Battle for the Soul of Ukraine, A Case of Cold War in Disguise!

The battle for the soul of Kiev is on! The people of Ukraine have successfully staged another revolution after the 2004 orange revolution that ousted the same man Viktor Yanukovic. Yanukovich has met his waterloo the second time not for electoral fraud this time but for outmanoeuvring the EU in favour of the possible membership of the Russian Controlled Custom Union.

Just after the Vilnius fiasco, Russia readily bailed Ukraine out with $15billion with other juicier packages like cheaper gas deals between Naftogaz and Gazprom. This was in a bid to display Russia's readiness to sort Ukraine out of its mess. The European deal is somewhat a deal that has a long term benefit which some economic analyst think does not solve the immediate needs of the people of Ukraine. The conditions of democratization, freer society and the release of political prisoners among other conditions by the EU also got Yanukovich to play hide and seek with the deal.

Much of Ukraine wants their government to be weaned off Russia's influence by joining the European Union. So when Yanukovich faltered and placed a moratorium on the association agreement with EU, half of the population mostly the westerners revolted and what seem to be an innocuous register of displeasure from the beginning rather degenerated and consequently led to the fall of Yanukovich for the second time.

Recent events unfolding are clear case of struggle over the soul of Kiev between Russia and the West. Though Russia agreed in principle to allow the members of the Soviet Union their independence through the Sinatra doctrine of glasnost and perestroika, their geo-political interest can however never diminish from these former allies. Russia still has that controlling stake and power over some of it former allies. In 2008 Russia flexed its muscle against Georgia when the pro-western government of Mikheil Saakashvili decided to annexe semi-autonomous states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This was at the back of similar role between the self-proclaimed Transnistria republic and Moldova in 1992. Such moves I believe are employed by Russia to display their continuous relevance and might in the caucuses.

The west took advantage of Russia's dwindling economic fortunes after the fall of the Soviet Union and made several incursions in to the Caucuses, the Balkans and the Baltic to win over some of the former soviet states in to their economic and military folds. All indications shows Putin's Russia wants to protect the rest of their turf before they are consumed by western influences. It will be bad for Russia in geo-strategic and security terms if all its former allies are westernised, having NATO influence all around them.

Ukraine has been a critical case of make or break for Russia for many reasons. Russia's interest in Ukraine is huge and this span economic, geo-political, security and historical. The customs union comprising of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan needs Ukraine to really succeed. This union typifies the Warsaw pact of 1955 in response to NATO during the cold war. Customs union is obviously an association to rival the EU in economic front and to build the Soviet Union kind of federation where Russia can exercise greater control in the Caucuses.

The struggle for geo-political and military supremacy though has been a thing of the cold war; its vestiges are largely interlaced with international politics of today. The United States' position as a world leader has been strengthened over the years after the fall of communism. The United States command most influence among its peers except for some entrenched socialist governments and Islamic republics. In other to remain part of the hegemony in world politics, Russia through its leader Vladimir Putin has been making strident effort to assert their influence over former soviet allies and friendly governments. Russia's role in international politics is critical and it's much needed to bring about some balance among the comity of nations.

Russia perceives Ukraine as a neighbour of common heritage, and with the same spiritual and historical roots thus Russia needs Ukraine as a geo-strategic partner firmly in their orbit for reasons I outlined earlier. The western Ukrainians have constantly opposed Russia's influence and Putin's attempt to meddle in their internal affairs. This has resulted in both the orange revolution and the current one that ousted the same perceived Kremlin puppet.

Putin's visit to Ukraine in July 2014 to take part in the celebrations of the 1025th anniversary of Kyivan Rus', along with Russian Patriarch Kirill I was in bid to display their historical and spiritual connection with the people of Ukraine. Approximately 17.3% of Ukrainians around the eastern and southern bloc are Russian speaking natives who pay allegiance more to Moscow than Kiev. This makes Ukraine a very polarise nation between the east and west. Eastern governments will largely be Pro-Kremlin whiles Western governments will always be Pro-West. The demography of voters between the two halves are almost equal thus, the unstable political opinions.

Russia seem to be showing goodwill towards Ukraine after strained relationship over gas deals and other economic issues, but all has to do with Russia's military and security interest in Sevastopol. This brings me to the main issue about Russian's concerns with Ukraine falling in to the hands of the west. The arm race between the United States and Russia during the cold war is much alive till date though not palpable as before. Deep mistrust and suspicions still laded some actions towards each other, though not intense like before.

The autonomous province of Crimea which houses the black sea fleet of the Soviet Union at peninsular of Sevastopol was originally under Russian control before it was transferred to Ukraine some sixty years ago. For two centuries, Crimea was part of Russia, and to many Russians it is only through a strange accident of Soviet history that Crimea is not part of Russia today. On Feb. 19, 1954, the Secretary General of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev, gifted Crimea to Ukraine as a gesture of goodwill to mark the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's merger with tsarist Russia. Not surprisingly, at the time, it did not occur to anyone that one day the Soviet Union might collapse and that Ukraine would again be an independent country.

The Crimea has been a source of tension between the two neighbours since 1991. Boris Yeltson and the then Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk agreed to divide the former soviet black sea fleet between Russia and the Ukrainian navy after the fall of the union. A lease agreement was subsequently brokered, to allow Russia to continue using the port of Sevastopol until 2042. Though the Crimea is geographically located within Ukraine, it is more of Russia in essence with over 60% its citizens Russians with Russian passports. The Crimean parliament has huge Russian influence as well. There have been separatist activities in the Crimea in recent times and Russia will more or less want to treat Crimea like South Ossetia and Abkhazia so as to obtain their loyalty and full control. The people of the east are not happy with event in Kiev and have started demonstrating separatist tendencies. The crux of the matter is that Ukraine can go to hell for all Russia cares but are ready to fight for the Crimea.

Ukraine's membership of the EU will brings them close to the possibility of becoming a member of NATO as well and that will mean Russia sharing Sevastopol with NATO which is highly impossible. That obviously will be the red line. Though I don't see the possibility of this happening anytime soon, recent event may end up degenerating and spiralling to the realms of break-up skirmishes. If Russia can't have Ukraine's membership for the customs union, then they will obviously not allow the control over the Crimea to fall to the west as well. I foresee a war over the Crimea soon. Am not a prophet of doom but everything happening in Ukraine now points to that fact. Any attempt by NATO or the U.S to intervene could be deadly for Ukraine and the world as a whole. A war is looming, UN rather do something before it's too late!

Author
Franklin Yayra Adorsu-Djentuh
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www.yayrafranklin.wordpress.com