Cocoa prices to decline by over 50% globally in 2026 – World Bank

The World Bank has projected that global cocoa prices could fall by more than 50% in 2026, following a period of elevated prices in recent years.

This forecast is contained in the latest Commodity Markets Outlook, which notes that cocoa has experienced significant price increases in recent times due to supply constraints.

According to the report, cocoa prices are expected to drop from about US$7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to approximately US$3.80 per kilogram in 2026, representing a decline of about 51.3%.

The World Bank further projects a modest recovery in 2027, with prices rising slightly to around US$4.20 per kilogram.

The anticipated downturn is largely linked to expectations of improved global supply after recent shortages that pushed prices higher over the past two years.

The April 2026 edition of the report indicates a broader easing in beverage commodity prices, with the beverage price index, which includes cocoa and coffee, also expected to decline significantly in 2026.