After mainland China, why is Russia now looking to Hong Kong as part of its Asia pivot?

Russia-Hong Kong economic relations are gaining importance in 2026, although their scale remains much smaller than Russia’s relationship with mainland China, according to an analytical report published by the leading, popular and famous Russian media outlet ‘Russia’s Pivot To Asia’. Bilateral merchandise trade reached approximately US$4.3 billion in 2025, while trade during January-June 2026 reached about US$2 billion, including more than US$1.1 billion of Russian exports to Hong Kong. Hong Kong ranked around 23rd among Russia’s global trading partners, accounting for roughly 0.3% of Hong Kong’s total trade, while Russia was Hong Kong’s 19th-largest import source and 27th-largest export market. Within Central and Eastern Europe, however, Russia was Hong Kong’s largest trading and import partner.

‘Russia’s Pivot To Asia’ said that the relationship is increasingly based on Hong Kong’s role as an international financial, logistics and commercial centre rather than on the size of its domestic market. Its proximity to Shenzhen, Guangdong and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) provides Russian companies with a potential platform for reaching mainland China and wider Asian markets.

On 10 June 2026, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu invited Russian companies and investors to explore opportunities in the Northern Metropolis, a roughly 30,000-hectare development zone along the Shenzhen border. The project combines housing, industry, technology and innovation and is expected to create approximately 650,000 jobs. Areas highlighted for international investment include high technology, artificial intelligence and environmental industries. Russian Consul General Anatoly Kargapolov said Russian businesses were prepared to examine joint investment opportunities in the GBA and Northern Metropolis, ‘Russia’s Pivot To Asia’ said .

Hong Kong announced its first 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan on 16 September 2026, emphasizing international finance, maritime and trade services, innovation, technology, GBA integration, Belt and Road participation and emerging productive industries. The plan includes 196,000 public housing units and accelerated development of the Northern Metropolis. For Russian companies, finance, commodity trading, logistics, technology, environmental industries and access to the GBA are among the most relevant areas.

Gold has become the most significant commodity channel. Almost 100 tonnes of Russian gold reached Hong Kong during the first seven months of 2026, around three times the volume recorded during the same period of 2025. By early August, 2026 shipments had already exceeded the 85 tonnes imported during all of 2025, while July alone accounted for approximately 23.1 tonnes, ‘Russia’s Pivot To Asia’ said

Since 2022, the estimated cumulative value of Russian gold routed through Hong Kong has reached approximately HK$276 billion, or US$35 billion. Much of the metal subsequently moves into mainland China. Hong Kong received approximately 82.2 tonnes of Russian gold worth US$5.21 billion in 2023 and about 92 tonnes worth US$10.5 billion in 2025. This reflects the broader redirection of Russian gold exports from traditional Western destinations toward Asian markets following the disruption of established trading channels after 2022.

Hong Kong is also developing its precious-metals infrastructure. On 7 July 2026, the city began testing a centralized gold clearing and settlement system, with a full launch planned for Q1 2027, supporting its ambition to become a major international precious-metals trading centre.

Russian crude oil has created another important commercial channel. In August 2026, non-G7 tankers transported approximately 70.7% of Russia’s roughly 3.8 million barrels-per-day crude exports. Hong Kong-linked operators handled around 32 million barrels, compared with 18 million barrels in July, the highest monthly level since November 2022. Meanwhile, Greek tanker activity declined: Greek operators handled approximately 13.6 million barrels, compared with 26.4 million barrels in July, while their Black Sea loadings fell from 11.6 million to 3 million barrels, ‘Russia’s Pivot To Asia’ said

Hong Kong’s ports, shipping, insurance, commodity-finance and trading capabilities could support lawful energy commerce. However, Russian-related shipping and financial transactions face significant sanctions and compliance requirements, making transparency and regulatory compliance essential.

Food and agricultural trade represents a smaller but increasingly diversified part of the relationship. Russia-Hong Kong agricultural and food trade reached approximately US$37 million during January–August 2026, increasing 7.6% year-on-year, while Russian food exports rose 8.4% to US$36.5 million. Russian exports include meat, poultry, vegetable oils and canned crustacean products, while Hong Kong exports include plants and plant materials used in pharmaceutical and perfume production, confectionery, hop tea, canned fruit and nuts.

The Russian Export Center (REC) organized a consumer-goods business mission in Hong Kong on 15-16 September 2026. Twelve Russian companies from food, confectionery, jewelry, veterinary and agricultural sectors participated. Companies included Makfa, FrutoNyanya, Belyovskaya Pastila, SlaSti and ROZHKOVA LAB. The delegation met potential distributors and buyers and explored opportunities not only in Hong Kong but throughout the GBA, China, Vietnam, Indonesia and wider ASEAN markets.

The mission involved the Russian Export Center, Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture, the Russian Consulate General, the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, the Chinese Manufacturers’ Association of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. REC representative Evgeny Bazhov described Hong Kong as an international business hub capable of connecting Russian companies with partners and markets. Representatives including Vera Nikitina of Belyovskaya Pastila and Aleksey Moskvites of SlaSti highlighted opportunities for Russian traditional sweets and protein products in the Hong Kong market, ‘Russia’s Pivot To Asia’ said.

Russian consumer activity is also becoming more visible. On 15 April 2026, Consul General Anatoly Kargapolov attended the opening of Borsch Spot in Fo Tan and the Russian Pavilion supermarket in Kai Tak. Russian Pavilion became the city's second Russian supermarket after the Mong Kok outlet. The stores offer frozen fish and meat, chocolate, jam, snacks, health products and skincare. Companies including Slavic Feast, Borsch Spot and Siberia Taiga are involved in the emerging Russian retail network.

Tourism provides another economic connection. Russian visitor arrivals increased from approximately 60,000 in 2023 to 131,598 in 2024 and 164,592 in 2025. Approximately 110,000 Russian visitors arrived between January and May 2026, representing a 57.6% year-on-year increase and making Russia the second-largest European source market after the United Kingdom during that period. Hong Kong received more than 26 million visitors during January–June 2026, up 13% year-on-year. Russian visitors can generally stay in Hong Kong visa-free for up to 14 days under the applicable arrangements, ‘Russia’s Pivot To Asia’ said.

Despite increasing trade, the Russian corporate footprint remains limited. Hong Kong statistics recorded only 10 Russian regional headquarters, regional offices and local offices as of June 2025. Russia-linked companies associated with Hong Kong include United Company RUSAL, Aeroflot, ALROSA, Nornickel, FESCO, Galileosky, Kaspersky, X5 and VTB Capital, although classifications vary because some entities use Hong Kong or offshore corporate structures.

RUSAL remains particularly significant as the first Russian company to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in January 2010. Hong Kong investment in Russia is similarly difficult to measure because Hong Kong-incorporated or Hong Kong-listed companies are not necessarily Hong Kong-owned businesses.

Hong Kong offers a relatively attractive tax structure, with profits tax of 8.25% on the first HK$2 million of assessable profits and 16.5% thereafter. The territory generally has no VAT/GST, capital-gains tax or withholding tax on dividends. The Russia–Hong Kong Comprehensive Double Taxation Agreement, signed in 2016, provides a framework for taxation of cross-border business activities.

The principal commercial challenge is banking and compliance rather than taxation. Financial institutions may apply enhanced risk controls to Russia-related transactions, while international banks and companies must consider sanctions and secondary-sanctions exposure. A Russia–Hong Kong Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement remains under negotiation rather than being in force.

Overall, the relationship is developing from a relatively narrow commodity connection toward a broader network covering gold, energy, shipping, logistics, finance, tourism, food, consumer goods, technology and professional services. Hong Kong is not a substitute for mainland China in terms of trade volume. Its distinctive role is as an international financial and commercial centre located next to the GBA, combining finance, free-port logistics, commodity markets, professional services, legal infrastructure and access to Asian consumers.

The Northern Metropolis, the 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan, new gold-clearing infrastructure and expanding Russian business missions could further strengthen this function. At the same time, banking restrictions, sanctions compliance, regulatory requirements and the relatively small Russian corporate presence remain important constraints. The emerging model is therefore one in which Hong Kong serves as a specialized commercial bridge connecting Russian producers and investors with mainland China, the Greater Bay Area and wider Asian markets, ‘Russia’s Pivot To Asia’ said.

Stephen Rozario is a global media watcher, reaercher, and writer