Early Warning Must Be Matched by Early Action to Prevent Atrocity Crimes in Africa – Nyarko

William Nyarko, Executive Director of the Africa Center for International Law and Accountability (ACILA), has called for Africa's increasingly sophisticated early warning systems to be matched by timely political action, warning that the failure to act on credible warnings continues to cost countless lives across the continent.

Speaking during a high-level panel discussion at the Convening in Commemoration of Atrocities Watch Africa's (AWA's) 10-Year Anniversary, Nyarko said that while significant progress has been made over the past decade in detecting and documenting risks of mass atrocities, preventive action has too often lagged behind early warning.

The two-day conference, held July 22–23 under the theme "The Future of Mass Atrocity Prevention and Response in Africa," brought together international human rights lawyers, leading policymakers, civil society leaders, human rights advocates, and international partners to assess a decade of progress, challenges, and lessons in preventing mass atrocities across the continent.

Nyarko participated in a panel on "Atrocity Prevention and Response: Evaluating the Successes, Failures, and Hard-Earned Lessons of the Past Decade," alongside Japhet Biegon, Deputy Regional Director at Amnesty International, and Janah Ncube, Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Crisis Action.

Addressing the panel, Nyarko presented a sobering assessment of atrocity crimes across Africa over the period 2016–2026, arguing that while early warning mechanisms have improved, they have too often failed to trigger the decisive political action needed to prevent mass atrocities.

"Early warning without early action costs lives," Nyarko emphasized, arguing that repeated failures to act on credible warnings have allowed conflicts to escalate into humanitarian catastrophes.

Drawing on ACILA's research, Nyarko outlined the major atrocity situations that have defined the continent over the past decade, including conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and Cameroon. He highlighted allegations of war crimes, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, conflict-related sexual violence, and genocide, while documenting the immense human toll.

Nyarko noted that these conflicts have resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of displaced persons, with Sudan's current conflict estimated to have claimed more than 150,000 lives since April 2023, while Ethiopia's Tigray conflict resulted in an estimated 400,000 deaths between 2020 and 2022. Persistent violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Sahel, and other parts of the continent, he said, continues to expose civilians to widespread and systematic atrocities despite repeated warnings from national, regional, and international actors.

Beyond documenting atrocities, Nyarko examined the mixed record of accountability during the past decade. He pointed to ongoing investigations by the International Criminal Court (ICC), domestic prosecutions, hybrid courts, and regional accountability initiatives. However, he cautioned that justice has often been undermined by political divisions, weak national institutions, the failure to execute arrest warrants, and inadequate support for accountability mechanisms.

One of the defining lessons of the decade, Nyarko argued, is that advances in technology have outpaced political will.

"Technology has transformed our ability to detect, document, and verify atrocity crimes," he said. "Satellite imagery, open-source investigations, digital evidence, and improved documentation have strengthened early warning and accountability efforts. Yet these advances have not consistently translated into rapid preventive action."

He identified several structural obstacles that continue to undermine atrocity prevention, including geopolitical rivalries within the United Nations Security Council, inconsistent regional responses, inadequate funding for peace operations, shrinking civic space, disinformation campaigns, and the proliferation of armed groups fueled by competition over natural resources.

Nyarko also highlighted examples where preventive diplomacy and accountability mechanisms demonstrated that timely action can save lives. These included ECOWAS preventive diplomacy in The Gambia, and African Union mediation that contributed to the 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in Ethiopia.

Reflecting on the guiding questions of the panel, Nyarko stressed that the past decade has reinforced the importance of political leadership, regional ownership, victim-centered justice, and stronger cooperation between governments, regional organizations, and civil society. He also underscored the need to adapt advocacy strategies to an era increasingly shaped by propaganda, misinformation, artificial intelligence, and deepfakes, while safeguarding the integrity of digital evidence used in accountability processes.

Looking ahead, Nyarko called for stronger political commitment to prevention, full operationalization of African justice mechanisms, sustainable investment in peacebuilding and conflict prevention, greater protection for civil society and independent media, and renewed efforts to end impunity before violence escalates.

"The greatest failure of the past decade has not been the absence of early warning," Nyarko concluded. "It has been the absence of early action. Atrocity prevention ultimately depends on political courage, regional leadership, and accountability before violence spirals beyond control."

On his part, Biegon shared how technology has helped to reshape the strategic timeline for documenting and verifying atrocities and establishing chain of custody evidence.

Ncube also emphasized the important role civil society plays when it has agency and its activated, highlighting that where agency has happened, success occurs in atrocity prevention.

The panel also explored how the policy and practice of atrocity prevention have evolved over the past decade, examining the factors that have enabled or hindered preventive action, lessons learned from recent crises, the role of emerging technologies in documenting atrocity crimes and preserving evidence, and how advocates can respond more effectively to disinformation while promoting truth and accountability.

The anniversary conference commemorated ten years of Atrocities Watch Africa's work in monitoring, documenting, and advocating for the prevention of atrocity crimes across Africa. It also provided an important platform for reflection on strengthening Africa's atrocity prevention architecture and building more effective, coordinated responses to emerging threats in the decade ahead.