World Bank maintains Ghana’s 2026 growth forecast at 4.8%

The World Bank has maintained its projection for Ghana’s economy to grow by 4.8% in 2026, citing resilient economic activity, easing inflation and progress in the country’s debt restructuring programme.

According to the Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update: Building AI-Readiness report, Ghana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to increase marginally to 4.9% in 2027 before reaching 5.0% in 2028.

The latest forecast follows growth of 5.8% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025, although the projected 4.8% expansion for 2026 represents a moderation from the previous two years.

The World Bank, however, said the underlying recovery remains strong, supported by robust domestic demand and the continued expansion of digital services.

Ghana recorded 6.0% year-on-year economic growth in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 6.6% over the corresponding period in 2025.

The Bank attributed the second-quarter performance largely to domestic demand, which increased by 11.2%, while investment surged by 53.0%.

The services sector remained the biggest contributor to the expansion, growing by 8.0% and accounting for almost three-fifths of total GDP growth.

Information and communications technology was among the strongest-performing areas, recording growth of 30.9% and underscoring the increasing contribution of digital services to economic activity.

Industrial growth also improved during the period, rising to 4.3% from 2.4% a year earlier. The improvement was supported by higher oil and gas production.

Agriculture, however, recorded a slowdown, with growth falling to 3.9% from 7.1%, largely as a result of a sharp contraction in fishing activity.

Meanwhile, private sector activity showed signs of improvement towards the end of the quarter. Ghana’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.8 in August from 49.2 in July.

A reading above 50 signals an expansion in private sector activity, with the improvement linked to stronger customer demand and increased hiring.

Inflation projected to fall to 8%

The World Bank also highlighted the substantial decline in inflation, following the exchange rate volatility experienced in previous years.

Consumer price inflation is projected to fall to 8.0% in 2026, from 22.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025. The Bank expects inflation to remain around 8.0% through 2028.

Despite the decline, the Bank of Ghana has maintained a cautious monetary policy stance, particularly because of potential risks associated with global energy prices.

The World Bank said the central bank maintained its policy rate at 14% after determining that the balance of risks to inflation and economic growth required a cautious approach.

Debt restructuring boosts investor confidence

Ghana’s debt restructuring programme also featured prominently in the World Bank’s assessment of the economy, with the Bank describing the progress as a key milestone in the recovery.

Public debt declined from 70.1% of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8% at the end of 2025, before increasing moderately to an estimated 52.6% in 2026.

The country’s overall fiscal deficit is meanwhile projected to narrow to 2.2% of GDP in 2026.

The World Bank said Ghana’s reclassification to moderate risk for both its external and overall debt positions during the 2026 Article IV consultation represented a major improvement in the country’s debt outlook.

It further described Ghana as the first country since the 2022 debt distress wave to move out of the high-risk debt category altogether.

The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, coupled with continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund programme, has also contributed to improved investor confidence.

Ghana’s sovereign spreads fell significantly from approximately 2,828 basis points in 2023 to 239 basis points by August 2026.

The World Bank attributed the decline to the completion of the debt restructuring, sustained fiscal adjustment under the IMF programme and the subsequent reclassification of Ghana’s debt sustainability risk to moderate.

AI seen as tool for poverty reduction

Looking beyond Ghana’s immediate economic performance, the World Bank’s report also examined the potential role of artificial intelligence in promoting more inclusive growth.

The Bank said Ghana could achieve greater poverty reduction if the gains from AI were extended to poorer households and underserved communities instead of being concentrated among people who already have the capacity to benefit from the technology.

According to simulations cited in the report, broadly distributed AI gains could lift three times as many people out of poverty compared with a situation where the benefits are concentrated among households that are already able to use AI.

The World Bank therefore identified digital connectivity, access to technology and wider access to AI-driven economic opportunities as important factors that could shape Ghana’s long-term development prospects.