Beyond all the media razzmatazz with regard to which party is in contention for the December 2012 presidential elections, an international independent global research and advisory firm, DaMina, has delivered a gloomy verdict on the fortunes of the Progressive People's Party (PPP) and other smaller parties like the People's National Convention (PNC).
According to the research firm, the two smaller parties who are eagerly jostling to become the third political force in Ghanaian politics, would hardly secure three percent of votes collectively at the December 7 polls.
'Third-party candidates Paa Kwesi Nduom and Hassan Ayariga will not win more than a combined 3% of the national vote as Ghanaians have settled comfortably into the country's bifurcated polarized two-party political culture,' said DaMina in an election research report released on August 17, 2012 and made available to DAILY GUIDE.
DaMina is a recognized independent research and consulting firm based in the UK, USA and Ghana, with a special focus on African capital and commodities markets.
DaMina is managed by the son of Dr. Ekwow Spio-Garbrah, Sebastian Spio-Garbrah.
The research firm also has several key African personalities such as senior advisors including Dr. Ekow Spio-Garbrah, Lord Paul Boateng, Ghanaian born former Member of the British legislature, Dr. Babacar Ndiaye, former President of the African Development Bank, H.E Kabine Koroma, former Guinean Prime Minister and Bismarck Riwane, former Advisor to late Nigerian President Musa Yar' Adua.
Dr Spio-Garbrah has dissociated himself from the document, saying that he had no input in its content.
DaMina expects the same lopsided voting pattern that has traditionally characterized Ghanaian polls, where the two biggest political parties- the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) – take the chunk of the votes.
The research group projects that in the December polls, the opposition NPP will recapture power by dominating in the first round of the polls, with between 52 percent and 53 percent majority votes.
On the other hand, the ruling NDC is expected to relinquish power by trailing the NPP with total votes of about 48%.
The projected NPP win will be by a margin averaging 4.5 percent.
In its estimation, the research group said the national turnout for the December polls will be around 69 percent, a marginal reduction over the 2008 elections first round turnout of approximately 69.4 percent.
DaMina is certain about its predictions because according to its report, around September 2008, DaMina's chief Africa analyst, Sebastian Spio-Garbrah – then the lead West Africa analyst at the internationally reputed political risk consulting firm, Eurasia Group- predicted accurately that John Evans Atta Mills will win the presidency against Nana Akufo-Addo.
The 2008 elections dragged into the second round and again, during the hair-raising second round vote, Mr. Spio-Garbrah also accurately forecasted that the election would be decided by a margin of not more than 45,000 votes out of the over 8 million votes cast.
The forecast's margin of accuracy was startling because Late President John Atta Mills subsequently won the 2008 elections by 40,000 votes.
Meanwhile, DaMina estimates a bleak outcome for the ruling NDC, saying that the traditional incumbency advantages that normally help African incumbents will not favour President John Mahama, who was apparently an afterthought for the NDC after it tragically lost its substantive flagbearer, ex-President Mills on July 24, 2012.
The report said President Mahama's Northern heritage will not help him either, because even though he is a Northerner, he is from the minority Christian section of Ghana's northern divide.
'Since the 1992 return to democratic rule in Ghana, the party that has won the presidency has also held the majority in parliament.
The ruling center-right NPP, which is likely to emerge from the first round with the largest vote share, will also re-capture control of parliament,' the DaMina report said.
By: Raphael Adeniran