Global Security at a Crossroads: Persistent Conflicts, Technological Transformation and the Emerging Geopolitical Order

Dr. J. Scott Younger, International Chancellor of the President University in Indonesia,Honorary Senior Research Fellow of the Glasgow University,Member of IFIMES Advisory Board

There has been little change in the Middle East over the last period, except the Straits of Hormuz have been finally unblocked by Iran and oil trade is now picking up. Oil tankers passing through the Straits, while the US and Iran continue their difficult dialogue with hopefully lasting peace as an outcome, although uncertain at this time

To digress somewhat, there are other areas of ongoing strife in the world which gain little attention.

Myanmar: The Overlooked Conflict with Global Strategic Implications

Myanmar is brought to mind following the military coup of a few years ago, where the democratically elected government of Aung San Su Kyi was toppled. There has been a growing civil war with most of the people of Myanmar not accepting the military regime. At this time, the military have a hold on less than half of the country, but are slowly gaining more territory with assistance from China and Russia; they find it very convenient, especially China, to be able to access the S. African sub-continent via Myanmar, important for influence and for trade. Myanmar tends to be ‘hidden’ from the world, although it is a member of ASEAN, arguably the least developed member of this bloc. With an enforced military government, it is out of order with the rest of the countries within the ASEAN Bloc. It separates the Far East, the remaining countries that make up ASEAN, from the Indian sub-continent. The geography of Myanmar, 2000km long, is such that it divides Southeast Asia from the Indian subcontinent and countries to the west.

In addition, the centuries old religious wars emanating in the Middle East continue to this day and can be seen in locations, for example, south of the Sahara, usually caused by fundamental Islam, versions of Al Qaeda. In other words, there is strife going on somewhere in the world, the human condition, which has been continuing for millennia, more or less since the beginning of mankind’s time on Earth.

The Transformation of Warfare, Technology and the Global Order

One of the main differences over the past years, since WWII, concerns the advances in weaponry in use. Notable changes came from about mid- 20th century, in phase with the developments taking place in parallel with those of the computer. Furthermore, continuing developments with the computer allowed NASA to make significant explorations in space.

The advances in weaponry have included developments in rockets which can carry warheads thousands of miles to deliver severe damage, if not complete destruction. More recently, the appearance of drones, carrying deadly payloads, can be directed with a fair degree of accuracy to strike a key enemy target some hundreds of miles distant. Ships are also now being adapted to drone warfare. There is little doubt that the ‘rules’ of war are considerably altering from those holding in the mid-20th century.

Along with these developments, the structure of the world changed from the 1960s. The days following the end of WWII brought about the end of the idea of empires, which had been in existence for the past few centuries mostly by European nations, Britain, France, for example. These were superseded by the new world development of the United Nations, formed in 1945, although the idea had been under discussion for a few years.

The decades from the 1960s have witnessed a highly significant change in the reproduction rate of the human species as well as the expected average length of time that a life is generated. A key part of this has been the successful output of much of medical research which has seen the lifespan of human beings nearly doubled in seventy years. In terms of population, this has increased three-fold since the 1960s, now 9 billion and expected to be approximately 12 billion by about 2080 before declining thereafter as the end of the century approaches.

An outcome of this increase in population is the notable amount of green- house gases (GHGs) that are generated compared with that of 70 years ago. Little change had occurred in the 1960s compared with 150 years before, the onset of the Industrial revolution, when the population stood at a little under a billion. In the meeting held in Paris in 2015 under the auspices of the UN, much was made of the warming climate but not often is one reminded of the parallel spectacular increase in the population.

Ongoing Wars and the Stagnation of Global Conflict Resolution

In conclusion, returning to the situation in the Middle East, there has been little change to witness over the past six months, in addition to that of the war continuing in Ukraine and the strife in other parts of the world. The US has a mixed track record, some say that the record is poor, of finishing wars in which it is involved, and the current ongoing stand-off with Iran seems as if it is falling into the same mould.

Putin in Russia is not making headway in the war that he started in Ukraine over 4 years ago, but he is reluctant to admit his error and therefore to make a peace deal and take his small ‘winnings’ to date. In the meantime, Russia faces losses, which accumulate. Perhaps the people of Russia are wakening up to Putin’s poor record after 27 years in charge?

Returning to drone warfare, which has become more sophisticated over the time of the war in Ukraine. It is interesting to note that the UK has just announced some changes to the way in which it is going to arm its defences for the future, taking note of the relative success of the drones in Ukraine. The changes taking place are a harbinger of more to come.

Reference:
Younger, J.S. & Cook, J. R. (2026), eds. Sustainable development: challenges and assessment in Civil Engineering, Publ. CRC Press.

About the author:
Dr. J. Scott Younger, OBE, is a professional civil engineer; he spent 42 years in the Far East undertaking assignments in 10 countries for WB, ADB, UNDP. He published many papers; he was a columnist for Forbes Indonesia and Globe Asia. He served on British & European Chamber boards and was a Vice Chair of Int’l Business Chamber for 17 years. His expertise is infrastructure and sustainable development and he takes an interest in international affairs. He is an International Chancellor of the President University, Indonesia and Honorary Senior Research Fellow of the Glasgow University. He is a member of IFIMES Advisory Board. Lived and worked in Thailand from 1978 to 1983 and visited Burma, Bangladesh and Nepal for projects.