NDC Unlikely To Win The 2024 Elections – A Trend-Based Analysis

Data-driven evidence suggests that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) faces slim chances of securing victory in Ghana’s 2024 elections. Careful TREND ANALYSIS indicates that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) has consistently grown in key swing regions, MAKING IT MORE LIKELY TO EMERGE VICTORIOUS.

In both the Greater Accra and Central regions, critical swing areas, historical trends favour the NPP over the NDC. No party has ever won the Greater Accra Region by more than 52%, a fact substantiated by electoral data. Even if the NDC manages to win the region in 2024, it is unlikely to secure more than 52% of the votes. In the Central Region, the NDC has typically won by slimmer margins compared to the NPP. When the NPP wins there, it tends to do so by a larger margin, a pattern verifiable by previous election results. For 2024, the NPP is expected to keep these margins close or even improve them.

Furthermore, with Dr Mahamudu Bawumia as the NPP's presidential candidate, the party has a real chance of making gains in the Northern Region. Since 2004, the NDC's support in the region has declined by over 8%, while the NPP has seen an increase of more than 10%. In 2020, President Nana Akufo-Addo secured over 46% of the vote in the Northern Region, and Bawumia’s candidacy could push that figure beyond 50%. Even if he doesn’t win outright, closing the margin to over 48% would still be a significant achievement. Bawumia is also expected to secure a strong victory in his home region with not less than 54%. If loyalty and acceptance favour him, he could do 60%. Additionally, he could make notable inroads in the Upper East, Upper West, and Savannah regions, although these areas may not dramatically affect the overall election outcome.

The regions likely to play the most decisive role in Bawumia's potential victory are Ashanti, Eastern, and Western. In the Ashanti Region, Bawumia could win around 75% of the vote, a slight increase of over 2% from the 2020 results. Given that the NPP won 76% in 2016 while in opposition, achieving this target with the right strategy is feasible. The Eastern Region, another NPP stronghold, is expected to maintain its 60% support. Any increase here would further bolster the NPP’s position. NPP may not slide below 60%. While the NPP may see a slight decline in the Western Region, a win is still likely, ensuring the party retains an edge over the NDC.

Volta Region is likely to disappoint NDC. Except for 2008 and 2012, where NPP fell short in the region, Nana Addo made a steady enrol with 10% and 14.1% in 2016 and 2020 respectively. With current sentiment in the region and especially the Amewu's effect, the region might hold an opinion that NDC hasn't been fair to them. If the TREND continues NPP is likely to increase their votes from 14.1% to some 17%. Even a modest increase in NPP votes in this region could have a noteworthy impact.

Meanwhile, NDC victories in regions such as Oti, Bono East, and Western North are unlikely to influence the overall outcome significantly, as these areas tend to have limited electoral weight. On the other hand, the NPP, by TREND, is tipped to win in the Ahafo and Bono regions, balancing out any gains the NDC might make in the former areas.

The NDC's overreliance on the narrative and campaign that “GHANA IS HARD” may not resonate strongly enough with voters in 2024. THE DYNAMICS FAR EXCEED SENTIMENTS. The positive effects of policies like the Free SHS program will likely come into full play, with many parents and beneficiaries inclined to show appreciation by voting for the NPP. NDC is doing everything to sway this reality by fronting many adverts but parents and beneficiaries may have made their minds made up. Bawumia is also likely to gain significant support from the Zongo and Muslim communities, and his focus on policy-driven campaigning and bold solutions may appeal to undecided or floating voters.

In all, the NDC seems to be aware of its difficult position, as evidenced by the party's current actions and heightened DESPERATION. However, barring unforeseen developments, the TRENDS point toward a clear NPP victory in 2024, WITH DR MAHAMUDU BAWUMIA SET TO BECOME GHANA’S FIRST MUSLIM PRESIDENT.

Isaac Ofori
Social Activist and Human Rights Advocate