In recent years, the Sahel region of West Africa has become a focal point for security concerns, particularly due to the rise of insurgent violence, political instability, and the failure of state institutions to address the growing threats. In response to these challenges, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali – three countries facing similar security and governance crises – have formed an alliance, officially known as the Alliance of Sahel States (also referred to as the “Liptako-Gourma Alliance”). This alliance represents a significant shift in the regional dynamics of the Sahel and reflects the growing desire of these states to manage their own security challenges without heavy reliance on external actors, such as France and the United Nations, among others. However, this “fateful alliance” is not without its controversies and challenges. This discussion examines the reasons behind the formation of the alliance, its potential impact on regional security and governance, and the broader implications for international actors and stability in West Africa.
Background of the Alliance
The Alliance of Sahel States was formed in September 2023 as a formal partnership between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These countries share similar geographic challenges, as part of the broader Sahel region, which stretches from Senegal in the west to Sudan in the east. Over the past decade, the Sahel has been plagued by various forms of insecurity, including terrorism, insurgency, and transnational crime, leading to widespread displacement, human rights abuses, and economic decline. The alliance emerged in the context of a shifting political landscape in the region. In each of these countries, military juntas have taken control following coups: Mali in 2020 and 2021, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in 2023. These regimes have distanced themselves from traditional allies, such as France and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), rejecting external influence in favor of what they view as greater sovereignty and self-determination. The alliance seeks to address shared security challenges through coordinated military operations, intelligence sharing, and policy alignment. It also represents a collective response to the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS and Western powers on these juntas for their unconstitutional seizures of power. Several dominant drivers have necessitated the formation of this fateful alliance. A few of those drivers are analyzed below.
a. Shared Security Threats
The three countries face a common enemy: violent extremist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. These groups operate across borders, particularly in the Liptako-Gourma region, which spans the tri-border area of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Despite numerous military interventions by external actors, including France’s Operation Barkhane and the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), these efforts have failed to significantly degrade the capacity of jihadist groups or stabilize the region. As a result, the countries have turned inward, seeking to coordinate their security strategies in a more autonomous manner.
The Sahel is a hotspot for violent extremist groups, including affiliates of al-Qaeda and ISIS. These groups exploit weak governance and vast, under-monitored territories, conducting attacks on civilians and military forces. The alliance, therefore, emphasizes counterterrorism through mutual defense, recognizing that a coordinated approach is essential for mitigating cross-border militant activities. Again, the three nations are led by military regimes, having undergone coups in recent years. Their suspension from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and subsequent sanctions have created additional challenges, including economic hardships and diplomatic isolation. The alliance’s formation is partly a response to these pressures, aiming to consolidate sovereignty and resist external interventions.
The alliance also seeks to safeguard critical borders in the Liptako-Gourma region, where porous frontiers have facilitated arms smuggling and rebel movements. Additionally, disputes over natural resources, such as uranium in Niger and gold in Burkina Faso, pose risks of exploitation and conflict. ECOWAS’s threats of military action following Niger’s coup and the region’s historical reliance on external actors, such as France, have also driven the alliance to adopt a strong stance on sovereignty. This includes a defense pact that ensures mutual military assistance in the event of aggression against any member state. Consequently, the alliance marks a significant shift in regional cooperation, focusing on self-reliance amidst growing threats. However, challenges such as limited resources, economic sanctions, and entrenched militant networks remain substantial hurdles to its success.
b. Rejection of External Influence
The alliance is, in many ways, a reaction to the perceived failures of international actors to adequately address the security challenges of the Sahel region. The withdrawal of French forces in 2022, following growing anti-French sentiment, marked a turning point for Mali and Burkina Faso. In Niger, the 2023 coup also led to the expulsion of French forces and a rejection of Western-led counterterrorism efforts. The alliance is thus an attempt by these countries to assert their sovereignty and develop independent security policies. It signifies a deliberate pivot towards asserting sovereignty, promoting indigenous solutions, and rejecting perceived neo-imperialist agendas. Several key indicators can help us solidify this argument.
The strongest amongst them, as already indicated above, is the expulsion of Western forces and termination of some important agreements. The members of the AES have systematically expelled Western forces, particularly French military missions, and terminated agreements such as defense cooperation treaties. For instance, Mali and Burkina Faso ousted French troops, criticizing their ineffectiveness against jihadist insurgencies and accusing them of ulterior motives. Another key indicating factor is the unapologetic opposition to ECOWAS and Western-backed sanctions against the military regimes. The new alliance vehemently opposes the policies of ECOWAS, which it perceived as heavily influenced by Western powers. This became evident in its resistance to ECOWAS sanctions following the coups in these countries, with AES presenting itself as a counterweight to Western-aligned regional mechanisms.
There is also widespread rhetoric of sovereignty and anti-neo-colonialism from leaders of member countries of the AES. Leaders of the AES frequently frame their alliance as a movement to end “neo-colonial domination.” They argue that external actors prioritize their geopolitical and economic interests, often undermining the region’s sovereignty. Diversification of international partnerships is yet another indicator. AES countries have increasingly turned to non-Western actors like Russia (notably through Wagner Group support) and China for military and economic assistance. This diversification underscores a strategic effort to reduce dependency on Western powers.
The AES is, thus, a clear rejection of external influence, symbolizing a desire for self-determination and a redefinition of sovereignty in the post-colonial era. However, while it addresses long-standing grievances against Western powers, the alliance faces challenges in maintaining stability, securing alternative reliable partnerships, and ensuring that its anti-colonial stance translates into tangible socio-economic benefits for its citizens. Its success will depend on balancing resistance to external domination with pragmatic international engagement.
c. Political Legitimacy for Military Regimes
Political legitimacy refers to the acceptance and justification of a government’s authority by its citizens and the international community. For military regimes, which often ascend to power through coups or force rather than democratic processes, securing political legitimacy is a complex and contentious challenge. The military juntas in the three countries under discussion have struggled with legitimacy, both domestically and internationally, due to their unconstitutional takeovers. By forming a regional alliance, they aim to bolster their political standing and demonstrate their capacity to govern effectively, particularly in the face of international sanctions. The alliance also serves to strengthen the solidarity between the juntas, making it harder for external actors to isolate any single member of the group.
Challenges Facing the Alliance
While the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States represents a bold attempt to tackle regional insecurity, it also faces numerous challenges. Foremost amongst them is limited military capacity. Despite their ambitions, the military capacity of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali is limited. Their armies lack the advanced training, equipment, and logistical support required to wage a sustained counterinsurgency campaign against well-entrenched jihadist groups. Previous joint operations, such as those under the G5 Sahel Joint Force (which included these three countries alongside Chad and Mauritania), have struggled to achieve meaningful success due to resource constraints and poor coordination.
The political instability within each member state also threatens the viability of the alliance. The military regimes in all three countries are fragile and face potential challenges from within their own ranks, as well as from opposition groups and civil society. If any of these regimes were to collapse or face significant internal unrest, it could undermine the alliance’s ability to coordinate its security efforts. The alliance is also isolated internationally. The suspension of military and financial aid from Western countries, as well as sanctions from ECOWAS, has further strained the resources of these countries. While they have sought alternative alliances, including engaging with Russia through the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in Mali, such partnerships are unlikely to provide long-term solutions to the deep-rooted security challenges in the region.
Implications for Regional and International Security
The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States has several broader implications for both regional and international security. If for nothing at all, the alliance has weakened multilateralism in West Africa. In other words, the alliance represents a significant challenge to the traditional multilateral frameworks that have governed regional security in West Africa. The rejection of ECOWAS sanctions and the distancing from Western powers suggest a shift away from the norms of regional cooperation that have guided peace and security efforts in the past. If the alliance proves durable, it could signal the emergence of alternative power structures in the region, potentially fragmenting regional solidarity and weakening ECOWAS’s influence.
The alliance’s growing alignment with Russia, particularly through the deployment of Wagner Group forces in Mali and Burkina Faso, signals a shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the Sahel. Russia’s increasing influence in Africa, often at the expense of traditional Western partners, could exacerbate tensions and create new security risks, especially if Russian-backed forces engage in human rights abuses or exacerbate local conflicts. This involvement could further destabilize the region and complicate international peacekeeping and counterterrorism efforts. Moreover, while the alliance aims to improve security coordination, there is a risk that the actions of the member states could lead to further destabilization. Without the support of external actors or sufficient internal capacity, the alliance may struggle to contain insurgent violence. Additionally, the repressive measures taken by the military regimes to consolidate their power could fuel popular discontent, leading to increased unrest and insurgency recruitment.
Conclusion
The Alliance of Sahel States – comprising Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali – marks a significant development in the geopolitics of West Africa. It represents an attempt by these countries to take control of their security challenges, assert their sovereignty, and resist external influence. However, the alliance faces significant challenges, including limited military capacity, political instability, and international isolation. While the alliance may offer a new model of regional cooperation, its long-term viability and success in addressing the root causes of insecurity in the Sahel remain uncertain. The broader implications of the alliance, including its impact on multilateralism, international involvement, and regional stability, will be critical factors in determining the future of security and governance in West Africa.
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