Is Nigeria in a Better Place Today Than It Was Before President Tinubu Took Office?

On any given morning in Nigeria, the true state of the nation is not found in government reports or economic forecasts—it is written on the faces of ordinary people. It is in the commercial bus driver in Lagos calculating whether his earnings can still cover the cost of fuel. It is in the mother in Aba carefully removing items from her shopping basket because food prices have risen yet again. It is in the young graduate in Abuja sending out dozens of job applications with little hope of a response. And it is in the farmer in Benue who worries as much about security as he does about the coming harvest.

These stories define Nigeria far more than political rhetoric. Three years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office, Nigerians continue to ask a question that will shape future elections and public opinion alike: Is Nigeria truly in a better place today than it was before May 29, 2023? The answer is neither black nor white. It is a story of difficult reforms, painful sacrifices, cautious optimism, and lingering hardship.

A Nation That Could No Longer Continue as Before

When President Tinubu took office, Nigeria was burdened by mounting economic pressures. Fuel subsidies had become increasingly unsustainable, government revenues were under severe strain, foreign exchange policies discouraged investment, inflation was already climbing, and public confidence in the economy had weakened. The new administration responded almost immediately. Fuel subsidies were removed. The foreign exchange market was liberalized. Both decisions were bold. Both were controversial. Supporters described them as courageous steps that previous governments had postponed for years. Critics viewed them as reforms introduced without adequate protection for vulnerable citizens. Regardless of political affiliation, there is little disagreement on one point: these decisions fundamentally changed Nigeria’s economic direction.

When Reform Meets Reality
Economic reforms rarely begin with celebration. For millions of Nigerians, they began with higher transport fares, rising food prices, increasing electricity costs, and shrinking purchasing power. Families who once managed comfortably suddenly found themselves making painful compromises. Some reduced the number of meals eaten each day. Others postponed medical treatment. Parents struggled to keep children in school as household budgets came under unprecedented pressure. Small business owners watched operating costs rise while customers’ spending declined. Behind every inflation statistic is a real family making impossible choices. That human reality cannot—and should not—be ignored.

Looking Beyond Today’s Pain
Yet there is another side to Nigeria’s story. Supporters of the Tinubu administration argue that the reforms were not designed to produce immediate comfort but to prevent long-term economic decline. Years of fuel subsidies and foreign exchange distortions had weakened public finances and discouraged investment. Maintaining those policies, they argue, would only have delayed a deeper crisis. There are signs supporting this view. Government revenues have improved. Foreign exchange market distortions have eased. Investor confidence has shown signs of recovery, while international financial institutions have acknowledged improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability. These are encouraging indicators. However, economic stability measured in reports is not always felt in households. For many Nigerians, the promise of tomorrow remains overshadowed by the realities of today.

The Economy Is Not the Whole Story
A nation’s progress cannot be measured by economics alone. Security remains one of Nigeria’s greatest challenges. Communities continue to confront kidnapping, banditry, insurgency, and communal violence. Farmers still fear attacks during planting seasons. Businesses remain cautious about expanding into insecure areas. Economic growth loses much of its meaning if citizens cannot travel safely, farm confidently, or conduct business without fear. Development is ultimately about improving people’s quality of life—not merely improving statistics.

Between Hope and Hardship
Perhaps the greatest paradox of today’s Nigeria is that two realities exist simultaneously. The country’s economic foundations may be stronger than they were three years ago. Yet many Nigerians feel poorer. The government can point to reforms that economists have advocated for years. Citizens can point to empty wallets, rising prices, and declining purchasing power. Both perspectives are valid because both reflect different dimensions of the same national experience.

The True Test of Leadership
History rarely judges leaders solely by the boldness of their decisions. It judges them by their outcomes. President Tinubu’s reforms may eventually transform Nigeria into a more resilient economy. They may attract greater investment, strengthen public finances, and create lasting opportunities. But history will ask an even more important question:

Did those reforms improve the lives of ordinary Nigerians? If families eventually experience affordable food, stable prices, meaningful employment, improved healthcare, quality education, and greater security, today’s sacrifices may be remembered as necessary. If not, history will judge the reforms differently.

Conclusion
Nigeria today is neither the same country President Tinubu inherited nor the prosperous nation many Nigerians still hope to see. It is simply a nation in transition. Its economic foundations appear stronger, but its people continue to endure significant hardship. Whether these two paths eventually converge into genuine national prosperity remains the defining question of this administration. Until that answer becomes clear, perhaps the most honest conclusion is this:

Nigeria’s recovery cannot be measured only by economic indicators or government achievements. It will ultimately be measured by whether the ordinary Nigerian—the trader, the teacher, the farmer, the artisan, the entrepreneur, and the unemployed graduate—can genuinely say that life is better than it was before. Only then will the debate be settled—not by politicians or commentators, but by the people themselves.

Georges Macnobleson-Idowu, a UK-based Nigerian veteran journalist,

Writes in from the Birmingham.