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07.07.2019 Special Report

UN Report: In The Year 2100, About 4,3 Billion People Could Live In Africa

The faster population growth of Africa due to its increasing birth rate per head
JUL 7, 2019 SPECIAL REPORT
The faster population growth of Africa due to its increasing birth rate per head

The world population is getting older. By 2050, one in six people (1:6 >65) will be over the age of 65. In Europe, one in four (1:4 >65). But for Africa, a different development is predicted.

Africa...by 2050 and 2100
By the year 2050, the population in Africa will almost double from nearly 1.3 billion today to around 2.5 billion. By 2100, 4.3 billion people could live on the continent. This is shown by the latest United Nations (UN) world population projections. Thus, in no other continent, the population is growing as fast as in Africa, where fertility is still high and is slowly declining compared to the other continents. Women in Africa receive an average of 4.4 children, which is significantly more than the average in the rest of the world: it is 2.5 children. Overall, according to UN figures, the world population will increase from about 7.7 billion today to 9.7 billion in 2050 and to 10.9 billion in 2100. So it grows annually by 82 million people, as many as living in Germany.

Global fertility rate
The global fertility rate dropped from 3.2 children per woman in 1990 to 2.5 children per woman in 2019. Projections continue to reduce it to 2.2 in 2050. Nearly half of the world's population already lives in one country where fertility is less than 2.1 children per woman. Fertility is higher in Sub-Saharan Africa (4.6), Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand (3.4), Northern Africa and Western Asia (2.9) and Central and South Asia (2.4). The UN estimates that the fertility rate in Africa will also drop to 2.1 children per woman by 2100. "However, given the very young age structure, African populations will continue to grow for some time, despite the reduction in fertility rates," the report says. The number of potential mothers in Africa will double by 2050.

Statistical forecasting
In the coming year, nearly two billion people will live in the world who are less than 15 years old, around a quarter of them in sub-Saharan Africa. "In 47 of the least developed countries, the number of young people between the ages of 15 and 24 will increase from today's 207 million to 336 million in 2050." Overall, however, the world is aging: today, around one in ten people is over the age of 65 it will be every sixth in 2050. In Europe, the region with the oldest population, even one in four. Over the same period, according to UN figures, the number of people over the age of 80 will triple from 143 million to 426 million.

Francis Tawiah (Duisburg - Germany)

Francis Tawiah
Francis Tawiah, © 2019

This author has authored 587 publications on Modern Ghana. Author column: FrancisTawiah

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