Mali attacks expose cracks in Russia partnership with ruling junta

Coordinated attacks by rebels and jihadists in Mali have dealt a blow to Russia's image as a reliable security partner and exposed apparent tensions with the ruling junta, analysts said.

Mali, France's former colony, has been plunged into a major security crisis after a Tuareg-dominated rebel alliance and jihadists joined forces to carry out deadly attacks against the ruling junta and its Russian paramilitary backers at the weekend.

They captured Kidal, forcing members of Moscow-controlled Africa Corps to withdraw from the key town in the desert north, and killed Defence Minister Sadio Camara, seen as the mastermind behind the junta's pivot to Russia after a coup in 2020.

"The images of Russians being escorted out of Kidal after negotiations will surely taint the image of the group as a reliable security partner," said Nina Wilen, director of the Africa programme at the Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, a Brussels-based think tank.

"This, in combination with the death of the Defence Minister Camara, who long has been seen as the 'Mr Russia' of the junta, is likely to have a deeper impact on the relationship between Mali and Russia."

Three days after the attacks junta leader Assimi Goita met with the Russian ambassador, who proclaimed that "Russia will always be by Mali's side."

But some observers see the gesture as little more than window dressing.

Tensions on the ground

"The Russians have betrayed us," a Malian official told AFP.

"Neither Goita nor any member of the military council now trusts the Russians," said Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World (CERMAM) in Geneva.

Over the past year, consistent accounts have pointed to growing tensions on the ground between Malian soldiers and Russian fighters, each accusing the other of being the weak link against increasingly aggressive rebels.

Russia has pushed a different narrative, saying Africa Corps, which reports to the defence ministry in Moscow, managed to prevent a coup in Mali.

After the attacks Africa Corps fighters pointedly said "their original task was to train and support the Malian army, not to fight instead of it."

Russia says Africa Corps fighters managed to prevent a state coup in Mali. By Pavel Bednyakov (POOL/AFP)

Moscow said the Russians were vastly outnumbered in Kidal and left the town after fighting for more than 24 hours.

On Thursday, the Kremlin said its forces would stay in the Sahel country, rejecting a call from Tuareg rebels for Moscow to withdraw from "all of Mali."

After the coup in 2020 Mali, like neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, has cut ties with the West and moved closer to Russia, which has sent in mercenaries to help fight a jihadist insurgency.

After Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash in 2023 following a short-lived mutiny against Moscow, the Russian defence ministry has taken control of Wagner operations in several African countries including Mali.

'Failure to coordinate'

Sergei Eledinov, a retired Russian military officer and expert on African security, said while control was handed over from Wagner to the Russian defence ministry, "a new operational model had not emerged" and Africa Corps had not fully adapted to conduct combat operations in a complex environment.

He said the attacks undermined Moscow's narrative that Russian forces were in control of the situation.

Tuareg rebels in Mali have taken control of the key northern city of Kidal. By Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD (AFP/File)

"The loss of equipment or a withdrawal from positions is secondary," he said. "The central issue is that failure to anticipate, coordinate, and control has been laid bare."

But Angelina Paskhina, a Moscow-based researcher, pointed to the Russians' limited mandate in Mali.

"Given that Africa Corps is an official structure, it is subject to a number of legal restrictions," said Paskhina, who teaches geography at Moscow State University.

"In practice, they cannot show initiative and are entirely subordinate to the command in Bamako," she added.

Lou Osborn of the All Eyes on Wagner monitor struck a similar note, stressing the outfit's training and defensive roles.

"Back in the Wagner days, they really went all in with the Malians. They were even appreciated for that."

The Russians have faced accusations of deadly abuses against civilians and of focusing on resource-rich territories at the expense of more isolated regions exposed to rebel attacks.

While analysts say Russians could further withdraw from the north of Mali, few observers foresee Moscow leaving the country altogether.

Ulf Laessing, director of the Sahel programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali, said the Russians deployed only a third of the French army's manpower in the country.

"It was unrealistic to assume they can improve security in a country as vast as Mali," he said. "I think their future focus will be to protect Bamako and key installations such as the airport."