Turkey's Erdogan targets support against Kurdish rebels during Iraq trip

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Iraq on Monday for the first time in 12 years. He'll be seeking support for Ankara's war against Kurdish rebels in Iraq as well as deeper economic ties. 

With Turkish forces continuing their build-up for a major offensive against the Kurdish rebel group the PKK, enlisting Iraq's support is expected to top Erdogan's agenda in Baghdad.

The PKK has for decades used Iraqi territory to wage war against the Turkish state. Erdogan's visit is part of a new approach to Baghdad in fighting the PKK.

"Turkey wants to start a comprehensive strategy that has an economic, social, and security base," said Murat Aslan, a senior security analyst for the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, an Ankara-based think tank.

"In the meantime, expanding the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces may make Iraq much safer, and Turkey may feel more secure."

Breakthrough

Last month, Ankara achieved a diplomatic breakthrough when Baghdad banned the PKK.

Erdogan will have also leverage when he visits Iraq. Iraq is suffering a severe drought and Baghdad has repeatedly called on Ankara to release more water from dams controlling rivers serving Iraq.

This week, Erdogan said he is ready to consider Baghdad's pleas.

"One of the most important agenda items of our visit is the water issue," Erdogan told reporters.

"Baghdad has made some requests regarding water and we are working on these issues.

"We will make efforts to resolve this issue with them. They already want to resolve this matter. We will take steps in this direction."

Bilateral trade

Deepening bilateral trade is also a key part of the Turkish leader's visit. Ankara seeks to increase international transit through Iraq as part of a planned new trade route between China and Europe.

"The main backbone of this upcoming presidential visit to Iraq, to Baghdad and Erbil, will be the new so-called development road," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Iraq.

"It will connect the port of Basra to the Turkish border, to Habur, or to a new border gate. Perhaps it will have a railroad, and then parallel to it, there will be a highway. And that will be an oil and gas pipeline."

Erdogan also said he may visit Erbil, the capital of semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, with whom the Turkish leader has developed close ties.

However, Iran could thwart the goal of expanding Turkish influence in Iraq.

"In Baghdad, the sun does not shine without the approval of Iran, of course," warned Selcen, who works as a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news portal.

"So how will Ankara be able to align all these stars and build a capacity to cooperate with it? It's still debatable to me, and it looks unrealistic to me."

Balance

However, some experts say Baghdad is looking to Ankara to balanceTehran's influence, especially as speculation grows over the withdrawal of United States forces from Iraq, one of the few checks to Iran.

"My hunch is that the Iraqi government wishes to free itself at least somewhat from the grip of Iranian influence and Turkey can be a balancer," said Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

 "I think Turkey would like to be a balancer here because Turkey, just like every other country in the region, is not all that happy with the kind of power that Iran has in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen."