Opta projections puts Ghana among underdogs to win 2026 World Cup

Sports data platform Opta has released its statistical projections for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, offering an early glimpse into how each of the 48 competing nations could fare at the expanded tournament across the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Ghana, set for their fifth appearance at the global showpiece, feature among the lowest-ranked African teams in the model.

The Black Stars are placed 73rd in the world, the lowest ranking among the 10 African nations qualified for the competition.

According to Opta’s projections, Ghana face slim chances of progressing deep into the tournament.

The data gives the four-time African champions a 6.8% probability of reaching the quarter-finals, while their chances of going further narrow significantly — just 0.7% to reach the final and 0.2% to lift the trophy.

At the top end of the forecast, Spain are rated as favourites with a 16% chance of winning the title.

France, the 2018 champions and 2022 finalists, follow closely with a 13% chance, while defending champions Argentina are ranked third at 11.2%.

Ghana have been drawn in Group L alongside Panama, England and Croatia.

The Black Stars will begin their campaign against Panama on June 17 at BMO Field, before facing England at Gillette Stadium on June 23. They will conclude their group fixtures against Croatia on June 27.