Kudus Research and Advocacy Center a Ghanaian based Organization would like to look into the upcoming federal election of Canada, we would look into the election electoral system date electoral reforms redistricting, party and candidates to contest the elections, what caused the snap elections, key issues going to the general elections, parties and Prime Minister candidates head-to-head opinion polls and finally possible party to win majority and possible Prime Minister
The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The writs of election were issued on March 23, 2025, after Governor General Mary Simon accepted a request to dissolve parliament from Prime Minister Mark Carney. This will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census.
We looked into Canada's electoral system, a "first-past-the-post" system, is formally referred to as a single-member plurality system. Voters select a representative nominated for their electoral district (sometimes referred to as a riding), and the candidate with more votes than any other candidate is elected to a seat in the 343-member House of Commons and represents that riding as its member of Parliament (MP). The party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons usually forms government, with that party's leader becoming prime minister. The largest party by seat count that is not the government or part of a governing coalition becomes the Official Opposition. That party receives more finances and privileges than the other opposition parties. An absolute majority of the votes cast in the last election is not needed to form government and is rarely achieved. Additionally, the government party does not need to obtain a majority of the seats in the House of Commons; under the current multi-party system, it is common for the government party to lack a majority. However, to pass bills, the governing party must have support of a majority of MPs. Without majority support, the government can be defeated, then a new party is named government or an election has to be held.
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center look into the Date of the election: Under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election, the election was scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025. However, elections can occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for a snap election or after the government loses a vote on a supply bill or a specific motion of no confidence. On March 20, 2024, the government introduced the Electoral Participation Act, which included an amendment to the Canada Elections Act that would have changed the fixed election date to October 27, 2025, to avoid conflicting with Diwali, as well as municipal elections in Alberta. The bill died on the order paper when the Parliament of Canada was prorogued by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after he announced his resignation. On March 23, 2025, after a request from Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Governor General dissolved parliament and called an election for April 28, 2025. This will be the first Canadian federal election under the reign of King Charles III, who acceded to the throne in 2022. The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20, 2021, saw only minor changes from the preceding 2019 election. The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, did not win the popular vote and failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, winning only a plurality of seats and retaining its status as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition. In March 2022, the Liberals struck a deal with the fourth-place New Democratic Party (NDP), where the latter would provide confidence and supply for the duration of the Parliament in exchange for certain policy concessions. The agreement lasted until September 2024, when the NDP terminated the deal. One week after the election, on September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader, citing lack of party support. The subsequent leadership election was won by former leader Elizabeth May, who ran on a "joint ticket" with Jonathan Pedneault, proposing a co-leadership model; Pedneault was officially named the deputy leader, pending a change to the party's constitution to allow co-leadership. May and Pedneault formally became co-leaders on February 4, 2025.On February 2, 2022, Conservative leader Erin O'Toole was removed as leader by a caucus vote. Following a leadership election, Pierre Poilievre was elected the new leader of the Conservative Party.
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center looked into the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution this will be the first election contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by Elections Canada. Liberal current seats of 160 will change to 157 a decrease by 3 seats, Conservative current seats of 119 will change to 126 increases by 7 seats, Bloc Québécois currents seats of 32 will change to 34 increases by 2 seats, New Democratic current seats of 25 will change to 24 a decrease by 1 seat, Green current 2 seats remain steady and finally Total seats of 338 will increase by 5 making a total of 343 seats up for contest in the April 28, 2025 federal elections.
Kudus Research and Advocacy also looked into the 2024–2025 Canadian political crises and 2025 Liberal Party of Canada leadership election. The government was plunged into a political crisis on December 16, 2024, when finance minister Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned, only hours before she was set to present the government's fall economic statement, due to her opposition to Trudeau's fiscal policy. Trudeau, who had already faced down a caucus revolt in October, was faced with renewed questions about his leadership. By December 22, 21 Liberal MPs had publicly called for Trudeau to step down. On January 6, 2025, Trudeau announced his intention to resign as prime minister after the party elected his successor. The ensuing leadership election was won by Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada. Carney was sworn in as prime minister on March 14.
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center looked into Nominated candidates for the 2025 Canadian federal election: Liberal - Mark Carney, Conservative - Pierre Poilievre, Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet, New Democratic - Jagmeet Singh, Green - Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault, People’s - Maxime Bernier Independent and No Affiliation: Marxist–Leninist - Anna Di Carlo, Christian Heritage - Rodney L. Taylor, Rhinoceros - Chinook B. Blais-Leduc, Communist - Elizabeth Rowley, Centrist - A.Q. Rana, Canadian Future - Dominic Cardy, Libertarian - Jacques Y. Boudreau, United - Grant S. Abraham, Animal Protection - Liz White, Marijuana - Blair T. Longley. The Liberals have been in government since 2015 and had 152 seats in Parliament at dissolution. The party was previously led by Justin Trudeau, who formally stepped down as prime minister on March 14 to allow Carney to take up the post. The Conservative Party served as Canada’s official opposition, with 120 seats in the previous Parliament. The party is led by Pierre Poilievre, an Ottawa-area legislator known for his populist rhetoric. The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, had 24 parliamentary seats before the campaign was launched. The NDP had previously been propping up a Trudeau-led Liberal minority government but withdrew from that deal in September of last year. The Bloc Quebecois – which only runs candidates in the French-speaking province of Quebec – had 33 legislators in the House of Commons. They are led by Yves-Francois Blanchet. Apart from the four big parties, there is also the Green Party of Canada, which had two seats in Parliament at dissolution but is not expected to make any major gains in the upcoming vote.
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center also look into debates as in its May 2022 report, the Leaders' Debates Commission recommended various improvements for future debates, and that it remain a permanent publicly funded entity to organize leaders' debates. In October 2024, the Leaders' Debate Commission announced that the English-language debate will be hosted by TVO's Steve Paikin, while the French-language debate will be hosted by Ici RDI's Patrice Roy. TVA Nouvelles had announced plans to host its own French-language debate with the Bloc, Conservative, Liberal, and NDP leaders, but canceled the event after the Liberal Party withdrew. On April 1, 2025, the Commission announced that it had invited the leaders of the Bloc Québécois, Conservative Party, Green Party, Liberal Party, and New Democratic Party to the debates. The People's Party was not invited, as it did not meet the criteria for either holding a seat in Parliament or polling at least 4%.
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center looked into what issues will dominate the race? Opposition parties – including, most notably, Poilievre and the Conservatives – had hoped the 2025 election would center on affordability issues, such as soaring grocery and housing costs. But Trump’s tariffs and threats to make Canada into the US’s “51st state” have upended the conversation. Experts now say the central “ballot question” in the election campaign will be which party is best equipped to handle Trump and manage Canada-US ties. Canada’s main political party leaders have acknowledged Canadians’ concerns over Trump’s policies, promising to stand up for the country’s sovereignty. (Source: Al Jazeera)
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center finally looked into opinion polls: The latest poll by Ipsos puts the Liberals with a double-digit lead over the Tories among decided voters. The Liberals are up to 46 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives at 34 per cent of the vote nationally if the vote was held April 6. Mark Carney’s party is leading in Ontario, B.C., Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the poll predicts. The Liberals’ lead is back up to six points over the Conservatives on Day 20 of the 36-day federal election campaign. A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 10 has the Liberals at 44 per cent over the Conservatives who have stayed at 38 per cent nationally. The New Democratic Party remains in single digits at nine per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (two per cent)
Regionally, chief data scientist Nik Nanos calls it an east versus west “showdown” with the Liberals leading in Eastern Canada, the Conservatives leading in the Prairies and British Columbia being a “toss-up.”. The Conservatives saw gains earlier this week in seat-rich Ontario where they reached 41 per cent, but over the past three days they’re back down to 37 per cent -- versus the Liberals who have gone up a few points and sit at 51 per cent. The Liberals continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives dominate with 53 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 39 per cent for the Liberals, and in B.C., where it’s a very tight race with the parties statistically tied and the Conservatives up by less than a percentage point. The Liberals are leading in Quebec and are up a few points at 43 per cent, compared with the Conservatives at 24. The Bloc Quebecois are in second place and have gone down a few points, at 25 per cent. The Liberals continue to lead in the Atlantic region, meanwhile, with 51 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 43 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP are far behind in the region at six per cent. The East-West division speaks to the political tensions within the federation,” said Nanos, the official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail. “Surely for voters in the Prairies, where the Conservatives enjoy a 25-point lead, it must be difficult to fathom how there are people supporting the Liberals. Conversely in the East, voters likely underestimate the intensity of pro-Conservative views among Westerners.”
Until as recently as January, the Conservatives had what many believed to be a clear path to winning a parliamentary majority. But Trump’s threats against Canada, coupled with Trudeau’s decision to resign and Carney’s rise as the new leader of the Liberal Party, have changed things: Most recent polls now suggest the Liberals either with a lead over the Tories, or locked in a neck-and-neck fight with their rivals. The CBC News Poll Tracker, which aggregates national polling data, had the Liberals with 37.5 percent support compared with 37.1 percent for the Conservatives on Sunday. The NDP was in third with 11.6 percent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 6.4 percent. The Greens had 3.8 percent. “The Liberals and Conservatives are effectively tied in national polls with the New Democrats trailing in a distant third place,” CBC reported as the election race began. “The Liberals would likely win the most seats, and potentially a majority government, if the election were held today due to the more efficient distribution of their support across the country.” Also in Mid-January the conservative had a lead as wide as 26% point to that of his Liberal counterpart but polling now shows the Liberals could secure a majority in the upcoming elections, President Trumps threats of imposing steep tariffs and make Canada as 51st state of US has led to rise in Canadian nationalist calls for unit in defense of their sovereignty that saw a shift in support for Conservative party and its leader whom many saw as pro Trump to that of the Liberal candidate Mark Carney which is backed by the a research or polls conducted by Ipsos March 20, 2025 that suggest that about 41% of respondents favored Liberal candidate Mark Carney to handle Trump very well as compare to 31% for Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre, also the research find out that 43% of respondents favored Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre will easily roll over and accept Trumps demands of which many seen as national security concerns, Kudus Research and Advocacy Center also noted that the gains in polls by the Liberal Party was purely as a result of change in party leadership or candidates from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney whom many saw as a disappointments within his party and the coalition government that he was heading a classic example is the resignation of the finance minister of Trudeau government.
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center looked into who is preferred prime minister of Canada? When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney still has a comfortable lead, with 47 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who has risen a few points over the past week and now sits at 34 per cent. A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be far more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty-one per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 29 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Eleven per cent of women back the NDP. Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is down a few points at 36 per cent, compared with 47 per cent for the Conservatives (unchanged). Only six per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center in conclusion at about 95% confident levels that the federal elections of Canada are two horse-race between the Liberal Party its Prime Minister Candidate Mark Carney and that of the Conservative party and its Prime Minister candidate Pierre Poilievre. if everything above is to go by and remain the same the Liberal Party and its candidates Mark Carney will win majority of the seats despite the redistricting favoring the Conservative party but may fall short of an outright majority when it comes to parliamentary proceedings votes, fellow by the Conservative Party and its PM candidate Pierre Poilievre as the main opposition party but also if last minutes changes and amends are made then it could change as polls suggest nationally they are both neck in neck to each other in key domestic issues, Hence they could be yet again a coalition government. We anticipate or project based on our in-dept analysis but the Canadian voters would be the best judges to judge whom to represent them at the 45th House of Commons or parliament in their respective districts and finally who becomes their Prime Minister lies sole on their bosom.
Sign By:
Yussif Abdul Kudus
Founder & Executive Director
Kudus Research and Advocacy Center
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