NDC's parliamentary seats projected to drop to 154 as NPP rises to 100 in 2028 forecast – Global InfoAnalytics

The National Democratic Congress (NDC) is projected to win 154 parliamentary seats in the 2028 general elections, against 100 for the New Patriotic Party (NPP), according to a new forecast by Global InfoAnalytics.

The model leaves 20 constituencies undisclosed and identifies two others as toss-ups, bringing the total number of seats in the projection to 276.

The forecast gives the NDC 55.8 per cent of the projected seats and the NPP 36.2 per cent, with the remaining 7.9 per cent falling under the undisclosed and toss-up categories.

Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwa, announced the projections in a social media post on Tuesday, November 3, describing them as the firm's first MRP model analysis of the 2028 parliamentary seats.

“In our first MRP Model analysis of the 2028 parliamentary seats, NDC has 154, NPP, 100, 2 Toss-up and 20 seats were undisclosed,” he wrote.

The projections are based on a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, a statistical approach used to estimate voting preferences across different geographical areas by combining survey data with population information.

Meanwhile, the forecast comes against the backdrop of a major shift in Ghana's parliamentary balance following the 2024 general elections.

The NDC secured a commanding majority of 185 NDC MPs in a 276 House, leaving the NPP with 87 MPs and four independent members.

The new forecast therefore suggests a possible reduction of 31 seats for the NDC and an increase of 13 for the NPP compared with their current parliamentary numbers.