The US Midterm Elections And Its Global Impact

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The United States of America went to the polls on November 6, 2018 to elect members of the house of representatives, senators and governors. The election produced a divided outcome, with the Democrats taking control of the house of representatives, whilst the Republicans not only maintaining their majority in the senate, but also increasing same.

Prior to this midterm election, many pundits had concluded that, it was going to be a verdict on the performance by the Trump administration. It was therefore not surprising that, it became one of the hottest midterm elections in recent US history. Though this outcome will have a monumental impact on the domestic political dynamics and governance process in the US, its international ramifications are of equal significance and deserve some attention. As a result of the potential impact of this election on some global issues, the poll was closely monitored by many around the world.

One such global issue, for which the elections was critical, is the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran by the US, following the latter’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Proponents of the deal, the government and the people of Iran were hopeful of an outcome that will see the Democrats take control of the senate, an outcome that would have posed an obstacle to the effective implementation of the sanctions and giving hope to the survival of the dying deal. The Republican victory at the senate is therefore a deadly blow to the Iran nuclear deal and the people of Iran. The many others who had hoped for a blue wave at the senate to turn the tides around and save this international deal from collapse will have to wait for much longer.

In addition, the current trade war between China and the US is another global issue that will be impacted by the outcome of the election. A blue wave at the senate, would have been crucial in ending the deadlock that is affecting many businesses and consumers in both China and the US. A senate Democratic majority could have leverage on their power to get the Trump administration to find a solution to the current trade war. The outcome of the elections certainly was not what the Chinese may have hoped for. It signals the continuation and potential escalation of the trade war, which in the end will have severe consequences for both countries and consumers in general.

The current devastating war in Yemen led by Saudi and Emirati coalition forces is one of the reasons many international observers would have prefer a US senate controlled by the Democrats. The war which has been described by the UN as the world’s worse humanitarian crisis, has killed thousands of civilians, with the Saudi Coalition air strikes reportedly responsible for two-thirds of the deaths. As a result, many have called on the US to stop providing support to the Coalition including a pause on arms sales to Saudi Arabia, which the Trump administration is not willing to do. A Democrat senate majority would have been a game changer, they would have been able to block some of the arm sales which many believe are use to kill civilians. The outcome of the election, therefore, means, there may not be a significant shift in America’s role in the war in Yemen, and the civilian casualties are likely to continue.

Other global issues that rested on the outcome of the midterm elections includes; President Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces(INF) Treaty with Russia, the travel ban from some Muslim countries and the Climate Accord. The divided outcome of the elections will significantly affect the hopes of many around the world, who were looking forward to some changes in the US position on these issues that have the potential to affect many around the world and the US relations with other countries.

Author: Ibrahim Suhuyini

Blogger at ibrahimsuhuyini.blogspot.com and an International realtions commentator