A curious case of Atta Mills

It is almost 100 days of the Mills presidency. Ordinarily this would not have been a big deal but he made it so by indicating in his party's manifesto specific targets he plans to hit within that period. His PR machinery is at work spinning the wheels of this car-seizure period to mean the engines of governance have been overhauled and all is set for the journey into a 'better Ghana.' The President's Tuesday meeting with the press (deliberately excluding leading critical newspapers like The Statesman, Searchlight, Punch, Crusading Guide and Observer) was a self-appraisal exercise staged to set the agenda for the first 100 days discourse.

Koku Anyidoho's explanation for leaving The Statesman and others out (Wednesday morning on Joy FM) is that it is his discretion to pick and choose and he was not going to extend invitation to paper's that were not prepared to offer constructive critical analysis of issues. I guess, Kwabena Agyepong would have even had an easier task using that pretext to deny The Palaver, Radio Gold and Lens access to the Castle to meet President Kufuor. But, no - Jojo, Roland and Kobby were ever there to ask 'critical' questions.

What did Mills say? That he has a four-year term and Ghanaians should not judge his government on these 100 days. That sounds fair. But, within the four-year term, he promised Ghanaians certain specific periodic deliverables - First 100 Days, First Two Years and at the End of Four Years. It is a very helpful introduction into our politics in terms of making analysis of this government's performance easier.

These benchmarks will certainly call for particular microscopic analysis, while critics are also free to look at the general trend of things. For instance, does the budget give any clear indication of the 'Better Ghana - Prosperity for All' campaign message?

When President Mills was asked to reconcile the reduction in the budget of the anti-corruption agency, CHRAJ, and his campaign promised to strengthen it, including its budget, his response was: "When I was making the promise I did not know what was in stock." He went on to say that it would have been irresponsible for him to go ahead and spend on CHRAJ when the budget deficit could not support it. So how does he reconcile that with his seemingly foolhardy move to fulfill another campaign promise by reducing between 2-5% petroleum levies, denying the state coffers about $50 million a year by that, when in effect, that reduction has been merely cosmetic in bringing 'relief' to Ghanaians?

How can Mills say today he was not aware of the state of the economy last year when in Page 16 of his Manifesto it was stated under 'Our Pledge': "Today, Ghana our dear country is in the grips of multi-faceted crises. a Crisis [sic] caused by hardships, incompetence, parochialism and systemic corruption."

In Mills' own words in the manifesto, "The facts and figures paint a very bleak picture of an economy that is not on track."

Page 16 of the 2008 NDC Manifesto reads as follows under the title First Hundred Days in Office:

(i) Establish a lean but effective and efficient government by cutting out ostentation and profligate expenditure; rationalising ministries and ministerial appointments; and promoting service, humility and integrity as canons of government.

(ii) (ii) Prepare and present to Parliament legislation on various tax and tariff measures designed to provide relief for Ghanaians.

(iii) Ensure prompt and effective implementation of existing legislation such as the Persons with Disability [PWDs] Act 2006 (Act 715) and the Whistleblowers Act 2006 (Act 720).

(iv) Review and re-constitute the membership of Commissions and Boards, solely on the basis of expertise and competence; eschewing all partisan and familial considerations.

(v) Protect the safety and security of Ghanaians by streamlining, harmonising and resourcing the agencies of state with responsibility for ensuring the security of life and the safety of property.

(vi) Take bold and comprehensive measures to deal with the appalling filth in our communities, and the related health problems of our people caused by inadequate, inappropriate and ineffective waste management systems and practices.

But, the skeptics have an easier task showing that the Mills engine isn't yet cranking. It is difficult to see a clear-cut vision and focus as to which direction the country may be moving. There's lethargy even in the Mills liturgy. People want to feel there is service after a sermon. Yet, President Mills has given himself an 80% mark for his first 100 days performance. Unusual, perhaps, for a man who, until January 7, had made his purported 'humility' an electoral asset.

The NDC administration is frustrated by what it sees as probably an orchestrated fast-depletion (if any) of goodwill. Even rising retail prices and a run for the dollar against the cedi are all blamed on NPP business sympathisers. I was on Adom FM with the Features Editor of the Palaver and a spokesperson for the NDC, who also alleged there was a conspiracy by NPP people in commerce to bring down the economy. A youth group within the party issued a similar statement this week. Surely, in a free market environment, if you indeed won over 50% of the popular vote, it should be presumed that you also have business sympathisers to counter the 'unpatriotic' acts of the others!

Perhaps, I should let the government in on a secret. An Akufo-Addo government had planned to exploit the current economic crisis facing the developed world by encouraging Ghanaians living abroad to turn their attention and savings back home for greater returns and help develop the economy.

When I disclosed that to radio listeners on Adom FM on Wednesday, April 15, 2009, Ametorquame of Palaver said "It's an afterthought." Nana, need we remind the NDC, announced in October that he had set up a committee with financial gurus like Mahamudu Bawumia, Kwame Pianim and Ken Ofori-Atta, brainstorming on how Ghana could deal with the unfolding crisis. Well, assuming it is true that what I'm saying now about the way forward is an 'afterthought', the NDC is in power now and the financial crisis of the developed world is as real and current as the queasy thought of NDC in power. So what is the Mills government doing about it? He was too busy calling on President Kufuor to call all political leaders to discuss the global crisis, in responding to Nana's October announcement.

What do we see now from the NDC? They are too busy exhibiting lack of vision and innovation in the face of the greatest economic crisis since (if not bigger than) the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In an article posted on www.myjoyonline.com, John Owusu states: "The world economy is experiencing the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression and whilst Washington, Johannesburg, London, Beijing, and other centers of power are busy brainstorming solutions to combat the global recession, it is comic hour in Ghana—with politicians fighting over state vehicles, houses and other properties. That is democracy in Ghana and Africa –it is all about who gets to enjoy the spoils of state property and money."

Touching on the motor-siezureology culture and other forms of harrassment that have characterised the First 100 Days, Mr Owusu says, "All this make it very disconcerting that President John Mills is acting like a stone deaf leader at the ugly, new political climate that is threatening Ghana's stability. He sits idly by whilst unscrupulous elements in his party are busy harassing opposition leaders, particularly, the ex-President John Kufuor and NPP leader [sic] Nana Addo. President Kufuor has endured unwarranted verbal abuse and ill-conceived property seizures from the NDC, presumably as cover for protecting state property and as retaliation for similar actions by the NPP in the last 8 years."

He urges, "President Mills ought to promote unity and project an assertive presence that he is in charge at this social and economic turning point in the nation's history."

Writing in The Statesman of Wednesday, April 15, Mustapha Hamid notes, "Regarding Jerry's assertion that Mills is 'slow and dull', the now Deputy Minister for Local Government, Elvis Afriyie Ankrah tried to rationalise Jerry's comments on Mills. According to him it is about style. Explaining, Elvis said: 'It is a question of style; Rawlings is a soldier and a revolutionary, while Mills is a professor.'"

Mustapha says he was amazed at this line of reasoning and defence. "Does professorship connote slowness, dullness and inaction? Certainly not! The late Prof. Albert Adu Boahen was known to be one of the most radical and action-oriented politicians of our time. He was not just a professor, he was a Professor Emeritus. Profession is a quality, independent of the persons who practice those professions."

Mustapha then cleverly goes on to leave the job of assessing the First 100 days of President Mills to the head of the Transition Team. After all, most of the work of this period has been done under the auspices of arguably the longest transition period under a sworn-in government in the world.

P V Obeng's memo to Prof. Mills which was leaked to the press, says in the first paragraph: “We promised to hit the ground running but many think we have hit the ground crawling. This is a phrase that is gaining currency among Ghanaians, especially our grassroots supporters. The unfortunate aspect of the situation is that it is our own people who think so and who display serious signs of regret over the situation”.

P.V Obeng continues, “Whether the criticism that things are going rather too slowly is real or not, we must as a government, make an early positive mark, deal with the issue even if it is only a perception. The good news is that all of us working for the President think that we should gather more speed and record improved results than we have done so far. We all, therefore, have to identify what has given rise to the allegation that things are moving slowly and find ways of dealing with them."

PV shows his frustration, "The first hundred days will soon be with us; an assessment will be made by friends and foes on the performance of the government and we cannot afford to be found wanting”.

Indeed, two of the biggest critics of the First 100 days of Mills have been the party's founder, J J Rawlings, and the PNDC 'prime minister', P V Obeng. In a nutshell, President Mills probably hit the ground so hard that he ended up tearing a few ligaments.

The title of this piece (The Curious Case of Atta Mills) has been taken from the 'Curious Case of Benjamin Button', a 2008 movie adapted from F Scott Fritzgerald's 1920 classic of a man born in his eighties, as an old man, and ages backwards, getting younger with time. President Mills, if observers will admit, is looking finer and younger, an extraordinary story for a President.

Normally, ascending the high chair of national leadership tends to make people age quicker - Tony Blair and Bill Clinton are typical examples. Even Barrack Obama has started aging. Thus, one thing that can be manifestly shown to have gotten better in the First 100 days is President Mills. As to signs of the Better Ghana that he promised, it can be said to be early days yet.

I still believe, one of the most profound moves that the Mills administration can still make is to put pride aside and implement what Akufo-Addo planned to do in turning the challenge of the global economic crisis into an opportunity for Ghana.

Let me sum up my previous article on this matter here, for emphasis. Getting into the last quarter of 2008, Ghana's stock market was offering the best returns on investment worldwide.

The cedi was relatively stable; this year's accumulative depreciation of 24% to the dollar is a steeper fall than what was experienced the whole of 2008. The NPP, in looking forward to a third term (which never was) was aware that interest rates were falling across the very countries from which most of our inward remittances come. Plans were already afoot to take the Homecoming Summit of 2001 to another level – this time organising, as well, road shows across those developed countries to lure more Ghanaians to come and invest their savings home. So, what has stopped the Mills government from doing the same? Is it for lack of ideas or for fear of lackadaisical patronage?

Currently, there is an opening for a country like Ghana in the West caused by the trillion dollar banking crisis. The developed world is worried the economic crisis may trigger deflation. Economies with deflation deteriorate rapidly because people refuse to spend money knowing goods will fall in value.

According to the Bank of Ghana, the money transfer inflows for the months of October, November and December of 2008 were $654.8 million, $608.0 million, and $990.2 million, respectively. Of the total transfers for 2008, $1,678.6 million (or 19.2 percent) accrued to individuals. Private inward transfers for January 2009 alone amounted to $660.5 million. Imagine if just 50% of this went directly into domestic savings?

Nearly 4 million Ghanaians are estimated to be living abroad – that's about an additional 15% of Ghana's population of approximately 23 million people. According to the Ghanaian High Commission in the UK, around 1.5 million Ghanaians live there, with 850,000 of these based in London. Compare this to the 1961 UK Census which identified 10,000 people born in Ghana then living in the UK.

Even if 50,000 of the Ghanaians in London alone are persuaded to invest £100 a month directly in financial instruments in Ghana for the next 12 months, that adds up to £60 million. Replicate that in mainland Europe (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, France etc) and the USA, and we are talking about very serious money here.

It can be a win-win situation for Ghana and Ghanaians living abroad. They don't need to plan moving back home to be attracted by such a scheme. Returns on investments here are nominally 1,500% more than what you get in a similar instrument in the developed world. Ideally, a foreign-based individual investor can always take out their money, convert it (back) into foreign currency and spend some of it there, if they like. However, with inflation at a five-year high and a fast-weakening cedi, the danger is that the typical 25.4% yield that the financial companies may be offering on a 90-day T-bill is likely to be eaten away, especially by devaluation.

Yet, if such a programme is well-organised to mobilise huge patronage, the surge in the inflow of foreign currencies to buy the cedi can help prop up the local currency, thereby curtailing import-driven inflation. A report in the Ghanaian Times of Wednesday, April 15, 2009, said that the cedi witnessed its first weekly gain to the major currencies last week, which was caused mainly by Ghanaians abroad transfering money back home to their families for the Easter. This means that if a system is established to allow Ghanaians abroad to regularly transfer money into short- to medium term financial instruments, this could hold the cedi up for their real yield to march the nominal percentage gains and for the local economy to beat back inflation. So what's the Mills government waiting for? Just take a closer look at the opportunities that the credit crunch adversity presents to us.

The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate (the minimum refinancing rate) from a current level of 1.50% to an all-time low of 1.25%. The interest rate, which is used during weekly ECB refinancing operations, is the barometer of lending costs in the 16 countries that have adopted Europe's single currency. Accordingly, German benchmark interest rate is now at 1.25%. In Sweden, which boasts one of the highest rates in the EU and continues to use the Kronor, interest rates have fallen from 3.9% last year to 2.1% this year, expected to recover slightly to 2.2% in 2010.

In the US, the Federal Reserve in January pledged to keep interest rates at "exceptionally low levels," and use "all available tools" to jolt the US out of recession. It reduced official interest rates to a range between 0% and 0.25% on 17 December and has maintained it this year. Japan made a similar cut, down to 0.1% in December.

In the UK, the Monetary Policy Committee kept rates on hold in April. The bank rate was cut in early March from 1.0% to 0.5%, with the BoE signalling it will now rely on aggressive quantitative easing with the hope of stimulating the economy. What this means is that lending and saving rates in Britain, where over a million Ghanaians live, apparently, should remain unchanged for at least several months and possibly well into 2010.

To understand better how things have changed: In September 2008, the UK bank rate was 5% per annum. The bottom line: – you cannot expect to earn more than 2% on an 18-month certificate of deposit (CDs), for example. In the US, the top-paying CDs, if you are lucky will fetch you 2.79% APY (annual percentage yield).

Soon, you'll have to commit your savings for at least 36 months in the UK or US to stand any chance of earning 3.0% on a savings deal. For example, with MetLife Bank, Bridgewater, New Jersey, which boasts the sixth best rate in the US, you have to deposit a minimum of $5,000 to earn 1.34% interest per annum!

Ghanaians in Europe, typically leave their money in an ordinary savings account, such as the old Building Societies in England. Today, they will be lucky to earn 1.5% in APY or AER (annual equivalent rate). Anglo Irish Corporation Bank, which is offering some of the best yields in Europe, is only promising a gross of 2.752% on a 3-5 year fixed rate bond.

In July 2001, the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre, with the support of Akunu Dake, Kwabena Antwi, Stephen Asamoah Boateng, and others, organised the 'Home Coming Summit' – the first ever summit of Ghanaians living abroad.

In his message at the summit, Kofi Annan, UN Secretary General at the time, said the Homecoming Summit offered an excellent opportunity for expatriate Ghanaians to join hands with compatriots at home to seek new ways to advance the country's development.

Dan Agyemang, a lawyer in California at the time representing the emigrants, saw the summit as an opportunity for a dialogue with their compatriots and government “about moving the country forward since most Ghanaians abroad have acquired vast experience, resources and contacts that could and would be brought to bear on national development efforts.”

Ken Ofori-Atta, Executive Chairman of Databank, who spoke on behalf of Ghanaians who have returned home, said the nation was in crisis and no one could re-build it except Ghanaians, both at home and abroad.

Mr Ofori-Atta, who received a standing ovation at the time, said “Ghana has a destiny with greatness - not one of squalor, poverty, illiteracy and moral decay, but one of peace, prosperity and progress.” He urged potential homecomers to be willing to endure setbacks, risks and hardships; be willing to sacrifice to pay the price for national greatness and to regain leadership in Africa.

Today, where is that 'I Believe in Ghana' inspiration? Where is that 'Can-do' spirit? Who is thinking big?

In April 2003, the Non-Resident Ghanaians Secretariat (NRGS) was launched in Accra to co-ordinate all activities and serve as the centre for all programmes and issues involving Ghanaians living abroad. President Mills has a structure to use.

Mexico, which has more than 10% of its 107 million population living in the US, is seeking to cash-in by offering higher returns for US savers. Do our current leaders have the confidence to do same?

The author is the Executive Director of Danquah Institute, a free market, centre-right think tank. Contact him on: [email protected]

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Asare "Gabby" Otchere-Darko
Executive Director
Danquah Institute