Review Of January 2018 First Pricing-Window: Fuel Prices To Rise Between 3 And 5%
Local Fuel Market Performance
The first Pricing-window for January 2018 recorded interesting turn of events. The National Petroleum Authority’s (NPA) assurance of no price change at the fuel pumps was contradicted by a number of Oil Marketing Companies (OMC). Total Petroleum was the first to review prices upwards, followed by Shell (Vivo Energy), Petrosol, Nasona, Fraga Oil and SEL, from Ghs 4.49 to Ghs 4.67 for both Gasoline and Gasoil, representing a change of 4%.
Total and Shell subsequently reversed their decision, currently selling at the previous price of Ghs 4.49 per litre. A large number of OMCs did not review prices at the pump. The national average prices for Gasoline and Gasoil currently is Ghs 4.47, with Benab Oil, Pacific, Lucky Oil and Zen Petroleum selling at the lowest price per litre at the pump.
World Oil Market Prices
Crude Oil prices continue to surge on the global commodity market, as Brent crude price currently averages at $67.70 per barrel, from a previous average of $63.78 per barrel, a rise of 6.12% within the last 14 days. Presently, Brent crude is selling at $69.87 per barrel; the highest price since December 2014.
Standard and Poor’s Global Platts benchmark indicates a jump in prices for both Gasoline and Gasoil. For the period under review, Gasoline prices recorded a change of 5.4%, moving from a previous average of $600.11 per metric tonne to close at $632.50 per metric tonne. Gasoil prices also recorded a 6.03% increase from a previous average of $568.72 per metric tonne.
Local Forex and Fuel Stock
The Ghana Cedi lost its value against the US Dollar. This is according to data compiled by IES Economic Desk from the foreign exchange market. The Cedi currently trades at Ghs 4.51 to a dollar, a 2.27% change from a previous rate.
In the last 14 days, total fuel imports received were 123,000 metric tonnes; 65,500 metric tonnes of Gasoline, 42,000 metric tonnes of Gasoil, 10,000 metric tonnes of ATK and 5,500 metric tonnes of LPG.
PROJECTIONS FOR JANUARY 2018 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW
With the indicators recorded; increases in Brent crude price, prices of finished products on the international oil market and the depreciation of the Ghana Cedi; the Institute for Energy Security (IES) expects these changed variables to impact negatively on fuel prices on the local market. The prices of Gasoline and Gasoil, as well as Fuel oil are likely to rise between 3 and 5%. It is clear the Price stabilization mechanism implored by the regulator may not be enough to forestall the persistent increases. It is important the government reviews the current Price Build-up and ensure the minimum strategic stocks are kept at all material times.
Principal Research Analyst