Review Of October 2017 First Pricing-Window

Local Fuel Market Performance
Local fuel market recorded interesting turn of events as the effect of deregulation came to the rescue of petroleum consumers. Fuel prices were projected to be fairly stable by the institute. Total was the first Oil Marketing Company to effect price change, reducing Gasoline by 1% and increasing Gasoil by 1.5%.

Competition forced most OMCs to reduce prices, as Goil the market leader, reduced prices of Gasoline and Gasoil by 1.1% and 0.47%. The average price of Gasoline now stands at Ghs 4.35, while Gasoil goes for Ghs 4.27. IES Market-scan shows Lucky Oil, Zen Petroleum, Frimps Oil, Glory Oil and Puma Energy are selling at the lowest price per litre at the pump.

World Oil Market Prices
Brent crude price recorded some level of stability, with the price per barrel falling marginally from a previous average of $56.92 to $56.49, a percentage change of 0.76%. OPEC’s increased production has kept prices from rising beyond its normal price range lately. Standard and Poor’s Global Platts benchmark suggests a 4.90% drop in price for Gasoline to close at $560.18 per metric tonne from$589.02 on average terms. Gasoil prices also dropped marginally by 0.37%; from a previous average of $533.89 to $531.89 per metric tonne.

Local Forex and Fuel Stock
The Ghana Cedi recorded appreciable value as compared to the US Dollar, with the local currency currently trading at Ghs4.40 to a dollar. Data by IES Economic Desk shows this is the most significant appreciation of the Cedi in 4 consecutives Pricing-windows. Between 27th September 2017 and 12th October 2017, just 48,000 metric tonnes of Gasoline and 46,000 metric tonnes were discharged at Tema Port (CMB) and Takoradi Port (Jetty) to augment the country’s fuel stock. However, few tonnages of both Gasoline and Gasoil could be spotted at anchorage.

PROJECTIONS FOR OCTOBER 2017 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW

With the following positive indicators recorded; appreciation of the Ghana Cedi, drop in prices of Gasoline and Gasoil on the international market and relatively stable crude oil prices on the global fuel market; the Institute for Energy Security (IES) forsees a downward review of prices at the pump in the second Pricing-window of October 2017. The institute trusts that oil marketers will be guided by these fundamentals in terms of their pricing with the next 15-days.

Signed: RICHMOND ROCKSON
Principal Research Analyst