Where is Tunisia? Three proposals for a reflective debate

Two major pitfalls stand in the face of the understanding of Tunisian news: on the one hand, the emotional resulting from the absence of debates of ideas within the national political scene which is the object of an exacerbated bipolarization between supporters and opponents of President Kais Saied. On the other, the caricatural analyzes disseminated by experts and the international media who obtain information in salons and social networks, without in-depth knowledge of the field, of historical tradition and of political and symbolic issues.

In order to get out of this passionate and disembodied double logic of politics, three proposals are put forward here with a view to contributing to the reflective debate:

Towards a new ruling class

The “coup de force” of July 25, 2021 – suspension of the National Assembly and dismissal of the government –, following street demonstrations demanding the dissolution of parliament, constitutes a historic turning point. It has indeed made it possible to oust Islamism from the spheres of power, without bloodshed. Since that date, exceptional measures have led to a concentration of powers in the hands of the President of the Republic.

Perceived as arbitrary by political parties and human rights associations, these measures are however supported by the majority of public opinion. The popularity of President Kais Saied is commensurate with the bankruptcy of the political class and his doctrine of "Tawafik" - the sealed "compromise" between Ennahdha and Nida Tounes.

The highly controversial episode of the new Constitution, adopted in July 2022, will soon be completed by the legislative elections of December 17 which will take place according to a two-round uninominal voting system, with the possibility of withdrawing confidence from the elected candidates. This electoral reform hardly favors the political parties already in free fall due to the failure of representative democracy as practiced since 2011.

In anticipation of the election of a second chamber called the Council of Regions and Districts and designed lightly, without collective reflection or public debate by the project of "local and participatory democracy", it is very likely that we is moving towards the emergence of a new political class, coming more from the margins than from the centre. Hence the rejection shown by the media and the parties whose credibility is undermined by the unilateral positions taken by those in power who remain deaf to any request aimed at making it public.

The birth of a new ruling class consecrates the strengthening of power and the inexorable decline of the old political and intellectual class which failed to ensure the transition. It remains to be seen whether the new power will succeed in meeting the challenge of satisfying Tunisians' demands for "freedom, work and dignity". Doubt is more than allowed because of the nature of the power in place and the unprecedented crisis that Tunisia is going through.

power without authority

The concentration of powers in the hands of the President of the Republic is essentially theoretical, just as the new Constitution turned out, according to the Arab adage, “ink on paper”. In this, it joins the Constitutions of 1861, 1959 and 2014.

These legal texts are disconnected from reality and only change the order of things, as experience teaches, if they correspond to an internal evolution backed by an iron political will, as was the case with the Code of personal status (1956). This is not the fate of the texts and practices of the new power embodied by Kais Saied, sovereignist and not Arab nationalist, populist if not Destourian or Islamist, even Salafist, despite his strong conservatism.

Without lacking in popularity and charisma, the President seems devoid of authority, this ascendancy held by the "Chief" involving, at the level of the imagination in search of a solid force, with a view to the accomplishment of public actions. . However, the decisions taken have so far had no real effect on the economic, political and judicial world.

These fields escape the legal will of the new master of Carthage whose discourse is unstable. This is why Tunisia is neither a dictatorship nor a democracy, but a mixed and unfinished regime. Despite abuses by those in power, the nature of the regime has not changed in its fledgling governance of a society plagued by corruption.

Added to this is a culture of passivity verbally denounced by a weak and isolated opposition. Sorrowful spirits seek salvation in a burst of the national army or in a return of the "old regime", without taking into account the republican vocation of the first and the anachronism of the second.

An unprecedented crisis

The crisis that Tunisia is going through is both global and deep. Its solution is not easy because it has affected all sectors for decades. It has worsened in recent years by affecting all areas of society: the economy, politics, culture and morality.

No one escapes it, rulers and ruled, individuals, families and communities to which they belong. This is evidenced by the high cost of living, the shortage of food products, fuel and medicines, the lack of confidence in the administration and justice as well as the growing desire for regular and clandestine emigration, under the passive gaze of the rulers who have no solution for the large number of citizens threatened with precariousness.

The rise of social movements is treated solely from the angle of security and conspiracy, without regard to the objective conditions of impoverishment. It is at this level that the trade union center, the Tunisian General Labor Union, intervenes as a counter-power, to slow down a little bit the neo-liberal excesses of the government.

How far will the fragile arrangement between the social partners prevent the spirit of revolt from exploding, dragging in its wake what remains of Tunisia's achievements? No one will be able to say, even if the "Khaldounian syndrome" consisting in starting from scratch each time by brushing aside the heritage of the past comes to the fore again and challenges the genius of Tunisia, this small country which was often able to resolve the crises.

Mohamed Kerrou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

By Mohamed Kerrou, Professor of Political Science, University of Tunis El Manar