retreat from his position and offer concessions. Are they willing territorial compromise and who will compulsorily be pushed out of the Frontline battlefield? That is the crux of the issue.

As the first anniversary of Russian invasion to Ukraine is approaching and 5 days left, it is not anniversary anyone wants to commemorate. It also challenged Putin's delusion that he could seize control of Kyiv in matter of days. Putin failed to understand that this is the 21st century, not the 19th or 20th centuries, when small countries could be carved up by adjacent empires.

As Western leaders meeting at the Munich security conference and expected to answer the appeal of president Zelensky for immediate additional and to counter the Russian invasion and also receive long-term security assurance or guarantee.

Munich conference was designed to provide a platform for world leaders to discuss the world's conflict.

While US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken accused China of providing arms and ammunitions to Russia, Anthony Blinken had an exclusive interview with CBC Television.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Mohamed Hussein Mentalist. Author, blogger, prominent researcher, Horn of Africa Affairs analyst and senior lecturer at Mogadishu and SNU Universities.

AUTHOR.: Holds BA in English language and literature at Mogadishu University and BA in Business administration at Simad University. Master of Arts in applied linguistics at Kisii University in Nairobi as well as Master of peace and conflict studies at Uppsala University in Sweden.