Fear and hope in Somalia as key army backer Uganda pulls out

Uganda's plan to withdraw thousands of troops from Somalia has sparked mixed reactions among Somalis, with some hoping it will strengthen the national army while others fear Islamist militants will exploit the security vacuum.

The Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab has been fighting the Somali government for two decades and continues to control large swathes of central Somalia despite a major international military campaign against it.

Uganda was the first country to contribute troops to the African Union's military mission in Somalia in March 2007. It currently has between 6,500 and 8,500 soldiers deployed in key roles, including securing the capital, Mogadishu.

All Ugandan troops are expected to leave by the end of next year, dealing a major blow to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which could lose between a third and half of its personnel.

AUSSOM was already under threat after Washington pulled funding to a crucial United Nations logistics mission, citing frustration over Somalia's lack of progress against the militants, and persistent political turmoil.

Ibrahim Hassan, a businessman in Barawe, a strategic coastal town 200 kilometres (124 miles) south of Mogadishu, told AFP he feared "Al-Shabaab could launch major attacks".

Ugandan forces were stationed at a base on the outskirts of Barawe, where Hassan said he had already seen large numbers of Somali soldiers arriving to replace them.

"Al-Shabaab is undoubtedly preparing to exploit any security vacuum left by departing foreign troops," said Abdikadar Ahmed, a university student in Mogadishu.

AUSSOM commander Lieutenant General Sam Kavuma also acknowledged the risk.

"(Al-Shabaab) have done it before, I feel they can still do it. Any fighter in any conflict will always exploit any opportunity that presents itself," Kavuma said in an interview with local media.

Just last week, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed hundreds of elite Somali soldiers in an ambush in the Lower Shabelle region -- potentially one of its deadliest attacks in years, although the government has not released a death toll.

The government has also yet to comment on Uganda's planned troop withdrawal.

"There is no cause for concern, as the Somali National Army is taking over the positions they are vacating," a senior Somali officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP.

'Ultimate prize'

As Somali troops are moving in to replace the Ugandans, questions remain over their ability to fill the gap.

"Somali forces still lack adequate training, equipment and pay, which may undermine morale," Ahmed said.

Somalia also does not have fighter jets, although Turkey has occasionally provided air support using its F-16s.

Analysts warn the withdrawal poses a "real risk" of the federal government losing key areas to Al-Shabaab, including parts of Mogadishu, although not in the immediate future.

"The ultimate prize is the capital and the government," security analyst Samira Gaid said.

Omar Mahmood, of the International Crisis Group, said Al-Shabaab was "focused on the rest of the country" and would save Mogadishu "for last".

Some Somalis remain confident their army can withstand the insurgency, pointing to Turkey's heavy investment in its military.

"The Somali army has strengthened over the past few years with support from Turkey. I believe it can assume responsibility for security and defend against Al-Shabaab," said Abdullahi Moalim, a Mogadishu resident.

Others, like Shafici Mohamed, see Uganda's troop withdrawal as a blessing in disguise.

"Somalia would be better off if all foreign troops withdrew," he said. "The conflict would eventually end with one side prevailing and taking control."