Why Dr. Bawumia Cannot Win Any Presidential Elections In Ghana

This is the tribal, ethnic and religious population of Ghana, any wise political party that has gone through a humiliating defeat, looking at this data, will not make Dr. Do Little a flagbearer.

NOW LET'S DO SIMPLE ANALYSIS HERE.

THE MAMPRUSIS PEOPLE

The population of Mamprusi people in Ghana is estimated to be around 434,000 as of the data from Joshua Project. The Mamprusi are an ethnic group primarily located in the North East Region of Ghana, with communities also in the Upper East and Upper West Regions.

Here are some key details:

• Estimated Population: Approximately 434,000.
• Primary Location: The North East Region of Ghana, in towns like Nalerigu, Gambaga, and Walewale.
• Other Regions: They also inhabit parts of the Upper East Region, including Bawku and Bolgatanga, and the Upper West Region.
• Language: They speak Mampruli, a Gur language.
• Origin: Their traditional homeland is the Upper East Region, specifically around Nalerigu.

THE KUSASI PEOPLE

The population of the Kusasi (or Kusaal) people in Ghana is estimated to be around 729,000, according to Joshua Project. Another source, PeopleGroups.org states their population is 688,000 as of August 2025.

Key Details

• Location: They are primarily found in the Bawku Traditional Area of Ghana's Upper East Region.
• Language: They speak the Kusaal language, which is a Gur language.
• Global Presence: There are also Kusasi people in southern Burkina Faso and a smaller number in Togo

THE ASHANTI PEOPLE

The population of Ashanti people in Ghana is estimated to be over 5 million, or roughly 28% of the total population. This number is drawn from the 2021 Ghana Census data for the Ashanti Region, where the majority of the population identifies as Ashanti and speaks the Akan language, Twi.

Key Details

• Population: More than 5 million people.
• Percentage of Ghana's Population: About 28% of the total population in Ghana.
• Region: Primarily located in the Ashanti Region of Ghana.
• Ethnic Group: The Ashanti are a subgroup of the larger Akan ethnic group.
• Language: The predominant language is Asante Twi, a dialect of the Akan language.
• Historical Significance: The Ashanti developed the powerful Ashanti Empire, which was a major force in the region's history.

THE FANTE PEOPLE

The population of the Fante tribe in Ghana is estimated to be between 4.5 and 5 million people, making them a significant portion of the Akan people and a substantial part of Ghana's population. The Fante are one of the major Akan ethnic groups, primarily residing in the central and southern coastal regions of Ghana. &

Key Details

Population:

Approximately 4.5 to 5 million people.

Significance:

They are the second-largest grouping of Akan people and constitute roughly 13-14% of Ghana's total population. o

Location:

The Fante people are concentrated in Ghana's central and southern coastal areas, particularly around the regions of Cape Coast and Elmina.

Cultural Context:

They are a sub-group of the larger Akan ethnic group and speak a dialect of the Akan language, which is part of the Kwa group.

RELIGION AND ETHNIC POPULATION OF GHANA

Ethnic groups: Akan 47.5%, Mole-Dagbon 16.6%, Ewe 13.9%, Ga-Dangme 7.4%, Gurma 5.7%, Guan 3.7%, Grusi 2.5%, Mande-Busanga 1.1%, Other 1.6%.

Religions

Christian 71.2% (Pentecostal/Charismatic 28.3%, Protestant 18.4%, Catholic 13.1%, Other 11.4%), Muslim 17.6%, Traditional 5.2%, Other 0.8%, None

5.2%. Languages Asante 14.8%, Ewe 12.7%, Fante 9.9%, Boron (Brong) 4.6%, Dagomba 4.3%, Dangme 4.3%, Dagarte (Dagaba) 3.7%, Akyem 3.4%, Ga 3.4%, Akuapem 2.9%, Other (includes

English (official)) 36.1%

Literacy rate is 71.5% of the total population, Male: 78.3% Female: 65.3%

Whatever you do with this data is up to you but my opinion is; Looking at the data above, the NPP has the chance rule Ghana for life but because of bad decisions of leadership, we lost 2024 elections, we did't just lose the election, it was a total annihilation!

As we go for primaries in January, 2026 to chose a new leader, I pray the NPP will come back to it sense and make the best decision to help us win 2028 elections

Someone will argue that JOHN DRAMANI MAHAMA is a Gonja but won two elections in Ghana, let's do that analysis too.

THE GONJA PEOPLE

The population of the Gonja people is approximately 384,000 to 426,000, with most sources placing them in Ghana, specifically within the Northern Region. This people group, also known as the Guang, is part of a larger ethnic cluster within Sub-Saharan Africa.

Key Details

• Population Estimates: Sources show figures ranging from 384,000 to 426,000 people.
• Location: The Gonja people are primarily located in Ghana.
• Language: Their primary language is Gonja, also known as Ngbanya or Ngbanyito.
• Ethnicity: They are part of the larger Guan ethnic group.

This shows that the GONJA population is small but how did John Mahama win elections agains Dr. Bawumia? The magic was the fact that he used his 71% Christian population as an advantage. Whiles John Mahama gained the Christian advantage, he also agained a significant muslim advantage as compared to Dr. Bawumia who himself is a muslim.

Some will ask why did Nana Addo lost to John Dramani Mahama in 2012 if we want to go by the tribal line.

THE AKYEM POPULATION IN GHANA

The Akyem population in Ghana is estimated at over 1 million people, with figures of 1,035,000 and 1,128,000 provided by different sources. They are a subgroup of the Akan ethnic group, primarily residing in the Eastern Region of southern Ghana. Key Akyem states include Akyem Abuakwa, Akyem Kotoku, and Akyem Bosome.

Population Figures

~1.1 million: PeopleGroups.org estimates their population at 1,035,000.

~1.1 million: Joshua Project provides a slightly higher figure of 1,128,000 for the Akan-Akyem people group.

Location and Key Areas

Eastern Region:

The Akyem states are mainly located in the Eastern Region of southern Ghana.

Akan States:

The term "Akyem" refers to a group of four distinct states: Akyem Abuakwa, Akyem Kotoku, Akyem Bosome, and the region of Asante Akim.

Looking at the Akyem population and the fact that they are part of the Akan ethnic group, Nana Akufo Addo should have won against John Mahama.

It'simple, the Akyems are not united as the Ashantis and other tribes who are easily manipulated by affiliations

Some parts of the Akyems didn't want Nana Addo to be president for the fear of the Okyehene who by history is the overload of the Akyems to rise to take his rightful place.

Even now, many are the rebels fighting the Okyehene as the overlord Lord. The Ashantis who could support Nana Addo to win elections were not sure of him because of the perceived tribal rift between the Ashantis and the Akyems then. It took the Asantehene and the Okyehene to show that Akyems and Asante has no tribal issues. (In the near future i will tell you the role of Dormaahene in the 2024 victory of the NDC and how he was able to break the Asante and Akyem hold of the presidency)

In 2016, they were able to dispel the misconceptions and with the total confidence of the Ashantis in Nana Addo, he won the 2016 and 2020 elections.

REASON WHY DR. BAWUMIA CANNOT WIN 2028 ELECTION. (Note this analysis is base on tribe and religion)

This is one of many resons that i will tell my readers in my subsequent write-up. Dr. Bawumia cannot win the elections because he belongs to a minority tribe which has a lot of troubles with other tribes in the northern regions, he belongs to a minority region of 17%.

Out of the 17% he cannot even pull 10% votes of his own region.

Also the Bawku conflict has a signant effect, the Kusasi's see Dr. Bawumia presidency as a big threat to their existance and dominance in Bawku, a perception that the Bawumia team has failed to dispel. Also most tribes in the north, especially in the upper east region are sympathetic towards the Kusasi's. They believe the Mamprusis's are claiming what is not theirs. Many may say there is a similar issue between the Bonos and the Ashantis, I must say this is different. The Mamprusis never conquered the Kusasis in a war, neither did they ever took dominance of Bawku, they were invited in hence cannot claim to own Bawku. The Asantes settled in most parts of the Bono lands through war dominance and there is no history of Asantehene installing an Asante as a chief on Bono land. Clearly these are two different issues looking at my explanation above.

The Mamprusi and Kusasi ethnic groups in Bawku, have been engaged in a long-standing, enduring ethnic conflict (Not War) with recurring violent clashes and deaths since its beginnings in the late 1950s or early 1960s, and more intensely in the 21st century. While not a single, formal war, the conflict is a series of intermittent but violent struggles rooted in chieftaincy disputes, historical claims to land and leadership, and exacerbated by factors like the proliferation of weapons, political interference, and socio-economic issues

They kusasis and other tribes of the time north lost total confidence in the NPP and the peace accord when a rival chief of Bawku was flown in a military helicopter to bawku despite a court injunction against his enskinment. An action the previous NPP government could not provide any explanations to. But i am aware this was done in the blind sight of the president then. This action was plan, executed by Dr. Bawumia, an action that caused him a lot in the 2024 elections. No smart politician will take this action when election was few months away.

Today's Analysis is not about Kennedy Agyapong and Bawumia but let me hasten to add that, KEN has no tribal, region issues, infact some think his episode on expose percieved fake pastors has effect on his bid to president, no! Most chistians were happy and ok with his decison to go after men of God.

These analysis clearly show Dr. Bawumia cannot win any presidential elections in Ghana. The best the NPP can do if they want to win election is to change him as the flagbearer. The NPP is broken into four parts, The Alan group, Kennedy group, the Asante Mafias and the Akyem Mafia. Bawumia has no hold, he is like a tenant who could be evicted by owner of the house atime, such candidate should not be allowed to destroy the the party

Here we are today struck by a political tsunami of 2024 that threatens the very existence of the NPP. For a start, young and old, men and women must work hard to avoid a candidate of issues that has the tendency to rub the NPP of victory in 2028. If the NPP loses the 2028 election coming back to the presidency will be difficult. A word to the wise in the north!

My next analysis will be on Kennedy Agyapong against Dr. Bawumia. Achievements, track records, consistency, personality.

By Joseph Osei Oppong-Brenya, Former director, NEIP