2024 General Elections: The Danger Of Bawumia

INTRODUCTION
Over the past few days, I have been reflecting on Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the Vice President of the Republic of Ghana and the New Patriotic Party's (NPP) presidential candidate for the 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections. With a brief historical analysis of his entry into the Ghanaian political scene and his current position, I have developed a strong conviction that he is the formidable contender in the upcoming presidential elections. He is the danger man in the upcoming elections.

Dr. Bawumia represents a different political trajectory, and his influence resonates with a wide range of demographics, including the youth, the educated, those seeking education for their children, the middle and upper class, and the working population.

Regardless of personal opinions, he brings to the table a unique political strategy, discourse, engagement, and divinity. I will take my time to highlight each of these salient points to support my assertion.

POLITICAL STRATEGY
From the moment Dr. Bawumia was selected as the running mate of Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo in 2008 and subsequently elected as the Vice President of the Republic, he had a clear vision for his role in Ghanaian politics. His decision to represent the NPP as the star witness in the landmark presidential electoral petition in 2012 at the Supreme Court of Ghana was no coincidence. He knew exactly what he wanted to achieve.

Dr. Bawumia cemented his relevance within the NPP, in Ghana, and internationally. His continuous symposiums from 2012 to 2016, aimed at exposing the weaknesses and incompetence of the NDC and His Excellency John Dramani Mahama's administration, were part of a well-thought-out strategy.

Upon becoming Vice President in 2017, Dr. Bawumia had a clear vision of his political trajectory. His continuous engagement with various groups across the country, his occasional 31st Night visits to churches, and his close association with grassroots party members (a notable picture with him in one of those engagements in 2018) were all strategic moves that achieved their intended purposes.

As the time for the presidential primaries approached, Dr. Bawumia strategically visited the homes of influential NPP members to introduce his ambition. Many of these influential figures, who initially belonged to different factions or were undecided, found themselves compelled to support him. This strategy proved effective.

During the nearly eight years of the NPP administration under Nana Akufo-Addo, it was evident that Dr. Bawumia had reservations about certain key decisions made by the president, the cabinet, or the administration as a whole. Nevertheless, he conducted himself with composure, avoiding innuendos, unlike how Martin Amidu of the NDC behaved under President Mills's administration. These strategic moves make Dr. Bawumia a formidable candidate in the upcoming December elections.

POLITICAL DISCOURSE
There's no need to elaborate extensively on this theme, as almost everyone in Ghana is aware that Dr. Bawumia has transformed the nature of political discourse. Previously dominated by insults, Ghanaian political discourse has shifted to issue-based policy proposals and debates with Dr. Bawumia's influence. The National Democratic Congress (NDC), the main opposition party, is still struggling to adapt to this paradigm shift. Unfortunately for the NDC, the majority of Ghanaians seem to prefer policy-based campaigns and debates over insult-laden ones.

Recent events in political discourse support this assertion. When some known NDC communicators verbally attacked President Kufour for endorsing Dr. Bawumia, public dissent forced the NDC to issue an apology letter distancing itself from these remarks. This would not have happened previously.

Social media commentaries suggest that many who initially decided not to vote in the upcoming election due to their resentment of the NPP government have reconsidered and decided to vote for the NPP, influenced by the insult-driven nature of the NDC campaign. Unlike Bawumia, who rarely resorts to insults in his political discourse, Ghanaians seem to appreciate his approach. This is a significant advantage that makes him a formidable candidate.

POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the sitting Vice President and the flagbearer of the ruling party, is running his campaign as if he were an opposition leader. With about two weeks to the elections, he is the only presidential candidate to have visited more than 90% of all constituencies in Ghana. The potency of his campaign lies in his constituency-focused strategy. In each constituency, he first meets with opinion leaders, then organizes a mini rally to interact with constituents and explain his vision and message. Following this, he engages in "populist appeal" by boarding trotros, visiting lorry stations, and markets to greet individuals. This form of retail campaigning is a powerful tool that no political strategist can undermine.

POLITICAL DIVINITY
Dr. Bawumia, a Muslim, aspires to lead a country with over 70% Christian population. Ordinarily, one might think this is unlikely given global trends and the current international geopolitical landscape. However, Bawumia has managed to neutralize this potential weakness to the extent that anyone who raises this issue during the campaign faces significant criticism. Those who wish to discuss it are often deterred by the public backlash they might encounter. Consequently, any opposition based on this issue is unlikely to significantly impact his success. The majority of Ghanaians have chosen to prioritize competence and track record over religious affiliation. This shift benefits Dr. Bawumia, especially since the NDC is also presenting a candidate who has previously served as vice president and president. Considering the North-South divide that sometimes influences electoral outcomes in Ghana, it's noteworthy that both major contenders in the upcoming election are from the North. This coincidence effectively neutralizes the potential impact of this variable on the election results.

In addition to his political acumen, Dr. Bawumia's candidacy is bolstered by the support of former President Agyekum Kufuor and President Akufo-Addo. These influential figures, regardless of personal opinions about them, hold significant sway in Ghana due to their past leadership roles. Their endorsements are advantageous for Dr. Bawumia, and any political liabilities he might inherit from them are negligible compared to their positive influence. Furthermore, Bawumia's incumbency advantage remains a significant asset. His main opponent, Mr. Mahama, lacks this advantage, as his campaign is primarily driven by himself and a few younger supporters whose influence does not compare to that of former presidents.

Moreover, it is quite surprising how the NPP has re-organized themselves just one year after their primaries to come together and execute an effective campaign strategy. While Dr. Bawumia and his team, including those who contested him during the primaries, are campaigning in one region, his running mate, Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh, is in another region with a team that also includes members who contested Dr. Bawumia in the primaries. Additionally, his wife, Samira Bawumia, is actively engaging in other areas, encouraging people to vote for her husband.

Finally, unlike in 2020, it appears that many of the unpopular parliamentary candidates of the NPP have been replaced through the parliamentary primaries with candidates who are more likely to win votes. This positions Dr. Bawumia and his party advantageously to secure a majority in parliament, similar to their success in the 2016 elections. These strategic moves are aspects of campaign execution that the NDC lacks.

The ability of the NPP to regroup and unify their campaign efforts is a key factor that makes Dr. Bawumia a formidable candidate in the upcoming elections.

CONCLUSION
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP possesses all the political advantages to win the upcoming presidential elections. His main competitor, His Excellency John Dramani Mahama, and his party, the NDC, underestimated Dr. Bawumia's potential to contest for the presidency a year ago. However, with two weeks to the elections, it seems they have realized that Bawumia is not an easy match, and their underestimation was a mistake. Recent opinion polls conducted by Prof. Smart Sarpong of Kumasi Technical University indeed show Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leading with 49.1% of the vote. The polls also predict that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is likely to secure a majority in Parliament, with at least 148 seats. Regardless, Dr. Bawumia has run a potent campaign and possesses all the political advantages to become the 6th President of the Republic of Ghana from January 7, 2025.

By
Dr. Gabriel Asante
Political and Public Policy Analyst
[email protected]