Ugandan Opposition Expects A Sham Military Coup

Ugandan opposition groups allege the possibility of a staged military transition in which Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba would assume power from his father, Gen. Yoweri Museveni. In response, various political forces are using multiple platforms, including social media, to mobilize citizens to resist what they describe as an unconstitutional transfer of power.

While the veracity of these allegations remains disputed, several observable developments cited by the opposition suggest movement toward the scenario they describe. The opposition bases its concerns on the following factors:

1. Planned Political Transition Before the End of Term

Given that the incumbent President Museveni, now 81, is expected to retire at the end of this term at 86, the opposition argues he intends to ensure a successor who will not pursue legal action against him and who will sustain his ideological legacy in the region. They contend that his son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is positioned as the most suitable candidate.

2. Institutional Mechanisms to Facilitate Succession

The opposition compares succession models such as that in Chad. They argue that Gen. Muhoozi is being positioned to function as a de facto crown prince, with increasing influence over key national policy decisions.

3. Intra-NRM Party Dissent on the Transition Process

There is reported disagreement within the ruling NRM party regarding the transition. Key figures opposed to Gen. Muhoozi’s ascendancy, according to the opposition, include veteran generals such as Kahinda Otafiire and David Sejusa (alias Tinyefuza), former ISO Director Kayanja, and Mr. Rwabwoogo, the husband of the President’s second daughter.

Alleged Elements of the Coup Plan as Cited by the Opposition

1. Trigger Event to Justify Military Intervention

The opposition alleges plans to orchestrate the death of either Dr. Kizza Besigye or former Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago while in detention. They claim this would spark mass protests, prompting military intervention and the declaration of a state of emergency, during which Gen. Muhoozi would assume interim authority indefinitely. They further allege that regional militia groups, including M23 and forces deployed in Somalia and CAR, could be mobilized to support the Special Forces Command (SFC) should elements of the regular UPDF resist.

2. PLU Central Executive Committee Engagements

The expanded CEC of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), projected by the opposition to form the core of a future cabinet, reportedly held its inaugural meeting at the PLU headquarters in Naguru, Kampala. Notable attendees cited include Deputy Speaker of Parliament Rt. Hon. Thomas Tayebwa, Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs Hon. Norbert Mao, Minister of Local Government Hon. Balaam Barugahara, and the husband of the President’s eldest daughter, among others.

3. Anti-Corruption Rallies

These rallies are, according to the opposition, intended to position the PLU as the leading force against corruption in Uganda. They are also being used to mobilize public support and provide platforms for PLU officials to build national visibility.

4. Diplomatic Visit to Rwanda

Gen. Muhoozi’s recent unscheduled visit to Rwandan President Paul Kagame, without official explanation, is interpreted by the opposition as part of contingency planning. They allege it was intended to secure a potential regional intervention force in the event the transition faces resistance, with the Rwandan military prepared to stabilize the situation and secure the UPDF command structure under Gen. Muhoozi.

5. Unveiling of a Statue of Benjamin Netanyahu

The opposition argues that this gesture, despite concerns about its implications for Uganda’s sovereignty and the lack of recognition of fallen Ugandan soldiers, was aimed at securing Western support.