France's wheat production drops after scorching weather pushes early harvest

France is forecast to produce 32 million tonnes of wheat in 2026, according to the French agriculture ministry's first estimates published on Thursday.

The ministry's statistics office, Agreste, estimates the average yield at 6.93 tonnes per hectare, down from 7.42 tonnes per hectare in 2025.

This drop comes despite an increase of three percent in the amount of land planted with wheat.

Deteriorating growing conditions
The decline is largely due to deteriorating growing conditions towards the end of the season, as crops were hit by successive heatwaves, according to Agreste.

France is the European Union's biggest wheat producer and one of the world's largest wheat exporters, making its harvest an important benchmark for global grain markets.

For many French farmers, the smaller harvest is another setback after months of protests over low incomes, rising costs and regulation.

Industry groups have increasingly warned that more frequent heatwaves and droughts are adding to the financial strain on farms.

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Heat hitting harvests

Conditions for the crop were generally good until May, before early heatwaves accelerated the cereal harvest, first for barley and then for wheat.

The extreme heat also made harvesting more difficult, with restrictions introduced in some regions where even a small spark from a combine harvester could start a fire.

The biggest losses were in central and western France, which have been hit hardest hit by drought and repeated heatwaves, while northern and eastern regions generally reported better yields.

France's barley production is also expected to fall, down six percent, to 11 million tonnes, driven by a drop in spring yields of the crop that is particularly affected by the hot weather.

Other grains hit by heat

The heat has also taken a toll on maize. FranceAgriMer said crop conditions had fallen to their lowest level in at least 15 years following repeated heatwaves and a lack of rainfall.

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In its latest monthly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) left its 2026/27 global wheat crop forecast unchanged, but it cut its outlook for global maize production by 4 million tonnes, to 1.306 billion tonnes.

"Prospects for the 2026/27 maize harvest have been adversely affected by successive heatwaves in parts of Europe," the IGC said.

It lowered its forecast for France's maize forecast to 9 million tonnes, down from its previous estimate of 12 million tones.

European grain trade association Coceral has also lowered its outlook for the EU maize harvest, citing weather damage in France and Hungary.

(With newswires)