Aftermath Of NDC Presidential Primaries: Only A Magic Can Secure Them Victory In 2020 General Elections.

Yesterday, February 23, 2019, NDC delegates decided massively to elect Mr. John Dramani Mahama to lead the party into 2020 general elections. Alas, it was an obvious decision and very well expected.

Interestingly, Mr. Mahama has maintained the same support base in NDC. His votes from 2015 primaries of NDC going into 2016 general elections is almost same as the votes from the just ended primaries. In each, Mr. Mahama garnered around 95% of valid votes cast. Even though securing 95% in presidential primaries may seem overwhelming, the results from the 2016 general elections should as well serve as a lesson.

Mr. Mahama lost 2016 general elections as a sitting president seeking for a second term by 44.4% with a real difference of about 1 million votes against the then opposition candidate, now the president of the Republic, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo. Although NPP is yet to choose their presidential candidate for the 2020 general elections, it is most likely they will go for the incumbent president, Mr. Akufo-Addo as precedence has set.

NDC, led by Mr. Mahama has two major tasks to perform. One, to clear the 1 million votes deficit to close the gap it suffered during the 2016 general elections and second, secure winning votes. Such a task is a herculean one judging from the electoral history of Ghana's 4th Republic.

In addition to these two tasks, NDC has a very challenging task to deal with; the Rawlings' factor.

Mr. Jerry John Rawlings (Chairman Rawlings) is the founder of NDC and the first president of Ghana's 4th republic.

His charismatic nature and quest for social justice, probity and accountability, attracted many Ghanaians to join NDC. He still respects his motivations that led to the formation of NDC and are evident in his celebrations such as the June 4th and 31st December. Many of the old comrades in NDC, some of whom contested Mr. Mahama in the just ended presidential primaries admire and respect his principles.

Past few years, Mr. Rawlings' charisma pulled votes and motivated people to come out to vote for the NDC.

Strangely, Mr. Rawlings has been cut off from the NDC. Hardly does he add his voice to NDC's structures to criticise the NPP government and he is sometimes seen in close chats with the sitting president, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo. Some believe his decision to stay away from 2016 general elections affected NDC's fortunes. In effect, until something is done about it, the Rawlings factor will continue to hunt the fortunes of NDC in 2020 general elections.

Mr. Mahama, the flag bearer of the NDC, in the eyes of many NDC followers, is the epitome of the party now. This means winning the 2020 elections is a MUST for him.

Mr. Mahama and the NDC can only rely on the failures of the ruling NPP government to win elections 2020. I am using "only" because, in elections 2016, NDC campaigned heavily on their 8 years' achievements in government. Chief among them was infrastructure with the benefit of incumbency advantage whiles NPP campaigned heavily on their promises notably reviving the Ghanaian economy. NPP won massively.

This premise suggests that the NDC cannot rely on their 8 years of achievements in government anymore since they are presenting the same candidate.

In addition, it is worthy of note that no political party has ruled for only one term in Ghana's Fourth Republic. Again, a sitting president seeking reelection has never lost except Mr. Mahama of which NDC is presenting again. This means, there is nothing new about their "new" candidate.

The NPP government, on the other hand, has ensured they stick in fulfilling the promises they made in the 2016 campaign to Ghanaians. They must continue to deliver because that is their basic tool. Good for them, they have incumbency advantage with the "same candidate" seeking reelection as well as the party.

NPP is bent on reminding Ghanaians on the same things that made them vote against Mr. Mahama in 2016 elections which to me is an easier thing to do since the records are available to them. NDC, on the other hand, is bent on reminding Ghanaians that NPP lied to them and are unable to fulfill their promises four years in government.

The corruption tag which was a major feature in 2016 general elections will feature again in 2020 elections. NDC will ensure they make Ghanaians understand NPP government is corrupt to create an equal playing field. NPP can overturn this by presenting evidence to tell Ghanaians that truly and by the rule of law, NDC government was corrupt and with the same leader, nothing will change.

2020 general elections will be an interesting one. NPP government needs to focus on three things and the elections will be a walkover for them.

One, build some infrastructures.
Two, continue with the pro-poor policies (social interventions) such as Free SHS, expansion of school feeding etc.

Three, initiate legal actions, through the Special Prosecutor to prosecute past corrupt government's officials.

NDC needs to work a magic to erase the nearly 1 million votes gap and as well solicit for winning votes with the same candidate. Only a magic can do this!

By,
Gabriel Asante
Mobile Contact: +233 243277289
E-mail address: [email protected]
About the author:
Mr. Gabriel Asante is a Political Science graduate from Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology.

He is a political analyst with interest in Elections, Human rights, Public administration and Public policy issues.