Ukraine crisis: slow diplomacy and mutual threats as tensions rise

The Ukraine crisis is intensifying and diplomatic efforts to prevent an all-out conflict have been stepped up. Yesterday, a meeting in Paris on the ongoing hot war in eastern Ukraine yielded some results, but too few to diffuse tensions.

The meeting in Paris, between Russian and Ukrainian representatives, resulted in promises about a ceasefire.

A French diplomat said that more than eight hours of discussions brokered by France and Germany had been positive, while an Elysee press release confirmed that another round of talks would take place in Berlin in the second week of February.

But the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk are not impressed.

Commenting on the outcome of the talks, Ukrainian separatist Eduard Basurin told the Donetsk-based DAN News Agency that military assistance from Russia to Republic of Donbass may be necessary given the fact that the EU and US are supplying the Ukraine with weapons.

He spoke after Russia's ruling party urged the Kremlin to start arming the separatist-held region as tensions between Moscow and the West continue to rise.

Vladimir Vasilyev, head of the United Russia faction in parliament's lower house, the State Duma, is repoted by the Tass News Agency to have appealed "to the leadership of our country to provide assistance to the Lugansk and Donetsk republics in the form of supplies of military products necessary to deter aggression."

Pessimism
On the other side of the frontline, there is pessimism too. Ukrainian soldiers, talking to French new agency AFP, are sceptical that US sanctions against Moscow and Kyiv's appeal for Nato help will deter Russian strongman Vladimir Putin.

Faced with the largest deployment of Russian troops on Ukraine's borders since 2014, President Volodymyr Zelensky has requested more tangible help from the West, but many Ukrainian troops say they know they are on their own.

Meanwhile, on top of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, European capitals also fear Kyiv could be lured into a clash with the pro-Russian separatists.

According to senior European officials, the Western allies have warned Moscow that any provocation there - even if uniformed Russian troops were not directly involved - would also trigger the list of sanctions they are currently drawing up.

They have also urged Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky not to allow his forces to be drawn into more fighting by any Russian-backed actions on the tense frontline

Nord Stream 2
Diplomacy still has a long way to go. The United States on Wednesday flatly rejected Russia's key demand to bar Ukraine from Nato but offered what it called a new "diplomatic path" out of the crisis.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he would speak to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov again in the coming days.

"It sets out a serious diplomatic path forward should Russia choose it," Blinken told reporters of the US written response, which he said would remain confidential.

In the event of a Russian invasion, the immediate propspects for the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be put in jeopardy.

Nord Stream 2 is the project that was designed to enable Germany to act more independently on the energy markets in Europe. Although the natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany is officially completed, it is still not operational.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in an interview with NPR, that "if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward," adding that "it is leverage for us. It is leverage for Germany. It is leverage for the trans-Atlantic community because gas is not flowing. To be clear, it is not leverage for Vladimir Putin."

Scaling down Russian gas
There are fears too that Moscow will diminish, or even cut, the gas supply that it delivers through existing pipelines.

According to an EU study in 2019, almost three quarters of the EU's imports of natural gas came from Russia (41 percent), followed by Norway (16 percent), with smaller amounts from Algeria and Qatar.

Some countries have already tried to scale down their use of Russian gas. Overall gas use decreased in France in 2020 because of the overall economic slump caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, but according to Statista, imports from Russia decreased by 66 percent while the imports from Norway decreased by only 7,3 percent.

To counter this, American officials have held in talks with Qatar about supplying European countries with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in case a Russian invasion of Ukraine leads to shortages on the continent.

On 31 January, Qatar's emir will hold talks with US President Joe Biden to that effect.

However, according to Bloomberg, Qatar is already producing at "full capacity" and most of its cargoes are sent to Asia under long-term contracts that it can't break."

Olympic Games
Meanwhile, Beijing, scared that a possible war in Ukraine would steal the limelight from the upcoming Olympic Winter Games, has also stepped in.

Speaking to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Russia's security concerns over Ukraine should be “taken seriously”. 

“All parties should completely abandon the Cold War mentality and form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiation,” China's top diplomat said on Thursday, according to the state-controlled China Daily.

Beijing is still traumatized from the events in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia at the same they the long-awaited Beijing Olympics started.

China wants to avoid a repeat of this at all costs as the Olympics give Beijing a chance to showcase China as a well-organized country that managed to overcome Covid and is able to host large international events. 

(With wires)