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05.11.2008 Politics

Poll shows Ghana has rejected election violence

By The Statesman

The Danquah Institute, Ghana's leading centre for research and political analysis, has conducted a nationwide survey of voters" intentions ahead of Ghana's elections in December.�

The poll has shown that an overwhelming majority expect this year's presidential and parliamentary elections to pass off peacefully.

Research teams traveled to all ten regions to achieve an accurate sample of 3,483 people. Respondents were asked for their views on what to expect when Ghana goes to the polls in a month's time.

82% of those surveyed were voters under the age of 44, of whom 41% were in the key 22-32 age range.

The proportionate representation from all ten regions and of each age group makes this the most accurate picture yet compiled of the nation's voting intentions.

For each region, the number of people surveyed was as follows:

Volta - 261
Central – 385
Eastern – 325
Ashanti – 596
Western – 385
Brong Ahafo – 408
Northern – 332
Upper East – 150
Upper West – 105
Greater Accra - 536

The sample size allowed researchers to survey across:

· Constituencies where NPP won the presidential elections in 2004
· Constituencies where NDC won the presidential elections in 2004
· Home constituencies of the 3 main presidential candidates (NPP, NDC, CPP)
· Constituencies considered troubled spots
· Constituencies where NPP won with close margins e.g Adansi Asokwa
· Constituencies with 'skirt and blouse' voting pattern e.g Adenta.

The survey's margin of error is just ±1.66% with a confidence level of 95%
A significant majority of people said they were confident that the election would be free of violence.

�Across the ten regions, 89% of people believe that the elections will be entirely peaceful – more than 3,100 of those surveyed.

By region, it was the Ashanti region (94%) whose voters were most confident of a peaceful election period, whereas respondents in the Northern region had the least confidence level of a peaceful election with 82%.

�The Western region had the second highest confidence level for a peaceful election with 92% whilst Central had 91%. Volta, Greater Accra and Brong Ahafo Regions each had 88% whilst the Upper East had a confidence level of 84%.