Turkish government looks to regain ground by limiting ties with Israel

The Turkish government has announced restrictions on Israeli trade, along with the suspension of scheduled flights to Israel. The moves come in the aftermath of a shock defeat for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party in nationwide local elections, in which the opposition targeted trade with Israel amid growing condemnation over the war in Gaza.

Turkish Airlines announced that it will not resume flights to Israel until March next year.

At the same time, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced sanctions on Israel after aid deliveries to Gaza were blocked by Israel.

"We have submitted our request to join this aid operation with cargo planes belonging to our air force. We learned today that our request – which had been approved by Jordanian authorities – was rejected by Israel," Fidan told a press conference.

"There can be no excuse for Israel preventing our attempts to send aid from the air to our Gazan brothers who are fighting hunger. In response to this situation, we have decided to take a series of new measures against Israel," he said.

Ankara has banned the export of 54 products to Israel, including aviation fuel, steel, and cement.

Fidan said the export ban would remain in force until Israel declares a ceasefire and allows aid to be delivered unhindered.

'Hypocritical stance'

Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz condemned the Turkish sanctions, accusing Ankara of supporting Hamas, and warned of retaliation.

The trade restrictions come amidst growing criticism in Turkey of the ruling AKP party's stance of condemning Israel's war on Hamas but maintaining trade relations, which the opposition claims supports the Israeli military war effort.

The government's stance had become untenable, argues Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

There is "pressure from the public over this hypocritical stance on Israel", he says. "You have all these AKP-related businesses or AKP politicians very closely, intimately trading with Israel and stuff. They [the government] had to respond somewhat; they had to show that they were doing something."

Suspending Turkish Airlines flights was the "best, most effective, and most visible way of doing it", according to Ozel.

"I think there must be over 30 daily flights, and this was supposed to be one of the most profitable lines that Turkish Airlines operate."

Electoral meltdown

Last month, President Erdogan's AKP suffered its worst electoral defeat to date in nationwide local elections.

The Islamist Yeniden Refah Party – led by Fatih Erbakan, son of Erdogan's former political mentor Necmettin Erbakan – targeted the AKP's religious base, focusing his campaign on condemning the Turkish president for continuing to trade with Israel.

"Fatih Erbakan is once again an important figure apparently," observes Istar Gozaydin, a specialist on Turkish religion and state relations at Istanbul's Istinye University.

"I think the sort of end is near for AKP, but I guess it will be replaced by the Yeniden Refah Party," he adds.

Crucial relations

Protests in Turkey are continuing against relations with Israel. However, Israeli analysts say trade and travel are vital to maintain bilateral ties at times of diplomatic tension. 

"It's unprecedented; there's for so long no flights from Turkey to Israel and from Israel to Turkey, and that's a damage to the relationship," warns Gallia Lindenstrauss, an expert with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

"Also for business relationships, it's very important to have a regular transport route." 

"There were things that kept the relations going, even though the political relations were in crisis," she explains.

"And one element was the economic relations, and part of this was also the travel connections and the transport connections between Turkey and Israel, and the fact that people-to-people relations were enabled."

All eyes on Gaza

Even when Israeli forces in 2010 killed 10 Turkish citizens delivering aid by ship to Gaza, flights and trade between the countries were unaffected.

But analysts warn given the magnitude of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Israel's ongoing war against Hamas, this time could be different.

"This is a goddamn massacre that's going on for six months that people are watching live," says international relations expert Ozel.

"People are watching live, and this is truly unconscionable; that's why the level of protest on this particular issue of trading with Israel has increased as the devastation became even worse."

With Israeli forces poised to launch a new offensive into Gaza, protests against ongoing Turkish trade with Israel are predicted to grow – and add further pressure on Erdogan.