Peacefulness in Sub – Saharan Africa

The Sub-Saharan Africa refers to all the 48 countries located in Africa, south of the Sahara desert. They include Angola, Burundi, Congo, Ethiopia, Botswana, Lesotho, Mauritius, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, Zambia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mali, Benin Republic, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Gambia, Cote d’Ivoire, Cape Verde, Niger, Togo, Sierra Leone, Mauritania, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, Djibouti, Uganda, Tanzania etc.

The state of peace and security in the Sub-Saharan region of Africa is worrisome. The fragile nature of security and peace in Africa is a factor of corruption, poor governance and criminality. This region has been noted to be the hot-bed of insecurity and instability in the world. According to the 2015 Global Peace Index, six Sub-Saharan countries namely Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Congo Democratic Republic and Nigeria were among the ten least world peaceful nations out of 162 nations so surveyed, only to be surpassed by Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

Similarly, in 2023, five countries in the sub region were again among the least world peaceful nations namely Central African Republic, Mali, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. In 2024, the number grew to seven with Nigeria and Burkina Faso added. This number is likely to increase where Niger and Ethiopia are getting closer to the red mark. It is worthy to note that, on the 2024 GPI, out of the 44 countries in the sub region reviewed, only two countries were ranked ‘high’ in terms of peacefulness while the remaining 42 countries found themselves ranked as either ‘medium’, ‘low’ or ‘very low’.

On the 2024 GPI, Sub-Saharan Africa recorded a fall in peacefulness, with the average score in the region deteriorating by 0.89 per cent over the past year. Sub-Saharan Africa is the second least peaceful region behind the Middle East and North Africa, with three of the ten least peaceful countries in the world found in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa faces several security crises, most notably the increase in political unrest and terrorism in the Central Sahel region. Burkina Faso has the highest terrorism impact of any country in the world, and five of the ten countries with the highest terrorism impact are in sub-Saharan Africa.

There were deteriorations in peacefulness in sub-Saharan Africa across all three GPI domains, with the largest occurring on the Ongoing Conflict domain. Conflicts in the region continued to spill across national borders, reflected by a deterioration on the external conflicts fought indicator. In the past five years 36 of the 44 countries in the region have had some level of involvement in at least one external conflict.

Mauritius is the most peaceful country in sub-Saharan Africa for the 17th consecutive year. It has the highest levels of peace in the region across all three GPI domains. Mauritius recorded a small improvement in peacefulness over the past year, owing to improvements on the Safety and Security domain. The violent demonstrations and homicide rate indicators both recorded significant improvements. Mauritius is also the only country in sub-Saharan Africa that has not been involved in any internal or external conflicts over the past five years.

South Sudan is the least peaceful country in the region, despite a small improvement in peacefulness over the past year. The number of deaths from internal conflict fell by 73 per cent, from 723 deaths in 2022 to 199 in 2023. However, although the country recorded improvements on both the Militarization and Ongoing Conflict domains, the security situation remains fraught. The ongoing crisis in Sudan has also significantly impacted South Sudan, complicating the return of refugees and potentially impacting South Sudan’s economy by disrupting oil exports.

Ethiopia recorded the largest improvement in peacefulness in the region, because of the Tigray ceasefire agreement that resulted in a large fall in the number of deaths from internal conflict. There were just under conflict 2,300 deaths in 2023, down from over 100,000 in 2022, when Ethiopia was the country with the highest number of conflict deaths. However, despite the fall in the intensity of conflict, the security situation in the country remains fragile. Although a ceasefire agreement was signed in late 2022, there were reports of mass killings by multiple parties across several different regions in 2023. A state of emergency was declared in the Amhara region with the federal government intensifying its military presence and employing curfews, mass detentions, and militarized patrols.

Gabon recorded the largest deterioration in peacefulness in sub-Saharan Africa, and the third largest deterioration of any country. Both the Ongoing Conflict and Militarization domains recorded significant deteriorations. The fall in peacefulness was driven by increasing internal unrest which culminated in a military coup in August 2023 that overturned the results of the presidential election. The coup ended the 56-year rule of the Bongo family. The international community, including the African Union and the United Nations condemned the coup and called for a peaceful resolution and a return to constitutional governance.

Corruption, bad governance and criminality can be the factorial matrix that engenders lack of peace and insecurity in the Sub-Saharan Africa. Payments of bribes to corrupt government bureaucrats add more cost and uncertainty to business activities. This in turn breeds overnight millionaires and billionaires among government officials thereby attracting criminalities like kidnapping and armed robberies in the Sub- Saharan Africa. All these aggregate to leadership failure which may have ignited examples such as Boko – Haram insurgency that had claimed thousands of lives with massive destruction of infrastructures in Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria.

Source: IEP, 2024 GPI.