With Election 2004 just 4 days away on Tuesday 7th December IC4 has collated information from its various sources in the field and it is now time for sober reflection after all the campaigning hype. The situation points to a second round in the Presidential battle, all in our view as follows:
Ashanti – NPP Stronghold, vigorous CPP campaign, NDC maintaining presence , CPP gaining ground.
Brong Ahafo – NPP Majority in 2000, CPP and NDC gaining against NPP majority.
Central – NPP majority in 2000, CPP and NDC gaining against the NPP numbers.
Eastern - NPP majority in 2000, CPP and NDC gains against the NPP majority
Greater Accra – NPP majority in 2000, NPP loosing majority position, in many areas battle is between NDC and CPP, in others NDC ahead of NPP.
Northern – NDC majority in 2000, NPP loosing ground, in many areas battle is between CPP & NDC. Strong CPP gains.
Upper East – NDC majority in 2000, NPP loosing ground, PNC /Grand Coalition factor, CPP gains on both major parties.
Upper West – NDC majority in 2000, NPP loosing ground, PNC/Grand Coalition factor, CPP gains on both major parties.
Volta – NDC Stronghold, little NPP gain , Strong CPP showing in many areas, in some areas battle between CPP & NDC. Positive CPP gains.
Western – NPP majority in 2000 – NDC and CPP gains against NPP numbers
Our prediction is that the Presidential elections on the 7th will be inconclusive and there will be a second round ballot 3 weeks after that , perhaps on Tuesday 28th December 2004. The situation is too volatile to predict which parties/candidates will be in that second round. On the parliamentary we are predicting 108 seats for NPP, 3 for the Grand Coalition, but of the remaining 119 seats it is difficult to predict the NDC/CPP split at this time.