What next for the Netherlands after far-right Wilders storms elections?

Geert Wilders faces an uphill struggle luring partners to form a coalition government with his far-right party following their "monster victory" in Dutch elections that has shaken both the Netherlands and Europe. 

Wilders' PVV (Freedom Party) won 37 seats in the 150 seat parliament – more than doubling the result from the 2017 election and far outstripping opponents.

The fragmented Dutch political landscape was dominated by traditional parties – the conservative VVD, the Labour Party (PvdA), the centrist Christian CDA and the center-left D66 – for decades. 

But in 2002 that composition was undermined by a massive breakthrough of the hard-right, anti immigrant populist Pim Fortuyn. 

• Anti-Islam populist Wilders wins Dutch elections in a shock for Europe

After Fortuyn's murder by an animal rights activist, anti-immigrant voters found a new guru in the PVV. Wilders' party managed to play a role in 2010 as non-voting party in the CDA-led government of Jan-Peter Balkenende, which collapsed in 2012.

Since then, Wilders' popularity has steadily grown, but he was confined to the opposition bench, shunned by the mainstream parties which categorically refused to cooperate with him.

As of today, they may not have that choice anymore. 

RFI spoke with Bernard Steunenberg, Professor Public Administration with Leiden University about the election result, and its likely impact on European politics.

RFI: How do you explain this massive win for Wilders?

Bernard Steunenberg: The campaign mostly pointed at problems but not at solutions. Solutions for the housing crisis or environmental problems were not really discussed. 

This campaign became about political identity. Geert Wilders is very successful in this respect. That was the driving force of his party over the past 15 years. He is very capable of playing this card towards the electorate. At the same time, he doesn't make clear what kind of solutions will be adopted in the near future about some of the important issues on the table.

RFI: Wilders does not have a complete majority by far. He needs coalition partners. What is going to happen now?

Bernard Steunenberg: Governments typically have to be formed through a coalition in Dutch politics, and Wilders will most likely be the person who has to start negotiating with other parties.

Some are a bit reluctant, like the VVD, the Liberal Party, formerly led by [Dutch Prime Minister] Mark Rutte. Other parties that were reluctant before will now start negotiating with Wilders, including the new party of Pieter Omtzigt [a startup created by a disgruntled former member of the Christian CDA party.]

What comes out is not clear. This may take quite some time ... because parties may find it difficult to water down some of their promises, including, of course, the party of Wilders.

RFI: If Wilders fails to form a government, there may be an attempt by Frans Timmermans, who heads the Green Labour Coalition. In this case Wilders may be left out altogether. Would it be bad to exclude the PVV from a coalition?

Bernard Steunenberg: Having these coalition negotiations doesn't help the country. Within a year, we would like to have a new government. Otherwise, some of the problems may become overwhelming. From a democratic point of view, Wilders should start, but if he doesn't succeed and Timmermans takes over, then there is a possibility they could form a coalition without him. 

RFI: If this were France, this would only be the first round and there would be a second round. And Wilders Freedom Party PVV would face the Green-Labour of [former EC Vice-President] Frans Timmermans. In that case, what would be the likely outcome?

Bernard Steunenberg: Compared to the last elections a couple of years ago, the number of voters on the right, centre and left hasn't changed much. In the 2021 elections, right-wing parties had about 62 seats in parliament, now it's 65. The left part, including the Green-Labour alliance had about 35 votes. And they do have 35 votes now. And in the centre, there's about 40 votes collected by a number of parties. So if we go along this scenario, most of them might consider going left, and in that case it would be a very tight vote. 

RFI: What does a Wilders victory mean for immigrants in the Netherlands?

Bernard Steunenberg: Wilders said in his speech just after the first results that he would keep to the constitution as well as existing law. But the most important elements will be the result of negotiations with others. Most likely he will want to see a limit on the number of people coming to the Netherlands as refugees and asylum seekers. 

RFI: French President Emmanuel Macron has been under fire as well from the extreme right and opinion polls show a growing popularity for the far-right's Marine Le Pen. What effect will his victory have on French voters also with regard to the upcoming EU elections?

Bernard Steunenberg: It means that the right side of the political spectrum in Europe is also moving a bit in that direction, and members of the European Parliament may voice more of their discontent about some of the measures taken by others. This means that some elections will be much tougher, and the participants need to be very clear about what their platform is and how to connect to voters in their constituencies.

It may also mean the next French election will be very tight.

- This interview has been lightly edited for clarity.