Analysis Of Uganda’s Constitutional Verdict On Age Limit

Nairobi-Kenya, Aug 7, 2018—On July 26, 2018 Uganda’s Constitutional Court delivered a verdict on the petition against the age limit removal and extension of parliament’s mandate from five to seven years. It approved removing the presidential age limit of 75 years but reversed the MPs term to five years. The petition was an abridged version of a number of others filed by different aggrieved citizens and opposition members of parliament. One of the ordinary petitioners was a senior private advocate called Mabirizi. He has since appealed the ruling in the Supreme Court. Also the opposition MPs have promised to appeal within the stipulated time frame.  

Was Justice Delivered?

The verdict represented a sense of reconciliation rather than justice. It did not surprise as many, even lay people had exactly predicted the same outcome. This was not due to strict adherence to the rule of law but rather to the fact that the judges, except one, were understood to fear upsetting the appointing authority, president Museveni. Before pronouncing such a verdict in previous cases, president Museveni’s handlers confirm that he would ensure to call each of the judges so as to know their individual decisions ahead of the general public. Whereas some judges would hesitate to contravene their ethical conducts, the president would caution them against passing a judgment that would potentially throw the country back to anarchy. If this happened this time again, it then made all judges, except one, to adjust their texts. (This full story can only be told in years long after Museveni is out of power). Otherwise, the co-accused party, in the case, the legislature, which had no way to influence the final decision had their interest of extending their mandate quashed. This was despite the fact that the rationale for the constitutional amendments was to extend time in office for the incumbents in both the executive and the legislature. It goes without saying that if Museveni had not expressed interest in extending his time as president, there was no necessity to amend article 102 (b) that had placed a cap on the age of a president. But in their wisdom the judges sought to appease the petitioners by creating a win-win situation so that the attorney general who represented government (both executive and legislature) retains one and loses another as so would do the petitioners. Only one judge, Justice Kenneth Kakuru dare retained his original text even if Museveni had called him prior to pronouncing the verdict. He boldly and confidently declared the entire amendment process unconstitutional, recommending it should wholly be scrapped from the constitution. He has since been hailed as a hero by members of the public keenly following the case and described as a ‘ray of hope’ in Uganda’s judicial system.  

What Next for Museveni?

The court ruling further legitimized Museveni’s personal project for life presidency. But it also dented his credentials as a respected statesman. Logically, it couldn’t be the same parliament that ‘correctly’ passed a law to favor Museveni but failed to pass a clause in its own favor! Following this logic, students of Ugandan politics have since commended the judgment of Justice Kakuru who dismissed the entire exercise. The ruling impacts on Museveni in the following ways: (i) Regional level: calls are already intensifying to relieve him of the role to mediate the Burundi peace process due to his personal agenda obsessions. (ii) International level:even though his current credibility in major Western capitals is questionable, he remains a valuable asset in as far their interests in the region are concerned. He actually invests in securing these interests beforehand so that he implements them at his pace without being asked by western leaders. This has been his secret in managing especially six American presidents in a row—including Ronald Reagan, George W Bush I, Bill Clinton, George W Bush II, Barack Obama and now Donald Trump. When he unliterary executes Washington’s foreign policies in the region ahead of planned time, he becomes an automatic ally whose own initiatives ‘coincide’ with theirs and he is considered a brilliant leader. Thus far, therefore, for as long as the court ruling carries no direct damages to foreign friends, it doesn’t in way affect Museveni’s standing at international levels. (iii) Domestic level: the entire process of passing this law exposed Museveni’s personal greed for power—by way he arm-twisted the Speaker to include the issue on the Order paper, the way he bribed MPs with ‘constituency consultation fee to do what they earn monthly pay to do’, the way he deployed the military into the plenary and the fact that the law was exclusively amended for him. Ultimately, the population has long lost the moral confidence in the concept of fair play in the entire political body. They know leadership is simply imposed on them. And that is how they perceive Museveni today.

Outlook  

It’s now public knowledge that Museveni will seek to run again in 2021 and wish to clock up to 40 years in power by 2026. He would be two years better than the 38 Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe lasted and on course to beat Libya’s late Muammar Gadhafi’s 40 years before his tragic demise early this decade.  However, unlike Mugabe and Gadhafi who had the opportunity of hiding their excesses in international sanctions, Museveni lacks such an excuse. Hence in the context of the on-going continental wave against ‘Group Dominant Ideologues’ that started 2007 in East Africa, (Kenya), then North Africa, 2011/12, (Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) and West Africa (Ivory Coast and Gambia) and then South Africa (South Africa and Zimbabwe), the remaining three years to Uganda’s next election, are certain to witness increased public resentment, hostility and all forms of calculated criminality from within and outside the country. Amid this, the population is unwilling to volunteer information to security agencies for such activities. Following the murder of high profile people, many close Museveni associates are going to take a distance from him for the sake of their lives. Before scaling up security for vulnerable MPs, Museveni must, therefore, secure foreign expertise in foiling attempts that are likely to target his life emerging from within and outside his own party that have intentions of making it hard for him to successfully go beyond 2021 as Uganda’s president.