Drought and the war in Ukraine changed what families in Kenya could afford to eat – research tracked food and cooking gas use

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Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had an almost immediate impact on global energy markets and the movement of food around the world. During the first year of the conflict, international crude oil and natural gas prices rose sharply. Disruptions to exports of wheat, maize, sunflower oil and fertilisers from Russia and Ukraine contributed to record global food prices.

Kenya was badly affected as the country imports about 92% of the wheat it consumes.

I am a global health researcher and was interested in tracking how the war in Ukraine affected Kenyans' ability to afford food and cooking fuel. In 2022, I worked with a team in Mukuru, an informal settlement in Nairobi, to understand how the war had affected the way families used liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for clean cooking.

Most Kenyan households still rely on biomass fuels like wood for cooking, but LPG is used by about one-third of Kenyans. LPG is much more commonly used in Kenyan cities (about 60% use) compared with rural areas (about 10% use). Since Kenya does not produce any LPG domestically, changes in global energy prices and supply disruptions can greatly increase cooking costs.

During 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, food inflation in Kenya nearly doubled from 8.9% to 15.4%. This sharp price rise was driven by rising global food and transport costs and also a multi-year drought, which reduced harvests across the region.

We analysed data from families' smart meters, which showed how often they cooked with gas and how much they spent on fuel. We also surveyed the households to understand how rising food and fuel prices changed what they ate during 2022.

We found these drastic changes in dietary and cooking behaviours:

• three-quarters of families in our study changed the foods they cooked. More than half ate less meat and fish in 2022. They consumed more ugali (maize porridge, a staple food in Kenya), vegetables and fast food.

• half of families skipped more meals

• one-third reduced the amount of gas they consumed for cooking.

Following families through the food price crisis

Mukuru is a large informal settlement, with a population of 500,000-800,000 people. The families we surveyed were customers of a company called PayGo Energy. The company allows customers to pay for gas in smaller increments rather than having to purchase a full cylinder of gas at once.

As purchasing a full gas tank can be very costly for families living below the poverty line, a pay-as-you-go option can make cooking with gas more accessible for families. These families might otherwise cook with cheaper biomass fuels, like wood, that often generate more air pollution when burned.

Because PayGo Energy monitored their customers' gas use using smart meters, we measured their use before and after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war to estimate the change in their consumption. We also surveyed the families and held focus group discussions.

We used a United Nations World Food Programme tool which measures the steps households take over the previous week to cope with food shortages. We also asked participants whether they were skipping more meals or eating different foods than usual.

Families used less gas

We found that households greatly lowered the amount they cooked with gas in 2022 compared with 2021. Families only used their gas stove for an average of eight days a month in 2022 compared with 19 days a month in 2021. Their total cooking time per month decreased from 12.8 hours to 8.3 hours.

These results matched our survey findings, in which 63% of participants reported changing the type of food they consumed, 50% shared that they skipped more meals and 30% stated that they cooked with gas less frequently in 2022 compared with 2021. One participant said:

I have shifted to rice and spaghetti because it takes less time to cook hence saves gas.

People ate less food

Another person said:

There has been a high rise in food and fuel (prices). We have had to create a balance by lowering the food and maintaining the gas usage.

Reducing their cooking time led households to spend an average of 86 Kenyan shillings (US$0.66) less per month in 2022 compared with 2021. One person told us they were decreasing their spending on cooking and skipping meals:

Our children have a feeding programme at school which is advantageous so we adults can just skip meals and wait for supper to save.

Finding policy solutions

Although our research studied the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, geopolitical conflicts will likely continue to threaten global food and energy security, as demonstrated by the war between the US and Iran.

In 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted energy markets and raised concerns about fertiliser supplies and food prices. The impacts in east Africa are likely similar to what they were in 2022.

As economic crises will continue to occur and as climate change intensifies, national and global policies can help protect against food insecurity risk. This will require direct safety nets for families, including cash transfers or payments from the government.

The government could also subsidise nutritious foods that are cheaper and faster to cook, such as canned beans, frozen vegetables and fortified foods.

Supporting small-scale farmers with better seeds, access to credit and water-saving farming methods can also help communities produce more food and become more resilient to drought and climate change. Taken together, making these investments can help build a more adaptable food system.

Matthew Shupler receives funding from The National Institutes of Health in the US and National Institute for Health and Care Research in the UK.

By Matthew Shupler, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Environmental Public Health, Harvard University