Turkey agrees deal to clear Black Sea of mines that threaten Ukrainian exports

Turkey is joining forces with Bulgaria and Romania to clear mines from the Black Sea, which have posed a danger to cargo ships since the start of Russia's war in Ukraine. But Ankara, the gatekeeper to the crucial waterway, insists that it won't allow any other Nato countries to send warships to assist.

In a ceremony in Istanbul earlier this month, Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania signed an agreement to clear mines that the war in Ukraine has left in the Black Sea.

"With the start of the war, the threat of floating mines in the Black Sea has arisen," said Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler, announcing that Ankara had formed a mine task force with its Bulgarian and Romanian allies.

Guler said the tripartite agreement was the fruit of months of diplomacy.

With several cargo ships already hit by mines, they are an increasing menace to one of the world's most important waterways for exporting grain and energy.

"These sea mines are floating on the water. They are not stationary, and there is no telling when or where they might strike a vessel," explains Tayfun Ozberk, a former Turkish naval officer and now a defence analyst.

"This is a serious problem in terms of navigational safety, because the merchant ships can't detect these mines as they are semi-submerged in the water," he says.

"And when they do detect them, it might be too late for them to save themselves."

Black Sea grain deal

Analysts say removing the threat of mines will significantly boost Ukraine's efforts to export grain to world markets after the collapse of a deal with Russia brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.

"Mine clearing is very supportive of maritime safety and navigation. I hope it is very beneficial for the Ukraine side in order to export their grain," says Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University and adviser to the Turkish president.

Moscow is widely seen as threatening Ukrainian exports, saying it can't guarantee the safety of ships carrying them.

But Ankara hopes increasing security for Ukrainian vessels could provide an impetus for Moscow to return to the grain deal with Ukraine.

Casin believes mine clearing could push Moscow to rethink its stance. "Perhaps Russia may come again to the table," he suggests.

Turkey as gatekeeper

Three mine-hunting ships from each of the coastal countries and one command ship will be assigned to the new task force, according to the Turkish defence ministry.

While the Turkish navy has modern mine-clearing capabilities, which Romania and Bulgaria will support, experts say the challenge facing the Nato allies is considerable.

"The locations and numbers of the sea mines are unknown, and you have to detect them first; you have to seek and destroy, and this will take time," warns naval analyst Ozberk.

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With the Black Sea a key trade route, the United Kingdom also offered Ukraine two mine-clearing ships – but Ankara denied them permission to transit its waters.

"There is some pressure by the Nato allies, such as the UK, to assist Ukraine militarily. But in accordance with the Montreux Convention, Turkey did not give permission," explains presidential adviser Casin.

Turkey has controlled access to the Black Sea since 1936 under the international convention and has been blocking entry to all warships since the start of the war in Ukraine. Casin says that stance won't change, given its importance in containing the conflict.

"If you give this permission to British or American allies, then Russia will compete, saying, 'I am part of the Montreux regime, I will send new battleships'," he argues. "And this is the beginning of warfare in the Black Sea between Nato and Russian ships."

While Turkey is a member of Nato, analysts say it is seeking to perform a balancing act between the two sides in the Ukrainian war in a bid to contain the conflict. Removing the danger of mines is seen as a small step towards that goal, albeit a vital one for world trade.