America’s Withdrawal From The Iran Nuclear Deal:The Possible Implications

Photo credit (Evan Vucci/AP)

On Tuesday May 8, 2018, President of the United States, Donald Trump took a very significant foreign policy decision, he announced the withdrawal of the US from the Iran Nuclear deal. The deal which was signed in 2015 between the world’s five superpowers, Germany and Iran was aim at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambition in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions by the US and the European Union.

The withdrawal of the US from the deal despite the last minute diplomatic attempts by the leaders of UK, Germany and France to prevent same did not come as a surprise. Indeed even before he came into office, President Trump had always voiced his disagreement with the deal, labelling it “a bad deal”. His opposition to the deal became stronger and fierce when he entered the White house. The signs on the wall were crystal clear that the US was not going to stay in the deal for long again.

Though the other signatories to the deal have vowed to continue to abide by the principles of the pact, It is important to point out that, this decision by the US will have far reaching consequences not just for the deal but for the Middle East and the entire world. The decision has now put Iran and Israel on the path of confrontation, especially in fragile Syria. But any confrontation between these bitter enemies will not be limited to only them, it will trigger a chain of reaction, drawing in Hezbollah of Lebanon and it also has the potential of including Russia and the US, who maybe tempted to give support to their respective allies.

In addition, whilst announcing his decision on the deal and the consequential sanctions on Iran, President Trump also indicated the readiness by the US to impose sanctions on other countries and entities that will do business with Iran. This statement is the biggest threat to the survival of the deal than just withdrawal and it also has the potential to put the US in a collision course with the four other world powers and the European Union, who have vowed to stay on the deal and deliver their end of the bargain. Given this circumstance, these countries have just two options to choose from, they must either defy the US and continue with the deal and doing business with Iran whilst risking being sanction or they also withdraw from the deal, which may also result in Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. It must be noted however that, either of these options will not be in the interest of the world.

Further more, It is a classical example of irony that, whilst announcing his decision to withdraw from a nuclear deal, President Trump also announced the visit of his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo to North Korea to finalised the much anticipated meeting between Kim Jong-Un and President Trump, a meeting that may lead to another nuclear agreement. The withdrawal from the Iran deal thus presents two obstacles, that may make it difficult for the US to succeed in making a deal with North Korea.

The first obstacle will be the need to set standards. The US withdrew from the Iran deal because the President believed it was poorly negotiated and put the US and its allies at a disadvantage. Therefore the President will have to do a better job with North Korea and get a superior deal in other to vindicate himself. However this will be difficult to do since North Korea will be negotiating from the position of strength, because unlike Iran, North Korea has acquired the nuclear weapons already.

The second obstacle will be the issue of trust on the part of America. North Korea will be very sceptical whilst negotiating. America will have a tough time convincing Kim Jong-Un that, the US will never walk away from any deal with them, even if there is a change of government in the US.

This decision by the US is a very critical one, the world is at a cross road. Therefore the international community must study the possible implications carefully and used diplomatic strategies to either prevent them or mitigate their impact.

Ibrahim Suhuyini
Ibrahimsuhuyini.blogspot.com