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27.05.2012 Feature Article

Besigye’s FDC is going through similar problems as Chelsea FC

Besigyes FDC is going through similar problems as Chelsea FC
27.05.2012 LISTEN

FDC is divided because Besigye has lost interest in the whole 'multiparty' project thing. Neither Nandala nor Muntu will be able to keep the party together in this transitional period unless Besigye comes on board. FDC are going through the same problems Chelsea will be going through next season. Even the guy who won both the Champions League and FA cup has not been given the manager's job on fullt ime. They need a new manager in FDC but I think most of the candidates are weak. How they sort it out, it's hard to tell.

It seems Besigye has 'unofficially' given up on elections because he believed he should have won at least the 2011 elections considering the fact that Museveni's numbers have been going down since 1996. As you may know, Mr. Museveni got a 75% in 1996, 69% in 2001 and 59% in 2006, but how he got the % of almost a 70% in 2011 elections, it's anybody's guess work.

Presidents or leaders normally get a honey moon period and pollsters usually ignore that period when measuring one's popularity. So, it is possible president Museveni was popular between 1986 and 1996, which explains the 75% of 1996, but it is impossible in any realistic terms for him to get the % he got in 2011 elections. So, why would anybody waste any more money and energy on presidential elections when the man in power is still controlling the election itself?

I don't know what Besigye's plans are because, like I keep telling forumists, I have never physically met the man. I have never got any kind of communication (private or public) from him about anything. I doubt that he even knows that I exist. Oh, sorry, that is not true. He knows that I exist because he is a silent member of Ugandans At Heart (UAH. So, I would be happy if he shares his thoughts with us here on UAH one time.

I think what the current political parties should do is to work towards increasing their numbers in parliament in the post Museveni era because it will not be easy to dislodge the 'rigging' mechanism that has kept M7 in power – as soon he leaves the presidency(if he leaves the presidency). In Ghana in 2000, Kenya in 2002 and Malawi in 2004, ruling parties did not have large parliamentary majorities to enable incumbent leaders to amend the constitution and remove presidential term limits. So, big numbers in parliament are important. But first, they need to sort out that electoral commission as the Kenyans have sorted out theirs under Kibaki. Uganda does not have an EC that can provide free and fair presidential elections.

It's good that church leaders have joined the few brave NRM MPs to call for the restoration of term limits. The truth is that even in NRM, they are tired of president Museveni but they don't know how to get rid of him. They are afraid of him and his rolling eyes.

Why do you think NRM supporters, like Brother Ahmed Katerega(Newvision), are calling for the restoration of term limits but can never openly tell you that the target is 'Nzee' Museveni. Everybody is afraid of the guy, for some reason. Moreover, as in Ghana in 2000 and 2008 and in Kenya in 2002, where the president has respected term limits, the incumbent regime has been voted out of power and been unable to retain the presidency. So, our hope is in the restoration of term limits and God's plans but not elections.

Anybody who says that FDC is not having problems; he or she is in denial. Even NRM is nothing without Museveni, and he knows it. The reason why I think if he leaves now, and probably, by any chance, Besigye stands in 2016 against someone like Mbabazi, FDC have got a chance to get into power.

Museveni controls the NRM parliamentary committee, the EC and the UPDF. It is almost impossible for anyone to win an election when you stand against him. Museveni is NRM , and he has intentionally kept an unpopular Sec General at the helm of things to avoid NRM becoming stronger than himself. As one commentator said in 2009:'You cannot claim to be a strong party when the party chairman is stronger than the party structures and operates them in his interests'. This means that Museveni's succession will not be determined by the NRM organs but by himself. He is the one to choose a successor not NRM organs, and he knows it. NRM as a party are weak, and I think they know it.

UPC have got a good president but they cannot see it. That's why some are fighting him. They are even in a better situation that Obote is already dead.

DP have also got a good president though i doubted his abilities at the beginning, but he has learned on the job. And i think they should keep Mao as their transitional president.

CP have got a 'resident' leader not a 'president'. I no longer even know what they stand for. I know they stood for federalism in 1980 elections but that has been hijacked by Beti Kamya's Federal Alliance. So, I really don't know what they are about at all. I grew up as a kid respecting Abu Mayanja and Mayanja Nkanji such that I started separating the two characters as an adult.

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Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba

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