Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscape

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's worst electoral defeat in nationwide municipal elections has changed Turkey's political landscape. However, the Opposition's victory came at an awkward time. Turkey's Western allies were looking to strengthen ties with the Turkish President. 

Turkey's main opposition CHP (Republican People's Party) gains in nationwide local elections are a significant reversal of the party's fortunes after Erdogan's resounding reelection last May.

"After the opposition's loss in the May elections, everybody thought the opposition was in a state of despair," explains Can Selcuki, head of Istanbul polling firm Economics Research.

"But that doesn't seem to be the case, and it's a turning point for the Turkish political landscape.

"It's the first time since 1977 that CHP has managed to come out number one in the popular vote."

Threat of authoritarianism
With much of the media under his control and the judiciary targeting dissent, critics claim Erdogan's grip on power is tightening.

Addressing supporters on election night Ekrem Imamoglu, the re-elected CHP mayor for Istanbul who Erdogan personally tried to unseat, claimed his victory was a stand against the global threat of authoritarianism.

"Today is a pivotal moment not only for Istanbul, but for democracy itself. As we celebrate our victory, we send a message that will reverberate worldwide,” Imamoglu told thousands of jubilant supporters.

"Democracy's decline is now ending," continued the mayor, "Istanbul stands as a beacon of hope, a testament to the resilience of democratic values in the face of growing authoritarianism."

Muted reactions
Despite this,Turkey's Western allies' response to the CHP's resounding victory was muted.

"There were no congratulations extended, even to Turkey's democracy, let alone to the opposition itself," Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, said.

“[This] is a big contrast compared to the May elections because right after the May elections, the Western leaders, one after the other, extended their congratulations to Erdogan.

"So there is a recognition that Erdogan is here to stay, and they don't want to make him cross. And given that there is the Ukraine war on one side and the Gaza war on the other, they want a stable Turkey.”

Turkey's location, bordering the Middle East and Russia, makes Ankara a critical ally for Europe and the United States in international efforts to control migration and contain Russia.

Ahead of the March polls, Erdogan had been engaged in rapprochement with his Western allies, with Washington even inviting the Turkish President for a summit in May.

However, Erdogan could still pose a headache to his Western allies as he ramps up his nationalist rhetoric in the aftermath of his defeat.

"We are determined to show that terrorism has no place in the future of Türkiye and the region," Erdogan said Thursday. "With the recent elections, this determination has been further strengthened."

Massive military offensive
Meanwhile, Erdogan has warned that his army is poised to launch a massive military offensive into Northern Iraq and Syria against the Kurdish group PKK, including affiliates that work with American forces in fighting the Islamic State.

A crackdown on the PKK, analysts say, will play well with conservative nationalist voters. Those voters were the ones with which the opposition scored its biggest successes in Central Turkey – a region known as Anatolia - for the first time in a generation.

"CHP has never been successful in those places before. These are places that are considered to be religiously conservative, or at least conservative," Istar Gozaydin, a Turkish religion and state relations expert at Istanbul's Istinye University, said.

"And that's also valid for Central Anatolia. Central Anatolia is usually much more nationalist and much more religiously sensitive, but for the first time, they've been successful.”

It is not the first time Erdogan has sought to play the nationalist card. After the 2015 general election in which the president's AK Party lost its parliamentary majority, Erdogan launched military operations against the PKK across Turkey's predominantly Kurdish region, leveling many city centres.

Erdogan's action resulted in his AK Party taking power in a second election later that year.

Fix the economy
"I'm sure there's a temptation," said analyst Can Selcuki, "but the facts on the ground do not allow it. Erdogan needs to fix the economy."

Turkey's near 70% inflation and 50% interest rates, were widely seen as key factors in AK Party's defeat. But analyst Sezin Oney of Turkey's Politikyol news portal says a new conflict could change the political rules of the game.

"The economy is a concern, but there is a war psyche, then he [Erdogan] might be propagating," Oney added..

Some Turkish analysts say the opposition victory will be viewed privately as inconvenient by some of Turkey's Western allies coming at a time of growing cooperation with Erdogan, with the fear now that Erdogan's resounding defeat could make the Turkish leader unpredictable at a critical time in both the Middle East and Russia's war with Ukraine.