All Things Important To The US Halftime Elections: The Great Referendum On Donald Trump

In the upcoming Midterm elections, the Democrats have the chance to wrest Donald Trump's majority in Congress. Find out here what makes the election so important and exciting. In the midterm elections in the US, the majority in parliament could tip over in favor of the Democrats in addition, the ballot on 6 November 2018 will also be an unofficial referendum on someone who is not on the ballot: Donald Trump. Because the opponents and supporters of the president will announce their vote above all their opinion of Trump and its policies.

The level of attention and funds used are as high as in recent presidential elections, because the race for the majority in the US Parliament is likely to remain scarce until the end. Now, what is at stake in the US midterm elections for Donald Trump, Republicans and Democrats. And what you need to know about it.

Why even "midterm" elections? The midterms are so called because they take place in the middle of the term of the US president. Both congressional chambers are elected: a new House of Representatives with 435 deputies, as well as a good third of the Senators, namely 35 out of 100.

What is the most important question? Can the Democrats snatch the majority of the Republicans from one of the two congressional chambers or even both?

What is at stake for Trump? Very much. Even if the Democrats only get the majority in one chamber, they can drive the government through committees of inquiry into the Russia affair or other scandals. Democratic politicians would then preside over such committees - and could confront the administration much more sharply than the republican committee chairmen did. Of course, then the legislation would be more difficult, because a law must always agree with both chambers.

Is Trump threatening to impeach? The topic would suddenly be on the agenda with a Democrat victory. These could initiate the procedure by a simple majority in the House of Representatives. To bring it to completion, however, a two-thirds majority in the Senate is needed. They probably would not exist. Because that would require many Republicans to vote against their president.

What are the chances of the Democrats? Very good in the House of Representatives. For the majority, the Democrats would have to gain 23 seats. Most observers believe that the Democrats will succeed. The anti-Trump mood helps them in large parts of the population. The majority is mainly in the approximately 60 voting districts in the US suburbs decided.

For example, women with university degrees are an important constituency and many have turned away from the Republican Party for Trump. The appointment of Brett Kavanaugh as Chief Justice, despite several allegations of sexual assault, may have contributed to this.

And in the Senate? Is it more complicated. Although the majority of Republicans are gossamer 51 to 49, most of the newly elected seats are already held by the Democrats. Although the opposition has good chances to take seats in several swing states like Arizona or Nevada Republicans.

For their part, they are threatened with the defeat of their senators in conservative states such as North Dakota or Montana. A total of seven seats are fiercely contested, four were previously in the hands of the Democrats, three in the hands of the Republicans. In the race for the majority, it will remain short until the end.

What is the political mood in the country? Trump has deepened the division of society - this will also shape the election campaign. His overall popularity is poor. Only about 40 percent appreciate him. The Democrats promise correspondingly many votes. They also rely on the indignation of Brett Kavanaugh - they are already far ahead of voters.

But Trump's followers are true to him: His popularity ratings among Republicans are stable at over 80 percent and even the conflict over Kavanaugh missed a boost in motivation.

Trump is ahead of whites and voters without a university degree. "The values remind me a lot of 2016," says research director Carroll Doherty from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

But who will actually vote? Voter turnout in midterm elections is often only 50-60 percent. One of the big questions is whether the Democrats actually bring their followers to the polls.

They focus primarily on young voters and on minorities such as blacks and Latinos - in the past they were less reliable to vote than the Republican supporters.

What role does Trump play? Election researchers see in the final stages of the election campaign a shift in topics from the local to the national level. "This year, it's not through a specific issue, but clearly through the person of Trump," says Molly O'Rourke, a professor of politics at the American University in Washington.

Sixty-six percent of Democrats said their vote was above all against the president. Because it polarizes so much, the outcome depends mainly on where the Trump opponents or supporters are better mobilized. In any case, the parliamentary election will be the unofficial referendum on Trump.

How does Trump campaign? He is fueling the trend towards personalization with all his might. Trump completes week after week several campaign events, much more than his predecessors, he occurs only in electoral districts, where his approval ratings are so good that the Republican candidates promise tailwind from him. At a rally in Mississippi he formulated it in early October: He himself is not on the ballot. "But in a sense, I'm on the note, so please, go out and vote!" Said Trump.

Francis Tawiah (Duisburg - Germany)