Local Fuel Prices To Increase Further

Price of fuel on the local market remained unstable within the window under review. Price of petroleum products within the second Pricing-window of January 2021 saw majority of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) increasing their figures marginally. The current national average price of fuel per litre at the pump is pegged at Gh¢4.97.

For this Pricing-window, Zen Petroleum, Benab Oil, Petrosol and Frimps Oil sold the least-priced fuel on the local market according to IES Market-Scan.

World Oil Market

For the window under assessment, Brent crude price averaged about $55.75 per barrel mark representing a 5.1o% increase from the previous window's average price of $53.06 per barrel mark.

Source: IES Construct 2021, with data from oilprice.com

The Brent crude price increase has been slower than expected due to the return to lockdowns and new restrictions in parts of Asia, particularly China. Also, the same situation in UK, France and other parts of Europe have contributed to the current trajectory of the price. The price reduction to $54.75 on 18^th January was in response to the rise in the Coronavirus infections and slow rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines across the world. The potential delay in the next round of stimulus checks in the USA has also been a factor. Lastly, the grim outlook of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on oil demand that was released within the period affected price of the International benchmark.

Even though prices seem to reduce, they are still higher than the prices that were recorded in the previous window hence the increase in the average price for the window under review.

Gasoline and Gasoil prices as monitored on Standard and Poor’s global Platts platform shows that price of the international commodities Gasoline and Gasoil experienced marginal increments. Gasoline saw an increase in price by 7.4% to close the window at $502.50 per metric tonne from an earlier $467.53 per metric tonne. Gasoil price also increased by 4.99% to close trading at $454.00 per metric tonne from $431.31 at the end of the first pricing window of January 2021.

Local Forex

Data collated by IES Economic Desk from the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market shows the Cedi continues to maintain its stability against the U.S. Dollar still trading at Gh¢5.79.

PROJECTIONS FOR JANUARY 2021 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW

Owing to factors including the 3.9% increase in price of the International Benchmark- Brent crude, the 5.10% increase in price of Gasoil, the 7.47% increase in Gasoline price and the relative stability of the local currency; the Institute for Energy Security (IES) projects price of fuel on the domestic market at the various pumps experiencing slight adjustments upwards as we enter the new month, February 2021. To increase market share however, some OMCs may decide to maintain prices from the previous window.

Signed:

Fritz Moses

Research Analyst, IES

(0241681742)